Suddenly, countries, states, provinces and counties around the world are running bird flu "pandemic preparedness" drills. Like this one in Dalles,
Oregon.
Worst case scenario: Pandemic preparedness drill is ‘a scenario that
could happen’
Before you panic, please note that what follows is only an exercise:
We are two weeks into an expected eight-week flu pandemic with 1,200 people hospitalized and 52 dead in the state of Oregon.
The virus responsible is antigenically similar to the H2N2 virus, which killed 1 to 4 million in 1957, and at its known attack and mortality
rate, Oregon can expect 2,500 deaths by the end of next month.
Again, this is only a test, but that is the scenario the Wasco Sherman Public Health Department and the Mid-Columbia Medical Center were working
with yesterday, as they participated in a state-wide exercise to test health systems’ readiness to respond to a potential real pandemic, or
worldwide outbreak, of influenza.
Loads of general pandemic information is being released to the public quietly, in ways guaranteed not to panic consumers or travellers. And this
coming Tuesday, the BBC is premiering a very very scary Bird Flu docu-drama.
All fall down
SOMETHING that doesn't yet exist poses a deadly threat to the entire world, possessing the potential to exterminate millions and devastate the
economy. The culprit is not visible to the naked eye, you can't taste it and it's undetectable by scent, sound or touch, yet scientists predict that
it will kill around 85% of its prey. It's a virus, and there's little we can do to thwart its attack.
According to experts, these predictions of natural bioterrorism are not scientific theory, they're global fact. Just when it seemed like the
perceived threat from a human strain of bird flu had diminished, the Horizon team brings us a film, part documentary, part dramatisation, that creates
a possible scenario showing how a pandemic might break out and be dealt with - or not. It doesn't make comforting viewing.
Apparently, the current H5N1 avian flu, which has managed to jump species from birds to humans in 224 known cases, is only one to two mutations away
from becoming a strain that passes easily between humans. This is terrifying news. Research shows that the terrible influenza outbreak in 1918, which
killed an estimated 50 million people in 14 months at the end of the First World War, was an avian virus that had spread to humans. It was transmitted
by coughs and sneezes and resulted in organ failure, massive haemorrhaging and a horrible death. Another disturbing factor was the virus's unusual
habit of sparing the usual flu victims, the very young and the old and infirm; this disease's victims were mostly aged 25 to 35.
The current flurry of bird flu-related activity started about 3 weeks ago, after the World Health Organzation announced that Indonesia had 3 deaths in
3 days from bird flu.
In a week that has seen three deaths
from avian influenza in three days, all in Indonesia... On Friday a 27-year-old woman from Central Java died a day after being hospitalized with
flu-like symptoms. Her death was confirmed Wednesday by the World Health Organization as being directly attributable to avian influenza --
Indonesia's 55th such death. ...Then Saturday an unidentified 11-year-old boy died in Jakarta's Sulianto Saroso Hospital for Infectious Diseases.
...On Sunday a 72-year-old grandmother died of avian influenza in a highly unusual case that also saw her affected by encephalitis. The woman, from
Cisarua in West Java, was placed in a bird-flu isolation ward Oct. 7 and lost consciousness for a day due to encephalitis. Her kidneys were also
affected. ...No other Indonesian bird-flu victim has been affected by encephalitis...
***
Bird flu found in pigs in Indonesia's Bali
The H5N1 bird flu virus has infected pigs on the Indonesian resort island of Bali, a senior agriculture ministry official said on Monday.
"There were two pigs that were infected by bird flu in Bali. These were old cases that happened last July," Musni Suatmodjo, agriculture ministry
director of animal health, told Reuters. ...It was not clear if the pigs died.
Pigs are a concern because they are susceptible to many of the viruses that infect humans. Swines can act as mixing vessels in which genetic
material from avian flu viruses can mix with human influenza viruses, potentially producing new and deadly strains for which humans have no
immunity.
Then nothing. Nada. Zilch. No more bird flu news out of Indonesia. Except for this tiny snippet from Vietnam on Friday, November 3.
In Indonesia, for example, the disease is spreading quickly at the moment. ...The
World Health Organization is warning that scientists have discovered a virulent strain of the H5N1 virus in China’s poultry flocks and it is
spreading fast too.
But suddenly - everyone's gearing up for a pandemic. Even though only one bird flu death, in Egypt, has been reported in the past 3 weeks.
Interesting.
Also see:
Coincidence or Coverup? Pandemic Drill Coincides with Virulent Virus Outbreak
Warning
.
[edit on 4-11-2006 by soficrow]
