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Survival Investing

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posted on Dec, 17 2006 @ 11:03 PM
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Anyone mention silver seriously?

There is a precious metals exchange here in my town that I can go into and say, "I'd like a 10 ounce bar of silver" and I pay cash...a book IS pulled out, but only for tax reasons. I could sign any name I wanted...

Silver has been steadily rising...sure, it's not nearly as valuable as gold--but it is also a good conductor and could be used in electronics.

I concur with the idea that you can't eat precious metals--but on the other hand, if you get out a week or two before all hell breaks loose--you just might be albe to liquidate your metals at a significant profit and buy some food, ammo and/or guns.




posted on Dec, 17 2006 @ 11:50 PM
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Well,

My plan for survival investing is similar to what some others have stated as far as stockpiles.

The model I work from is: what if the economy completely collapsed, how would I survive.

The first thing I've done is moved out to a remote rural location and paid off my debts.

So now I owe no one anything. I'm building a cabin but paying for it as I build so I have no mortgage. The water is from a well, so there is no water/sewage bill. Next is to use solar panels to power everything but I also am making sure the home can be comfortable without any power (secondary lanterns, wood stove, fireplace etc.) This way I can have all the power I normaly use from solar, but if those were to ever fail or fail during the winter, I could still heat and cook and see.

Next is getting the gardens up and running for food production, along with buying a cow, pigs and chickens for meat (my cousin runs a packing house). So there is no grocery bill and plenty of food.

At this point I have water, shelter, food, heat all taken care of without having to go to town to the grocery or bank.

Now keep in mind thats the model, I also am planning for traditional investments as well, just in case everything is OK. But if not, I'll be able to make it though without the need of any green...

My Dad told me once that during the depression the people in the cities were in soup lines but the folks in the country werent even phased by it. Thats what I'm striving for...



posted on Dec, 18 2006 @ 11:12 AM
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Man you people who want to move to the rural isolated lands are makign a big mistake. The mistake is, that is the plan of almost EVERY survivalist!! There are many books that show how this plan almost completely destroys the ecosystem to which they move to in the areas outside of cities. Remember land is not infinite, and only a SMALL percentage of the civilian popultion can live in nature in balance. The majority will in fact end up doing what they did in the cities. They will consume everything in sight, and move on with the attitude is there is always more somewhere else. Now lets say 15 million people out of our 300 million population end up doing that in such a catastrophic event. It will not be long before that can of behavior severely depletes a significant portion of our national resources.

I don't doubt anyone here can live in balance to your rural hideout. But the many groups of hundreds to thousands of irresponsible nomadic people not caring for their consequences, only wishin g to feed right then and now will not. And when they come up on your territory, you will not have much of a chance.

I will prefer to duke it out in the cities where at least the government will retain some semblance of control, and society can be brought back to functional after it has passed. It just takes people who WANT to actually help fix the problems to repair the damage. Not those who move out to the woods and come back when it all blows over.

But in any regards, dr SC I have greatly appreicated your experience you have shared with us, and will be starting this Harvard plan shortly after the holidays. I figure since I am 21, that gives me plenty of time to build wealth for my family and the next generation if I stick to it stringintly.



posted on Dec, 30 2006 @ 11:27 PM
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Great thread.
I've only recenlty really started down the path of building wealth. In the past eighteen months, I've bought my first home. I opened IRA account at one of the aforementioned discount brokers. I made a couple of bad calls (mostly not really paying attention to transaction fees). I'm in the process of paying down debt setting up what we like to call the "oh crap" fund. A company 401k that I get a 100% match up to 5% of my pay. I had the IRA first and if I lose my job I can transfer into the IRA without having to pay taxes on it. I've hit challenges on the way. Mostly medical bills from my childs premature birth, and the things you have to pay for at the house. One technique i've used to help on the revolving debt and the medical bills is "snowballing". On the medical bills i picked the smallest first and paid them off and paid the rest what i could afford (sometimes as little as $10 a month). There were alot of $50-$500 bills after insurance paid the 2 hospitals and god knows how many doctors. After i paid the smallest off i put that amount in to the next largest one. I have two bills left that are now getting payments that were easy to fit into my budgets with little or no interest. I was delayed in starting this method on the credit cards till after things setlled down with our child; but i picked the highest rate card and started doing the same thing, and the first card should hit the shredder in february or march.

Thank you doc for mentioning the Harvard plan. I'm gonna develop my own variation of it.

As far as actual survivor investing for situation X, it's relatively inexpensive to save up a small stash of survival foods. I figure a months worth of unaided food, water, hygene and emergency/medical supplies are sufficent up to a class 2 where i live (SE US well inland, most likely natural disaster is severe tornado). Once i get to the level that i'm comfortable on the abillity/length to self sustain through, some things that i could change my survival budget into and cheaply set aside as things to trade for or profit from in TEOTWAWKI for me wouldbe seeds, salt, bullets, and extras of the things in my personal kit.



posted on Mar, 6 2007 @ 05:49 PM
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Originally posted by snafu7700
there is one currency that has never lost value in modern history: gold. it is the one form of currency that is pretty much guaranteed to still be worth something....unless of course we are reduced to a purely bartering economy, but if that is going to be the case, you should be able to see it coming, and be able to buy as many goods as possible with the gold you are holding in the first couple of days before it gets really bad.


Until 1200 AD gold was worthless in Europe. You wouldn't have been able to have bought a chamber pot with it. Why? Because Silver was the "gold standard" of the time. Venice had a brilliant idea, with their Navy they knew of the Golden Horde before it ever came to Europe, with their agents they were able to trade information for cooperation from the Khans. The Venetians through that method controlled almost all the Gold markets of the world.

They began in about 1150AD the transfer of Europe from a silver standard to a gold standard in order to make themselves wealthy.

It worked, for hundreds of years Venice was the financial ruler of Europe.

It would not be until national governments replaced power over city-states that Venice became incapable of holding on to its financial stranglehold.

Gold therefore has not always been worth anything.

Sparta of Greece used iron as currency.

The Vikings used a myriad of metals.



posted on Mar, 6 2007 @ 05:52 PM
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Here's the real plan for survival...

Buy a certain select amount of diversity so in the wake of economic crash you can use what assets you didn't lose to buy up the bargain prices left in such a disaster. When everything is worth toilet paper - usually people with only jobs lose all their wealth, but if you had something (say gold/silver) or whatever would retain its worth, then you could sell it in the midst of disaster or use it as a lien to buy up everything else - so when the economy recovers you then have a LOT more money.



posted on Mar, 6 2007 @ 08:48 PM
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do see how moving to a rural area could be unsafe, because there won't be much/any police protection. But people are going to have to travel out there to get to you and your stuff. They may also have trouble finding you or your stuff. If they can't live off of your land, they will be forced to move on. I imagine if you have at least 10-15 acres, that you can hide stuff so well, including yourself, that would just frustrate those trying to take advantage of you, they can't search forever, they have to move on looking for something else to leech from.

Also, I did not know guns were a good investment, how does this work?

I really enjoy reading this thread, good work!

PS. For you economics guys, I have been wanting to get a discussion going about this idea, or attitude of "abundancy theory" and what that means/implies to true economics type stuff (scarcity)... Where should I post this you think?



posted on Mar, 6 2007 @ 09:34 PM
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Originally posted by MystikMushroom
Anyone mention silver seriously?

There is a precious metals exchange here in my town that I can go into and say, "I'd like a 10 ounce bar of silver" and I pay cash...a book IS pulled out, but only for tax reasons. I could sign any name I wanted...

Silver has been steadily rising...sure, it's not nearly as valuable as gold--but it is also a good conductor and could be used in electronics.

I concur with the idea that you can't eat precious metals--but on the other hand, if you get out a week or two before all hell breaks loose--you just might be albe to liquidate your metals at a significant profit and buy some food, ammo and/or guns.


Depends on who you look at but one of the most respectable establishments the London Bullion Market Association has put Silver on average as going down a dollar per ounce. To me they seem to have been consistently below the mark the last few years so I would imagine that at the beginning of next year Silver might be a dollar or two its current price.

Since its current price is about $13 I'd say it's doubling at that rate every...4-5 years which is about 12-15% growth...which isn't bad but isn't very good either unless that were say a 10 year average.

Metals doubtfully pull off that much of an average.

If even low marks are estimating a drop in price I bet silver's met its match in industry - it's probably lost most growth for now...

[edit on 6-3-2007 by FreiMaurer]

PS:

I want to add that since metals don't grow off principal then the growth rates I provided are in fact wrong, it's about that for the first doubling but the growth rate will actually decrease.

I like to put my investments into things whose growth rates increase over time...stocks.

[edit on 6-3-2007 by FreiMaurer]



posted on Mar, 7 2007 @ 02:43 AM
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Originally posted by DYepes
Well strangecraft there is talk on these forums now about the Chinese getting ready to dump one trillion US dollars. I have about 1500$ in cash savings...

Should I take 30-60% of that now and convert it into bullion to be on the safe side for the next few months? IF I start hearing about it on more reputable websites, I think I will have to do that. Maybe turn the remainder of it into small short term I series bonds?

Assuming the Chinese do go through with thier dumping plan in the next couple of months, would this be a proper route to take?


You'll lose money if you put it into gold now. Gold is nearing its peak price for the next year unless something surprising happens. I've yet to see a good analysis that predicts it'll push $700 USD.



posted on Mar, 7 2007 @ 10:11 AM
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Originally posted by Frimurar
You'll lose money if you put it into gold now. Gold is nearing its peak price for the next year unless something surprising happens. I've yet to see a good analysis that predicts it'll push $700 USD.


I strongly, strongly, strongly disagree. I think once this correction levels off, it will be a perfect time to buy gold, at least in the long term. Oil and Gold are usually tied together, but oil is way overpriced now. A bar of gold used to buy at TON of barrels of oil, but that number has dropped significantly. Either oil is dropping back to $40/barrel, or gold is going up to $1,000 an ounce very shortly, and I'd put my money on gold. I think that over the next 10 years, gold will have a very steady increase in value.

I'm planning on putting about 10% of my money into gold bullion when I'm older and can actually afford to invest a lot more. Right now I can only buy about two to four stocks at any given time.

The only problem with gold is selling it. And also gold doesn't pay dividends, it just sits there.

[edit on 7-3-2007 by Yarcofin]



posted on Mar, 7 2007 @ 11:26 AM
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In any bad situation, food, water and shelter are the most important.

Whether it is a war, a natural diseaster, economic crash, nuclear fall out, etc. etc.

What is gold, sliver, paper money, bonds etc. compared with the most basic needs for survival? You certainly cannot consume them to live.

The person who has all clean food, water and shelter have the means to survive. That is why these items are always sent first to those who have lost everything, not gold, sliver or money. Clothes and money come later.

This will be most apparent in a global crisis.

A serious global climate change would indeed make these basic necessities be in great demand. You cannot have what others refuse to trade.Wars may even be fought over them. Especially over clean water I think....



posted on Mar, 9 2007 @ 05:37 PM
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Originally posted by Yarcofin

Originally posted by Frimurar
You'll lose money if you put it into gold now. Gold is nearing its peak price for the next year unless something surprising happens. I've yet to see a good analysis that predicts it'll push $700 USD.


I strongly, strongly, strongly disagree. I think once this correction levels off, it will be a perfect time to buy gold, at least in the long term. Oil and Gold are usually tied together, but oil is way overpriced now. A bar of gold used to buy at TON of barrels of oil, but that number has dropped significantly. Either oil is dropping back to $40/barrel, or gold is going up to $1,000 an ounce very shortly, and I'd put my money on gold. I think that over the next 10 years, gold will have a very steady increase in value.

I'm planning on putting about 10% of my money into gold bullion when I'm older and can actually afford to invest a lot more. Right now I can only buy about two to four stocks at any given time.

The only problem with gold is selling it. And also gold doesn't pay dividends, it just sits there.

[edit on 7-3-2007 by Yarcofin]


So why is Gold going to go up to over $1,000 USD per ounce when all the market makers say that Gold is actually going to lose a few $USD per ounce over the next year?

Where is your substantiation? They all make good arguments and are experts in the field of pricing precious metals but you? What is it you do again?

I'm not meaning to sound pompous but for me it seems a level of experience is important you yourself say you only purchase three or four stocks a time. That's like setting aside some money in a piggy-bank unless you're talking about Berkshire's class-A stock.

I'm not a big fish in this sea but when you're dealing with moving thousands of shares of your own money as I do - in large caps, I can say I tend to pay attention a lot better right now than I did when I started where you are.

And I can't seem to find any substantiated claims of any real price growth of Gold at this time. If you want a general indicator of where the market is going just observe the price of precious metal mining stocks. The confidence isn't high enough in the companies to even warrant a higher price in the commodity.



posted on Jun, 4 2008 @ 06:43 PM
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amazing post and very insightful.

dr SC, out of interest, why $20 notes? interested to hear your reasoning.

thank you for sharing this.



posted on Jun, 12 2008 @ 10:07 AM
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Originally posted by Anonymous ATS

dr SC, out of interest, why $20 notes? interested to hear your reasoning.



Sorry I didn't respond sooner, I had lost track of this thread.

I like twenties because they are universally accepted here. Cashing a 50 or 100 on a rainy night in a small town is an issue, even in good times. But twenties are small enough that anyone will take them.

Then theres the issue of change. If you haggle for something, you'd better have the exact price, or the buyer/seller will say "sorry, I don't have change." I do that all the time.
Smaller bills don't let you get ripped off as much as say, being forced to buy water with a $100 that the seller cannot make change for.

Third, there's the question of aging. Survival stuff tends to sit for years without being inspected or updated. Given Treasury's penchant for reinventing our currency every couple of years, I'd use the single most common denomination, which is more likely to be accepted after the change. That means the twenty. Even now, if you see an old twenty from the early nineties, you take it without quibbling. Try passing an old $100 at a bank, and watch them inspect it for counterfiture. Writing on it with a yellow marker and whatnot.

That's why.

.



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