So I'm saying this to start some debate, but this whole thing sort of blew over. Its really not a nessassary forum, it could be replaced or changed to general talk about disese and medicine.

If I moved back into my mother's home, I would wait longer than 4 months before letting her know that she should begin the demolition of her rose room, and build a garden room.

There are posts that come up on here, and there is a Medical Issues forum on BTS (Health and Wellness), and also Medical Issues and Conspiracies on ATS. Wouldn't it be a little cluttered with 3 medical forums?

gee I was hoping for pics of some beat up skate board or snow board or something and daring exploits captured for all humanity to see and shown on YouTube but alas all I got for my troubles was this thread.

i dont understend whi they create this board in first place! it fits perfectly in the medical one, i dont see the need to have one exclusive for this subject!

When the avian flu was breaking out, there was a serious potential for it to become a major pandemic with entire countries being destablized because of it. As it stands, that can still happen, its just not being as hyped in the media.

Absolutely nothing has changed from the day that the h5n1 forum was created. Heck, we've even found that tamiflu was less effective than we thought, and had worse side-effects.

Last year bird flu was a hot topic - authorities feared a pandemic was imminent.

Bird flu now is endemic in birds in many parts of Asia, and moving into Africa - but the human pandemic has not arrived.

Most infectious disease experts and epidemiologists expect it to hit any time now - but pandemics are hard to predict, so they don't make predictions.

Also, a lot of evidence suggests that human cases may be far more widespread than recognized - or acknowledged.

So hang on. We just might see some action this winter when flu season really hits. If that makes you feel better.




[edit on 28-11-2006 by soficrow]

yeah all that happening is birds are getting sick, it hasn't transfered to humans and that takes a pretty good mutution. This isn't like that stupid movie Outbreak where it takes fifteen minutes to get airborne and infect people.

Originally posted by squidbones
yeah all that happening is birds are getting sick, it hasn't transfered to humans

Yes, it has. It has infected humans from birds, AND it has mutated in such a way that a person can infect another perosn with it. LUCKILY, the health services of those areas where this did happen were able to clamp down on it and the potential epidemic burned itself out.

Originally posted by squidbones
yeah all that happening is birds are getting sick, it hasn't transfered to humans and that takes a pretty good mutution. This isn't like that stupid movie Outbreak where it takes fifteen minutes to get airborne and infect people.

And this is exactly why this board should stay up. So that people like yourself can become more edumucated about these potential life threatening subjects.
H5N1 has not gone away in fact it is becoming more prevalant in humans. We are only one or two more genes from it being a pandemic. Will it hit this year or next no one knows thereby it's not news.
Sheeple are more interested in Anna Nicole's electricity being turned off in the Bahama's.

We are not 'one or two genes' away from it being a pandemic. It doesn't function like that, we can't measure it like that. Its simply a virus that mutates on its own. It can develop the ability to be transmitted from human to human along any number of paths.

Either way, it already has developed that ability, in more than one location. It was stamped out, but its simply a matter of time before it does it again. Eventually, instead of occuring in a population of rural farmers, its going to happen in a major metropolitan city with busy airports.

Originally posted by Nygdan
We are not 'one or two genes' away from it being a pandemic. It doesn't function like that, we can't measure it like that. Its simply a virus that mutates on its own. It can develop the ability to be transmitted from human to human along any number of paths.

I am very well aware of how it works. My "gene" description was merely a way of dumbing it down without going into details of the evolution of viruses.
It was nearly 2 yrs ago that Gman and myself started these threads of H5N1 at that time we posted as much info that was available but because it had yet to become mainstream news at the time nobody on these boards were really interested in the subject.
Then when it hit mainstream this board lit up light a christmas tree with interest and paranoia.
This subject is far from dead but again mainstream doesn't deem it worthy at this point and many others tend to forget hence the original poster.

Originally posted by soficrow
If that makes you feel better.

No, not really.

Originally posted by squidbones
yeah all that happening is birds are getting sick, it hasn't transfered to humans and that takes a pretty good mutution. This isn't like that stupid movie Outbreak where it takes fifteen minutes to get airborne and infect people.

I get the feeling you thought it was funny..




Umm, yeah, well, I'm not really 'edumucated' on the Bird Flu subject, but, I think it's a manufactured disease. Ok, that's all from me. I know my analysis was state of the art and has never been said before or sense due to it's respectable magnitude and potential copyright legal issues, but, no autographs please. I'll be leaving. Toodles.

It is so strange that at one time the news was talking of nothing else but the avian flu and an expected pandemic. Now you hear nothing at all about the flu bug; then again saying that I had my flu jab yesterday and it was a much stronger vaccine compared to in the past. I actually got a touch of the flu from the vaccine, obviously to boost my immune system.

My husband noted that the serum was much thicker compared to our past jabs. Also, unlike jabs in the past in my upper arm; I usually don't even feel the needle going in. This jab, it was really painful.

I wonder if the new vaccine is related in part to the avian flu strain. You don't hear anything more about it on the news, so what strain of vaccine are we being given?

One of the resons I don't post here too often anymore is because of the ignorance displayed by some and the thread baiting. Don't get me wrong, there are a lot of informed ATS posters that have read the hard data in our posts and have researched for themselves....these are the ones I do read and sometimes reply to.

As for the others...don't waste your time. If they really are interested, they will learn.

BTW, have you taken note that H5N1 has aquired more polymorphrisms?
Seems like the different clades have been fixed now and are going to race against each other for the crown (world domination!...lol). Personally, I'm betting the Qinghai strain will be the winner...

Later D-Day
Gman

I don't think there's any evidence that H5N1 is more likely to spawn a new pandemic than any other type of pathogen. In fact since it's been known as long as it has without creating one, there may be evidence that it will not.

I'm not saying that it never will, but I don't see much of a need for this forum separate from the others either.

But then again, since it's already here, what really is the use of removing it?

(edited for grammar)

[edit on 2/3/2007 by djohnsto77]

Originally posted by djohnsto77
I don't think there's any evidence that H5N1 is more likely to spawn a new pandemic than other type of a pathogen.

True...to an extent.

All past pandemics have usually "appeared" seemingly overnight.

We did not know as much about them either, so there was very little if any interest in studying them (influenza).

As far as the odds go, we are overdue for a pandemic. I just hope that some "other" pathogen gains the ability to go H2H...God save us if H5N1 gains that ability and retains it's case fatality rate of over 60%....compare that to the 1918 pandemic that killed 40-80 million and it only had a 3-5% CFR...

Hope it goes away....but it's better to be prepared, and forwarned...thus the need for this forum.

Hey G-Man long time it's been.
I see these posts crop up every so often and wonder where you've gone to. But I understand and feel the same way.
Sofi has been keeping everyone in the loop and I see those threads also fall to the wayside.
It's pretty disappointing actually.

To answer the question in a word yes. Have you also read that the CDC I believe are going to start classifying the known flu strains much like they catagorize hurricanes? Well it won't be F1, F2 etc...but rather Stage 1 - 5
Funny how that's how they classify pandemics.

I personally believe we have also staged up. Jakarta has human to human transmission and has declared a state of emergency. Family clusters of course but begs the question how of easily it's transmitted now. Further is that the virus has sequenced itself (can't remember which sequence) so that it's now affecting the upper respiratory tract.
This is what makes it so dangerous.

Not really hearing that in mainstream media either.

Good to hear from ya tho. Don't be a stranger. I need backup here!

Originally posted by DDay
Hey G-Man long time it's been...snip

Jakarta has human to human transmission and has declared a state of emergency. Family clusters of course but begs the question how of easily it's transmitted now...snip

I need backup here!

Hey D-Day, some things that were suggested about the "family clusters" is a genetic pre-disposition for transmission...which sort of makes sense since others close to the cluster did not become infected, only the blood relatives...

Of course they are really in the dark anyway, they still can't rule out other vectors yet...

Well it's really cold here today, (-10) with wind chills arounds 30 below and I have to get to the store...so I'm outta here.

Btw If need be, you can always email me for support, but you are holding up well from what I can see.