posted on Oct, 12 2006 @ 09:44 PM
Escalation would be a bad idea. Half-hearted escalation would be a worse idea.
If someone proposed raising US troop levels in North Korea, I'm not sure I'd like it, but I suppose I could understand the argument.
Raising troop levels in South Korea merely as a threat would invite a war by miscalculation. The best case scenario for such a miscalculation would be
that the North makes good progress without using nukes and we decide to back down. The worst case, and most likely scenario once we have made mistakes
which result in them seizing the initiative, is that they nuke our boys the minute we start to turn the tide and within a two weeks of the whole mess
starting there won't be an inch of soil on the whole peninsula worth fighting over for about a hundred years.
I think a big part of the problem with North Korea is a fear of stepping outside the box. They're too scared to change and we're afraid anything
positive we try to do will only make things worse.
I think it's time for the US to reevaluate the risks associated with using a bigger carrot, because the fundamental rule of conflict is that at least
one side must want something bad enough to fight for it. I say give the mouse a cookie- nothing fancy, just one of those cheap little minis to hold
him over, and a dixie cup of milk, because the little rodent will definately bite you over food. But will he be willing to fight to trade the dixie
cup for a real glass? I don't think so, particularly if it means no more cookies.
I'd encourage the US, Japan, and South Korea to get together with China and Russia and arrange a program to absolutely heap the right kind of
incentives on North Korea with minimal strings attatched.
Power plants for a nuclear freeze was way way too ambitious for the relationship between the US and North Korea. That level of trust does not exist
between our nations. We need to build that over time, and the way things are going we should probably get started. It's not too late really, because
we're in a stalemate that will last until either there is a war or the North Korean government decays and falls.
So make some small trades and cultural exchanges to build trust.
We'll train your doctors if you'll start sendin them on UN humanitarian efforts.
We'll give you some farm equipment and advisors to help your prisons produce food for you, if you'll let the Red Cross in.
We'll let KIA move some of its parts department into the North if you'll let a handful of South Korean workers commute across the border to work
You run little things like that for a while, then you start upping the ante with bigger offers:
Reduce your conscription rate this year and we'll allow a few student visas and work permits for some of them.
Let's each pull 10% of our forces on the 38th back about 10 miles, and 6 months after thap happens, the 10% we pulled out will leave the peninsula
How about a mutually defensive posture between you and Japan? We'll get you some Russian SS-22s and S-300s if you'll hand over half of your Taepo
more later. gotta work.