This has been a wonderful year of football because, for the first time in 1/4 century, I am freed from my addiction of betting on it and can actually
enjoy it. Nothing like baseball, but I can enjoy it.
Still, I DO check spreads at times, and while looking at the big college games this week, I was really surprised by what I saw. First, I saw that
USC, which has been pushed hard a few times and got real lucky--to be charitable--in beating Notre Dame, is a 19-point favorite over Cal.
Cal is a good team which was flat for Oregon last week, doubtless because they were looking ahead to this game. They have scared the hell out of USC
repeatedly in recent years and will be sky high for this game. I sure wouldn't want to lay 19 points to Cal in this game. Does that spread strike
anyone else as vastly excessive?
Meanwhile the #3 team in the country, Alabama, is a three-point HOME underdog
against LSU. I know their offense sucks, but it's sucked for a
long time and they've kept winning. Three points is a BIG spread in a defensive game like that, plus the home field is worth at LEAST three more, so
the spread says LSU is 6 or 7 points better than Bama, despite what 2 out of 3 major polls say.
I see no way LSU should be considered 6 or 7 points better than the country's third remaining major unbeaten football program.
Now, I lost lots of money my last couple of years betting on football, which is why I (finally) quit doing it. So obviously I'm no expert, and I do
intend this post as any free pointers on whom gamblers out there should take this Saturday.
But living in Northern California, I know quite a bit about Cal and their annual wars with USC, and I think 19 points is ludicrous, because Cal will
score serious points in that game. And whether LSU beats Alabama 13-3 or not, I don't think there's any way they should be laying three points at
Don't these spreads seem pretty silly to y'all? I mean, don't come stalking me if USC wins 77-3, but really, don't these look like two silly spreads?
Too bad I'm retired, because I'd bet serious bucks on these--thereby probably ensuring an enormous USC victory and Bama's first loss of the season.