Are you ready? Get prepared if you live in a line from Arkansas up to Michigan... Also get ready east of there in ohio just in case.
The more I look at things, the more I am concerned that for a 6-8 hour period Friday, we are going to have near blizzard if not blizzard criteria
conditions from Missouri through Illinois into Michigan.
1. You have a trough going that will become highly negative as it travels from Arkansas to Michigan. The negative tilt of the trough will cause
intense upward motion and rapid deepening of the storm from Arkansas to Michigan.
2. During the deepening phase, very cold air is going to be pulled into the storm. Temperatures will fall into the 20s and teens turning the rain over
to a heavy wet then powdery type of a snow. Convection wrapping into the storm will create snow rates 2-3 inches per hour and the winds will be
gusting 40-50 mph on the back side of the storm as the isobars become aligned with the upper level wind field.
3. Roads will go over to an instant glaze in many areas and some places will have the worst driving conditions seen in a long time.
4. The area I am most concerned for blizzard conditions and just awful weather given what I see tonight...
kansas city to Davenport to near Milwaukee to Saginaw to west of Detroit to north of Indianapolis to near St Louis and back to Kansas City. I think
that area has the best chance of seeing the worst of the storm.
I will say, I am still concerned for a slightly eastward shift in the track of the storm. If that happens, then I will have to move the area east as
well. In any case, folks living in the Midwest should be preparing for a really nasty Friday.
My last concern for the night. It's been bothering me as to why the models have not been showing the third wave. I am not sure if they just overwhelm
the whole east with cold air and just lose it or what, but typically, whch that much trough hanging back, a third wave of low pressure should run
along the front from the Alabama to Virginia on Sunday into Monday. If that happens, and keep your fingers cross you snow lovers, that's how we get
the snow in the East. You have to remember, a few day ago, this was going to be a strong front crossing the country with rain changing to snow all the
way to the coast. Now we have a storm coming along the front and one that will be nasty, so why should we believe the models tonight and think that
the front just goes sloshing across the Southeast without a third wave of love pressure to push things along. Makes one think doesn't it..
[edit on 11/28/2006 by l0rds0fcha0s]