posted on Oct, 27 2006 @ 02:47 AM
There are 44 Democrats in the senate, plus one left-leaning independent (Jeffords, who will probably be replaced by another independent, Bernie
Sanders. Sanders caucuses with the Democrats in the House and probably will in the Senate).
This means the democrats need a net gain of 6.
It's a good year for the Republicans if they lose 4 in the senate. It's average if they lose 5, making it a 50-50 tie and Dick Cheney gets the
deciding vote. It's a bad year if they lose control because that means losing a southern state that leans in their favor normally. It's a nightmare
if they lose AZ or NV, but they theoretically could.
New Jersey is the only Democratic seat considered too close to call by most polls. A few others have been classified as only "leaning" democrat as
opposed to safe, but short of a major October surprise or some unforseen shift in turnout (or of course ballot problems) NJ is the only seat in real
danger for the Dems, and I think they can keep it.
Most polls show between 5 and 7 Republican seats being either too close to call or leaning democrat. Those states are Missouri, Montana, Ohio,
Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Tennessee, and Virginia.
Of those 7 states, the least likely to change hands are Virginia and Tennessee: no major poll classifies them as leaning democrat, only as tossups or
as leaning republican.
Missouri is the 3rd least likely to change hands. Electoralvote.com and Election Projection call it leaning democrat, Rasmussen and 5 other polls call
it a tossup, nobody calls it leaning republican.
The other 4 states are pretty likely to change hands. Pennsylvania is widely regarded as lost. Montana and Ohio aren't far behind. Rhode Island is
slightly closer, but still leaning toward the Dems.
After this election, it's gonna be really close in the senate, and there's gonna be a brawl.
If Republican Bob Corker wins in Tenn (I think he will) the Democrats are going to go after him almost immediately for some suspicious land deals that
happened when he was mayor of Chattanooga, Tenn. By February or March we'll probably all be talking about that Republican who sold protected wetlands
to Walmart through a not-so-blind trust, then "lost" a boatload of official correspondence and emails to cover it up.
They'll do that because they control the governor's mansion in Tenn, meaning that if they can force a resignation or get him arrested, then either
the legislature will put up a democrat or governor Bredesen will make a recess appointment.
Meanwhile they'll be putting a full court press on the RINOs, especially John Sununu. Sununu, a moderate who worked with the "gang of 14" has to
run in 2008 and he should be afraid of losing to a democrat on coattails, so if the Democrats promise to protect him in 2008, there's a chance that
he'll declare himself an independent.
On the other hand, if the Republicans lose I wouldn't be too surprised if somebody had a plane crash or a heart attack.