On Friday, December 8th, the House of Representatives passed H.R. 6406, by a
vote of 212-184
This bill allows for "normalization" of trade with
This new "permanent normalization of trade relations" (PNTR) with Vietnam is the first step in opening up their labor market to exploitation by
Corporate America and to the outsourcing of American jobs to Vietnam.
What are the relative "benefits" to the United States? It allegedly opens up the Vietnamese "consumer" market to American goods. However, the
benefit of such market opening is minuscule. The exchange traded value of Vietnam's entire GDP is only $43 billion. (See
Vietnam: CIA assessment
) This is approximately 3/100ths of a percent of U.S.
GDP. To put it another way, if Vietnam's entire
GDP was spent on American imports, it would raise U.S. GDP .03%. So a U.S. GDP growth of 2.20%
would rise to 2.23%. Again, this is assuming ALL of Vietnam's GDP was spent on American goods, which is certainly not going to happen. Vietnam's
Exchange Rate per capita GDP is only $521/year. [Vietnam's Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) per capita GDP is listed as $2800. By converting this to an
exchange rate value this becomes a per capita income of only $521/year. It's the Exchange Rate income that is important here, because this measures
the ability to purchase American imports.] Given these numbers it's very unlikely that we can sell significant U.S production to Vietnamese
What's the downside? Vietnam has a labor force of 43 million workers. Once Vietnam is opened up to investment by Corporate America, this could become
a virtual addition of 43 million workers to America's 152 million participating labor force. If Corporate America replaced 43 million American
workers ( averaging $17/hour
) with 43
million Vietnamese workers, it would reduce American labor & consumer income by $1.52 trillion.
(43 million X $17/hr. X 8 hrs./day X 365 days/yr. X 5 days/wk divided by 7 days/week = $1.52 trillion. )
This would also reduce American consumer spending power by $1.52 trillion dollars. A decline in consumer spending by that $1.52 trillion, subtracted
directly from our $13 trillion GDP, would amount to a direct decline in our GDP of almost 12%. (Applying any multiplier would drop our GDP far more
than 12%) Of course, we could "gain" that whopping 0.03% in GDP from selling our exports to Vietnam.
These are theoretical calculations only, designed to show the magnitude of relative benefits vs. costs to Americans from "normalization" of trade
with Vietnam. While Corporate America is not likely to hire all 43 million Vietnamese workers, it's clear that the potential loss to our economy is
much greater than the potential gain. We'll gain an almost non-existent consumer market from Vietnam, while adding a virtual 43 million workers to
America's labor pool. And the direct loss of jobs is only the measurable effect. The decline in American wages from the supply & demand effect of
competition with another 43 million impoverished workers hasn't been calculated. Clearly this would decrease American wages and labor income MUCH
more than just $1.52 trillion.
To the majority of Americans, permanent normalization of trade with Vietnam is exclusively negative. Once again, it'll put American workers (and
their wages) in direct competition with impoverished 3rd world workers.
The true goal is to replace even more American workers with easily exploitable semi-slave laborers of another impoverished country. It'll be another
disaster for American workers, and another windfall profit gain for rich Globalist Corporations.
Economic Populist Forum