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2000: Biological Terrorism Targeted at Agriculture (pdf)
The modern agricultural farm ...is a huge operation with often several hundred thousand animals in one location. ...This concentration of animals, combined with the communicability of livestock diseases, suggests that a handful of attacks could cause widespread devastation to an ...economy. ...Another factor that facilitates the spread of an animal disease is that animals and animal products are often moved to many locations in a short period of time.
The Ability of Attacks to Cause Economic Harm
Agricultural pandemics can lead to economic losses of immense proportions. ...The 1997 FMDv outbreak in Taiwan decimated the country's pork industry, causing $7 billion in dmage. The well-publicized outbreak of mad-cow disease in Great Britain cost the country $4.2 billion in depopulation costs alone.
One of the most devastating effects of even a small-scale outbreak is trade embargoes...
Analysts suggest APEC is becoming less important
This year's APEC leaders meeting - with representatives from 21 member economies, along with businesspeople, government officials and reporters - has thrust quiet Hanoi, the capital of Vietnam, into the world spotlight. ...But irrespective of the number and rank of people who turned up, the fact is that the importance of APEC is diminishing. ...According to a survey of 370 regional opinion leaders released this week by the Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC), an advisory group to APEC, concern about the viability of APEC is widespread. ...Only 42 percent of respondents agreed with the statement "APEC is as important today as it was in 1989," while a majority of respondents identified "weak commitment from member economies" and "lack of focus" as key challenges facing the regional forum. ...The increase in the number of issues discussed at APEC meetings - everything from from bird flu to the North Korean nuclear crisis - have distracted meetings from the main focus of APEC, which originally was trade liberalization and facilitation, Wu said.
The rise of several other regional organizations in Asia may eclipse APEC, especially ASEAN, with China in tow, or Japan's new East Asia Summit, Wu said. ...In theory, integrated trade partners are more likely to be political allies, and both ASEAN and the East Asia Summit, which exclude Taiwan, are the focus of a push to establish a regional common market, Wu said. ...The US will not sit on its hands while this happens. The US pushed its own regional agenda during this year's APEC meeting - a new APEC-wide free trade zone or Free-Trade Area of the Asia Pacific (FTAAP).
Despite the fact that the US said it was promoting the idea to resolve the current WTO impasse, there has been speculation that China was behind the recent move to reintroduce the plan. ...One major initiative the nation has contributed to APEC is the APEC Digital Opportunity Center (ADOC). Established in 2003, ADOC aims to help eliminate the digital divide among member economies by setting up IT centers in Vietnam, Chile, Peru, the Philippines, Indonesia and Papua New Guinea.
Originally posted by khunmoon
It ceartainly is a possibility.
Your scenario is very likely Sofi, the degree to how dirty tricks can get, we have no idea. Dig on, I would like to see some evidence to support the likeliness.
Can h5n1 be a good agri weapon its true but its also a mutual destruction bug, it will infect all things in the world before it becomes tamed by our immune systems and the animals around the world. I agree it is epidemic around the world in certain areas, you also state the pandemic started in china and remains in the aisa area, I disagree with that because it is walking all over the world and turkey had a lot of deaths only after the movement of of birds through europe with the prediction by Niman holding true.
You stated after careful study you observed a lot of red dots over central asia pinpointings outbreaks of H5. In china and many areas they grow fowl many ways, some pretty modern and others just like grand maw did but with many doing so in the kitchen or just outside the door. Vietnam was moving chickens across the border by any means possible to sell them before the government destroyed the bird or birds. This happens in the poor countries due to the lose of the persons sole means if income if not a great portion of it. Even though the countries have a ban of bird movements and sells without teting. People in africa were digging up dead fowl and eating it or finding great nbr of fowl or other animals dead in the woods andd consuming it, because of the great hunger they experience.
I think your posting good ideas but some are not correct, however chew on this.
six months before the outbread at quanhi the chinese was engaged in battles with chinese muslims in the mountains and deserts of Gobi, also in Gobi there was a Germ warfare station and it was used to test and develop military grade weapons from bacteria and viruses just like other countries. We find there was eight chinese blogers posting about a attack in areas of this station and after we have the H5N1
moving from fowl to humans and other animals, remember we had the swine deaths and people dieing from just touching the pigs with the so called disease.
I agree it can be a terrorist weapon, I agree that terrorists probably have thought
just like you about how to use it. China is a emerging great nation but still a very heavy polluter whether in industry or in agriculture. If 50% of farmers do things the olde fashion way such as keeping chickens or ducks in the house and feeding chicken poop to carp placed in rice patties to eat weeds then you probably have 100 million doing it the bad way even without counting open markets in modern cities or train movements of chickens many possibilities.
Originally posted by mondegreen
Soficrow you seem a person that has a lot of points but little real information.
If your just reading and posting what you find then I can understand your real lack of real information. You stated H5N1 emerged from china but it first emerged in Scotland in 1959 in a mallard duck?
Your statement that Scientists recognize that H5N1 is spread via contaminated feed is a false assumption
even if true you make one feel it is the only thing that is causing the disease to infect poultry.
You stated after careful study you observed a lot of red dots over central asia pinpointings outbreaks of H5.
six months before the outbread at quanhi the chinese was engaged in battles with chinese muslims in the mountains and deserts of Gobi, also in Gobi there was a Germ warfare station and it was used to test and develop military grade weapons from bacteria and viruses just like other countries. We find there was eight chinese blogers posting about a attack in areas of this station and after we have the H5N1 moving from fowl to humans and other animals, remember we had the swine deaths and people dieing from just touching the pigs with the so called disease.
The sudden appearance of a new pathogen or the emergence of a terrorist group with completely novel characteristics are two examples of outlier (unpredicted and atypical) events that can have devastating consequences. One general strategy for dealing with such events is to develop flexible response plans that can adapt to a wide spectrum of threats, even those that are quite different from what we might expect.
Predicting human behaviour
The obstacles to threat anticipation mentioned above apply to all events, whether intentional or 'naturally' occurring. There are, however, several aspects of intentional acts by human beings that make prediction especially difficult and that come into play in any consideration of bioterrorism. First, human threats are even more dynamic than evolutionary factors, in that human beings can adapt their behaviour instantaneously, can strategise to avoid defences and can concentrate their efforts on vulnerabilities.
Second, human beings display an exquisite diversity of action rarely observed in the natural world, with innovation a common occurrence amongst human adversaries. Lastly, while many natural processes are quite well understood and at least relatively well defined, the study of human mental processes is in many ways still very primitive, with few well-defined features and hardly any predictive tools with general application. The extreme case of extremist behaviour General difficulties in predicting human behaviour are exacerbated in the case of extremists such as terrorists, who are particularly wily and adaptive and often have obscure motivations for action. The most obvious (and serious) complication stems from the fact that terrorists and many other dangerous actors, by their very nature, operate clandestinely, thus making proactive identification and data collection especially difficult for the threat assessor.
Untangling the threads
It may appear that, with apparent trends that may or may not be indicative of future threats and the possibility of unforeseen factors that we do not or even cannot discern, we are left on even less solid ground than we were at the beginning of this paper. In fact, following Confucius' dictum that 'real knowledge is to know the extent of one?s ignorance', we are now far better equipped to understand the uncertainties of the future and incorporate them into our decision making. In this vein, the following recommendations are offered as high-level approaches for dealing with future biological threats, including those with animal origins.
Do not ignore current trends, but approach them judiciously
Despite the caveats about relying on extrapolations of past and current events, these can at least provide a baseline from which to explore future threats. Many of the trends pertaining to biological disasters carry with them significant probabilities of continuing and are thus important, so long as we do not allow our thinking to be constrained by existing patterns. Paying attention to current trends, while remaining sensitive to outlying possibilities and non-linear dynamics, is thus a prudent strategy.
Originally posted by khunmoon
So let me ask you Sofi, on what do you build your assumption?
...I think we should look at the pattern it was reported by and at the context those reports appear in. As I've already given hints for Thailand, where it was done in an irregular an panic way, first by denial, then probably by deliberate misinformations. Now they hardly report anymore in local media.