IMO it all depends on the mood of the electoral college.
At the risk of repeating what you already know, may I say that “mood” is unlikely to have any influence on the final outcome. The system works like this: each party runs a slate of “electors” in each state. The names of those people do not appear on the ballot. Only the party label and the name of its candidate appear. At a date already set by law, about 6 weeks after November 4, the electors gaining the most votes will meet in the 50 state capitals and DC, and “cast” their votes. There is no cross-talk between the electors of one state with those of another. Those 51 bundles of votes will be sealed and transported to W-DC. On arrival the bundles will be handed over to the Clerk of the Senate, or other person designated by law. He or she will open the bundles of votes in front of a joint session of Congress convened on January 3 unless by law they shall appoint another day. The electors are bound by conscience to vote for the person they have undertaken to stand for.
In terms of the popular vote McCain looks doomed no matter who he comes up against . The core supporter base of the Republican looks set to stay at home on election day. All the figures I have seen state that in the primaries the number of Dems voting far outweighs there Republican counterparts.
I could not agree with your observations more, Mr X11. To me, the biggest item is the possibility of making 2 or maybe 3 Supreme Court appointments in the next 4 years. Associate Justice John Paul Stevens is 88 years old. Born in 1920. Ruth Ginsburg is 74. Anthony Kennedy - not related to the Massachusetts Kennedy’s - is 72. Stephen Bryer is 70, and David Souter is 69. It is taken for granted the next president will have Stevens and most likely Kennedy to replace and maybe Mrs. Ginsburg. Kennedy has become the “swing” vote after O’Connor retired. He is more conservative than she was, if that is possible.
Associate justices of the Supreme Court are paid $203,000 per year as of 2006, and the chief justice receives $212,100 per year. A trick is to call retired Federal judges “senior” status, and then to give them full pay, as an incentive to retire. They usually take 1 or 2 cases a year, to “keep their hands in.” It is often a valuable function they serve. They, like all top Federal positions, including Member of Congress, will get a raise in 2009. They were on COLA - Cost of Living Adjustment - for a long time, even if those making minimum wages were not. Hmm?
