So here we go, a good 'ol brawl...
what was it the germans believed?
'' the americans Wont attack during rain, and at dawn, and at the widest part of the ocean thats suicidal ''
Now, If Iran got togehter say, 1000 missle launching trucks,
hid them in houses, garages an so forht all over Iran.
had them prep'd..
then one day, at 2am.. gave the order for hezbollah to stage an all out attacko n Israel...
In war do the unexpected.
The fundamental flaw in this theory is that what you are proposing are "classical military manoeuvres" based on set piece action. The element of
surprise counts only when you can capitalize on it. Do you think that the Iranians are naive enough to launch an attack to destroy a single American
Carrier Battle Group and later risk combined NATO and US military strikes? btw at 2am in the Persian Gulf, the US intel community will be enjoying
lunch and their assets would be at max funtionality, don't you think they'll see it coming?
Firstly, the Americans won't even have to send in ground troops from the get go, they would initially destroy critical infrastructure (like in
Serbia) through cruise missile strikes from air launched and sea launched platforms e.g B 2s, B52 and SSGNs. Hell, if required, they might sling an
ICBM or three tipped with conventional warheads (though that's unlikely). Secondly, Iranians don't have a retaliation capacity so in a war of
attrition, guess who'll come on top...
Plus it would would be a two front war, Iraq on one side and Afghanistan on the other (not to forget Diego Garcia's strategic bomber base and
numerous other bases in the Middle East). Yes, yes there are problems in Iraq and Afghanistan but the bottom line is that the Americans and NATO
countries do have bases in both regions and that has tremendous deterrence value.
About the Hezbollah... what you are proposing is hezbollah playing by the Israeli rules by launching an offensive. The Hezbollah are at best a
guerilla force and are most suited to defensive warfare. When the Iranian missiles start to rain, those home made katyushas won't be too much of an
headache for a country going for all out war, not to mention morale/patriotism/fanaticism which have been "the" deciding factors during previous
Plus for your "Americans won't attack..." quote I have another quote, "amateurs study tactics, professionals study logistics". Do you know how
tough it is to move a thousand missiles? As I said before, it requires massive movement of fuel, soldiers, equipment to construct launch sites (the
houses, garages etc. you mentioned) and communication infrastructure. Ultimately, human and electronic intel gathering assets will collect atleast
enough info to warn US forces about a possible attack.
And please dont think that the Russians and the Chinese will do any serious intervention barring noise clear their throats. The Russians backed off
from intervening in Serbia, which was right in their area of influence and the Chinese have enough intergration with the American economy that whats
good for America, is good for them. And last but not the least, Iran will be inviting Chapter 7 action of the UN Charter which would allow military
and economic sanctions against an aggressor such as Iran, who by that time would have become an international pariah anyways.
Elven Sniper, you rock!!
Thank you for bringing a sensible post to counter all the hate filled "I hope some Americans die to Iranians" ones.
Hey thanks for the vote of confidence (and the other one too!) Pokey Oats, atleast now I have two friends in the wild west
I won't be tangling
with cute Skadi (its a spookyyyy name nontheless), though I won't rule out mortal kombat with that scary kitty of hers.
[edit on 14-11
[edit on 14-11-2006 by Elven Sniper]