So here we go, a good 'ol brawl...

what was it the germans believed?

'' the americans Wont attack during rain, and at dawn, and at the widest part of the ocean thats suicidal ''

Now, If Iran got togehter say, 1000 missle launching trucks,
hid them in houses, garages an so forht all over Iran.
had them prep'd..

then one day, at 2am.. gave the order for hezbollah to stage an all out attacko n Israel...

...

In war do the unexpected.

The fundamental flaw in this theory is that what you are proposing are "classical military manoeuvres" based on set piece action. The element of surprise counts only when you can capitalize on it. Do you think that the Iranians are naive enough to launch an attack to destroy a single American Carrier Battle Group and later risk combined NATO and US military strikes? btw at 2am in the Persian Gulf, the US intel community will be enjoying lunch and their assets would be at max funtionality, don't you think they'll see it coming?


Firstly, the Americans won't even have to send in ground troops from the get go, they would initially destroy critical infrastructure (like in Serbia) through cruise missile strikes from air launched and sea launched platforms e.g B 2s, B52 and SSGNs. Hell, if required, they might sling an ICBM or three tipped with conventional warheads (though that's unlikely). Secondly, Iranians don't have a retaliation capacity so in a war of attrition, guess who'll come on top...


Plus it would would be a two front war, Iraq on one side and Afghanistan on the other (not to forget Diego Garcia's strategic bomber base and numerous other bases in the Middle East). Yes, yes there are problems in Iraq and Afghanistan but the bottom line is that the Americans and NATO countries do have bases in both regions and that has tremendous deterrence value.


About the Hezbollah... what you are proposing is hezbollah playing by the Israeli rules by launching an offensive. The Hezbollah are at best a guerilla force and are most suited to defensive warfare. When the Iranian missiles start to rain, those home made katyushas won't be too much of an headache for a country going for all out war, not to mention morale/patriotism/fanaticism which have been "the" deciding factors during previous wars.


Plus for your "Americans won't attack..." quote I have another quote, "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics". Do you know how tough it is to move a thousand missiles? As I said before, it requires massive movement of fuel, soldiers, equipment to construct launch sites (the houses, garages etc. you mentioned) and communication infrastructure. Ultimately, human and electronic intel gathering assets will collect atleast enough info to warn US forces about a possible attack.


And please dont think that the Russians and the Chinese will do any serious intervention barring noise clear their throats. The Russians backed off from intervening in Serbia, which was right in their area of influence and the Chinese have enough intergration with the American economy that whats good for America, is good for them. And last but not the least, Iran will be inviting Chapter 7 action of the UN Charter which would allow military and economic sanctions against an aggressor such as Iran, who by that time would have become an international pariah anyways.

Elven Sniper, you rock!!

Thank you for bringing a sensible post to counter all the hate filled "I hope some Americans die to Iranians" ones.

Hey thanks for the vote of confidence (and the other one too!) Pokey Oats, atleast now I have two friends in the wild west I won't be tangling with cute Skadi (its a spookyyyy name nontheless), though I won't rule out mortal kombat with that scary kitty of hers.



[edit on 14-11

[edit on 14-11-2006 by Elven Sniper]

Originally posted by TrueAmerican
Because surely by now either Allah, China or Russia has seen to it that Iran has all those fancy toys too.

I think the US is picking a fight. All we would need is for Iran to attack us and then it would be GAME ON. The US military would then get carte blanche to stick its foot in Iran's arse. People would join the military in record numbers to bring the pain to Iran.

No matter how you chop it, slice it, or dice it, Iran might put up a good fight, but the US would make the place a smoldering hole. We are a nation of cowboys. So many forget that. People make a big deal about how the US is bogged down in Iraq. They don't realize that more people are murdered in the US in one year than have been killed in Iraq in 3 years. Strange how statistically, it is safer to be in Iraq than at home. At least in Iraq, they get to carry machine guns and body armor.

Bogged down? Not even close. They are trying to act as police, not warriors. If the generals got their heads out of their posteriors and switched to warrior mode, Iraq would quickly get pretty quiet. Let them take the gloves off and you would see a big change.

People get upset at Abu Graib because the prisoners were humiliated. Not beheaded or killed, but humiliated and everyone got their panties in a bunch. How can soldiers do their job when everyone is so sensitive? A soldier's job is to kill, not play nice to prisoners who were trying to kill them not that long before.

Public opinion is manipulated. If it was manipulated in the other direction by having a carrier group on fire and Iran is claiming victory, public opinion would want blood. They would see how ugly the "ugly American" can be.

If US wanted Iran "wiped off the map", I am using Iran's words here, it would happen so fast, it would make the mulluhs' heads spin. I am sure that Russia and China would be given a head's up before it started, though. This way the three could divide up whatever was left between them.

Iran would see how bogged down the US wasn't.

I think the "bogged" down argument in Iraq applys more to the Safety of alot of 150-200k Coalition Military in Iraq that are within easy strike of the Iranians.

Once the bulk of the Coalition are out of harms way, Iran will be a cake walk. ( by that i dont mean occupation as thatll probly be another Iraq)

Dude slow down a bit and just read what im saying.

why are we setting up launch sites?
why are we needing fuel..

why cant there be a 1000 missle launching TRUCKS hidden throughout iran, all over the place in the ultaimte ready stage... all they need is to start the hyrdolics, make the tower point up.. then laucnh..


common military tactics granted...

but your saying, no one will use common military tactics any more. so dont even bother.

wouldnt that be the ultimate thing then?

no ones expecting it.. no one believes it is possible.. so lets do it.

No one believed Israel could get air superiority in the 6 day war, it was though to be impossible to remove so much egyption, jordanian and syrian air power in a brief moment...

but they did it....

look im not going to argue,

when people offer an opinion, its never wrong..

your right and im right, we mightny agree granted..

but i think, if iran told hezbollah to laucnh 50 suicide attacks consecutivley on american interests and general israeli interests in israel, while iraqi insurgents staged 50 suicide hits on american forces, and various fishing vessels laden with bombs started steaming toward the fleet in the gulf..

this would give iran time enough to give the order to their 1000 missle launchers, to speed at TOP speed to designated area's, flick the switch, raise the tower and launch in a matter of minutes....
sending a thousands anti-ship missles steaming toward the fleet..

I tell ya it just might work.

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
this would give iran time enough to give the order to their 1000 missle launchers, to speed at TOP speed to designated area's, flick the switch, raise the tower and launch in a matter of minutes....
sending a thousands anti-ship missles steaming toward the fleet..

I tell ya it just might work.

LOL, are you living in reality at all or just playing out some bizarre fantasy. Where will these 1000 missiles come from and what type would they be.
how about the USAF flanking Iran in Iraq and Pakistan ot to mention other gulf states.
Then of course there ar ethe heavy bombers in Diego Garcia who could rain a hitstorm of long range precision wepaons on Iran.

The scenario you put forward is just stupid, no offence.

If it was a surprise...

what up with people and theoretical scenario's

do they not understand the thought of Theory?

IF all hell was breaking lose in IRaq, Israel, and on the Iraqi fleet, you think they are going to have there aircraft strafing garages and storing pens in Iran?

what im suggesting, is iran seem to hae been investing majorly in anti ship missles as of late.

if they created major distractions all over the region... had the US looking at the Iraqi insurgents attacking the green zone, wil hezbollah was obliterating israeli targets, and hunderds of suspicous ships were screaming toward the fleet in the gulf...

it gives iran a window of opportunity to give the go order.. have these missles speed from there storing pens throughout citieis to within range then launch.

the USA would not be able to stop them before they launched, being they arent expecting it and are looking at the chaos that has just erupted all around them.

of course the US could wipe them out if they KNEW IT WAS COMING.

but in this theoretical situation.. they dont.

the USA are not the all mighty invincible army you all beleive them to be.

[edit on 15-11-2006 by Agit8dChop]

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
do they not understand the thought of Theory?

Well it's completely stupid.

what im suggesting, is iran seem to hae been investing majorly in anti ship missles as of late.

Gaining posession of a few Sunburns hardly consiute this thousand missil armada you talk about.

if they created major distractions all over the region... had the US looking at the Iraqi insurgents attacking the green zone, wil hezbollah was obliterating israeli targets, and hunderds of suspicous ships were screaming toward the fleet in the gulf...

LOL, Hezbollah ould be qiped out if they tried some ridiculous major offensive, espacilly inside Israel - RIDICULOUS.
Only a minute fraction of the US's middle East attention is n the Green Zone
LOL, and these hundreds of suspicous ships ould be wiped out well before tehy could ram US NAvy ships with explosives.

it gives iran a window of opportunity to give the go order.. have these missles speed from there storing pens throughout citieis to within range then launch.

Not really, they would hvae no more advantage, thn if these bizarre diversions took place. Hell if they had 1000 missiles and launch them now, they would seriously cripple the samll percentage of the US Navy in the Gulf. But they would recive 100 times as much punishment, not to mention teh vast majority of the US fleet would be untouched as well as the USAF.

the USA would not be able to stop them before they launched, being they arent expecting it and are looking at the chaos that has just erupted all around them.

they couldn't stop a thousand missiles now. The fact is Iran doens't have anywhere near this number

of course the US could wipe them out if they KNEW IT WAS COMING.

Well no, even m,assive airstrikes would not get all of them. The US would sustain casualties, but the Iranians would suffer cartastrophic damage in a sustained Air and Naval ( guided weapons, naval aviation ) bombardment the likes which hasn't been seen since Vietnam.

but in this theoretical situation.. they dont.

Precisely so it is completely stupid to even bring it up.

the USA are not the all mighty invincible army you all beleive them to be.

Even with your strange scenario ( and completel unrealistic ) the US military would certainly prevail over Iran - there is no doubt.

if they created major distractions all over the region... had the US looking at the Iraqi insurgents attacking the green zone, wil hezbollah was obliterating israeli targets, and hunderds of suspicous ships were screaming toward the fleet in the gulf...

it gives iran a window of opportunity to give the go order.. have these missles speed from there storing pens throughout citieis to within range then launch.

the USA would not be able to stop them before they launched, being they arent expecting it and are looking at the chaos that has just erupted all around them.

Pfft! This is why I stop responding to threads!

Most people here live in fantasy land! Maybe Iran will throw 1000 bottle rockets at a CVN and then maybe they'll crush the USN! Blah Blah! .Kids!

[edit on 15-11-2006 by IAF101]

why are we setting up launch sites?
why are we needing fuel..

Why? because you need those garages and houses that you propose to hide the missiles and their huge trucks plus, they won't be in urban areas. What army would deploy so many missiles in an urban atmosphere? Even if they start rolling out from their collective bases for a surprise strike, satelite recon will definately catch them.

As for fuel, missiles need it to launch... from what I gather, these missiles (Sunburns) need a "kerosene type fuel", and liquid fuels take fairly long time to transfer from the browser to the missile (someone please help me out with this).

but i think, if iran told hezbollah to laucnh 50 suicide attacks consecutivley on american interests and general israeli interests in israel, while iraqi insurgents staged 50 suicide hits on american forces, and various fishing vessels laden with bombs started steaming toward the fleet in the gulf..

Well, apart from lack of Hezbollah's ability to wage conventional offensive campaigns, suicide attacks take an enormous amount of planning to be successful. You also have to consider that preparations required for launching 50 such attacks would definately tip off Israeli Intelligence. And you will be attacking ground forces with these initial moves, which would just heighten US naval prepardness (apart from some airstrikes or casualty evac missions).

what up with people and theoretical scenario's

do they not understand the thought of Theory?

The main shortcoming here is the understanding of what a sound theory constitutes. A good theory is based on a hypothesis that looks to either prove or disprove a thought, and this hypothesis is based on logical assertions. What you have given us is a theory and we have been trying to find its flaws and numerical inconsistancies. What we are arguing against (atleast me) is the fact that with the extent of logistics required in this operation, element of surprise cannot be achieved. What you are doing with your theory is that your hypothesis is infact your requisite data and your assertions are being doctored to prove it.

[edit on 15-11-2006 by Elven Sniper]

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
what im suggesting, is iran seem to hae been investing majorly in anti ship missles as of late.

You mean the sunburn anti ship missile?

if they created major distractions all over the region... had the US looking at the Iraqi insurgents attacking the green zone, wil hezbollah was obliterating israeli targets, and hunderds of suspicous ships were screaming toward the fleet in the gulf...

You do realise a "ship" is over 50 feet long, and to have "hundreds" of "ships" would constitute a larger navy than the US navy combined. They might be spotted before they are seen by some lone spotter on the forecastle.

the USA would not be able to stop them before they launched, being they arent expecting it and are looking at the chaos that has just erupted all around them.

of course the US could wipe them out if they KNEW IT WAS COMING.

Again do you have any idea what the Russian plan was to take out a carrie strike force?

Wow this thread is silly...

Back to the topic.

It is highly unlikely the UAV was not spotted by the US Navy. One of the few things we do know from the Israel/Hezbollah war is that Iranian UAVs are not stealthy, but they are quite capable.

Assuming the UAV footage is real, and I willing to say it most likely is, there are a few things about this that have not been discussed.

First, there are tons of good reasons why the US (insert any country actually)shouldn't do anything about the UAV, starting with creating an international incident in the Persian Gulf over a flying camara. It would be more than mildly insane to start firing weapons from a warship in international waters at an unmanned, unarmed drone as that would surely draw a bunch of unneeded international outrage. To do something would provvide a door for firing on US unmanned systems, something I am absolutely certain the US would be particularly pissed off about.

Second, there is a ton to be gained, and not much lost, by this event from a US insert any country name here) group monitoring an Iranian (insert country name here too) UAV. The US probably doesn't have a lot of operational intelligence regarding the tactical capabilities of Iranian UAVs, and monitoring not only its launch and landing zones, but its patterns in flight, provides valuable information regarding range, speed, altitude, and tactics of the UAV system as used by Iran. Evaluating the data from multiple incidents allows the US (or anyone) to develop a pattern of tactical deployment, meaning a pattern for tactical defense can also be developed.

Third, as we also learned during the Israel/Hezbollah war the Iranians, and by extention Hezbollah, is very sophisticated in their use of ELINT and SIGINT. Well, the US is too, and ELINT and SIGINT can not only be used to track the UAV, but to monitor its feeds and other information that may be broadcast to and from the UAV, including even jamming the signal from the operator of the platform. The US Navy has some of the best ELINT and SIGINT capabilties in the world, and those capabilties are even greater in Carrier Strike Groups.

Ask yourself a question, is the Iranian footage which is pretty much nothing more than a propaganda video with limited intelligence except postion of a Task Force that isn't hiding its position, the flight deck outline at that specific moment in time, and what escorts may be nearby at that particular moment a bigger gain in intelligence for Iran than it would be for the US? In trade for limited, already available information the Iranians are exposing one of their more useful and modern military systems to US SIGINT and ELINT intelligence collectors, exposing tactical deployment of a critical intelligence tool during peacetime for limited gain, and are basically giving the US an up close and personal assessment of an otherwise unknown but highly regarded (and well utilized in the past) system of war.

I don't understand how anyone can objectively look at this video and think the Iranians have gained some sort of upper hand, when indeed the winner of any data collection competition taking place during the time that video was made would probably be the US Navy, as it appears the data the Iranians gathered is pretty worthless.

That UAV threat to ships in the Persian Gulf is very real, I hope the Iranians or anyone else who would threaten to close down the Gulf continue to expose these types of systems often.