Will North Korea Push Japan To The Right?

Now that North Korea has tested it's first nuclear device in defiance of international calls to disarm, will Japan move yet still further away from it's anti-nuclear stance and aquire a nuclear capability of it's own? Most analysts say no because there is still such a horror of nuclear weapons among the Japanese populace due to the bombs dropped on Hiroshima and Nagasaki, in 1945. However, Japan may increase it's military might in the region in an attempt to protect itself against N Korean agression.




As N Korea continues to thumb it's nose at international calls to disarm and instead continues to escalate it's nuclear capability, how can Japan refrain from at the least increasing it's military presence in the region? The same goes for South Korea; and being that S Korea and Japan are both such close friends and allies, how can the US turn it's back if they should ask for military and/or armament assistance? After all, we have a vested interest in a peaceful and secure Asia, do we not?

On the other hand, what would increased miltary activity by it's Asian neighbors do to Kim's already paranoid brain? Lots of questions and very few answers but look for things to move quickly toward some type of dramatic development in the region in the coming week.

Related News Links:
mdn.mainichi-msn.co.jp
www.mercurynews.com

Related AboveTopSecret.com Discussion Threads:
Report: North Korea conducts nuke test
North Korea Announced That They Will Test a Nuclear Bomb

[edit on 10/9/2006 by Stormrider]

[edit on 10/9/2006 by Stormrider]

In the short term, perhaps the best solution is for Japan to build up its missile defense tech, rather than shift to the right, change teh constitution, and build up an army capable of offensive action.

I agree, play them off of each other. If nuclear proliferation is inevitable, which it appear's to be. Then the sooner free countrie's are fully armed the more stable the situation will be through Mutually Assured Destruction.


Unfortunately, MAD doesn't stand up to the theology of Martyrdom!

I dont understand this huge shift to pacifism by the Japanese. They were at one time, one of the most war like groups in the world.

Many people forget that these are the people that spawned the Samurai, the bushido code and their ASBSOLUTE allegiance to thier country (the emperor prior to WW2).

The very same people who believed it was more honorable to die by their sword or enemies, than to be captured. you want me to believe 2 atomic bombs has changed the most warrior oriented culture on the face of the earth? I dont buy it....

I think the japanese will use that stockpile of plutonium they have and the sooner they do the better.

As for American involvement, sell them the new defense missile tech and any offensive weapons they would want.

Heck, this will probably get China mad at ol Kim Jong. This might be an excellent opportunity for the USA, we could strengthen or relationship with China by participating in a large "pincer" like movement. We have US Millitary in S Korea as well as Japan( Okinawa). Basicly, I think China and the USA should bomb Kim Jong Il together, and then stike a deal for Taiwan staying it's own country and giving over large areas of N Korea to China in trade. Heck russia could join in too. We get Kim Jong Il out( good for the USA, it gets rid of a rouge player and possible nuclear weapons dealer), and China and Russia would get N Korea( land is always tempting...it's a possible buisness market after all).

I think that in the event of a war the best option would be to simply reunited the Korean peninsula. After all, the seperation is what's caused most of the problems. With no Soviet Union, and an increasingly capatalistic China I think that reunification could be a very real possibility. Unless of course the DPRK use's it's new little nuclear arsenal, in which case the joint response will probably leave North Korea about as habitable as Venus.

No one could blame Japan for re-thinking their depend on America current defense strategy, and now that I think of it, it was never their idea to begin with it was forced on them as a concession of defeat. Japan could easilly increase defense expenditures and become millitarily potent without wrecking thier economy. Unlike many wanna be powers, Japan has industrial capabillities, manpower, and scientific/research capabillities to be formidable. Combine this with ancient martial traditions, and you have a potentially fearsome nation. If I were a Japanese millitary man, politician, or hell, even voter; and realizing that my nations defense was dependent on a potent but currently pre-occupied ally, I'd demand rethinking current defense policies.

I'm an ex army guy myself but i've read and heard from people who know better than me that great navies are as dependent on traditions as they are technologies. I'm not exactly sure what this means, navy guys were always a little weird to me, but i do know that China is currently building a blue water navy. They have little in the way of Naval experience and traditions, but gobs of cash and manpower, and the best tech that they can develop or steal. A re-armed Japan would have the best naval tech that they could buy from the US or develop in house and quite a bit of Naval experience and traditions to fall back on and would be a regional counter weight. I don't believe that China would like to see a new Japanese Imperial Navy(or whatever it would be called)operating in the neighborhod.Unless China is playing a very sublime and calculated political game with thier biggest trading partners and the rest of the world, they can't be happy about Kimbo's decision to test a weapon.

Many in Japan are still unsure about building up their army.

The solution to this problem will probably end up with China and Japan working together to control North Korea. Korea will unite at some point, but currently, the communist power will have to remain and slowly be introduce to democracy for Korea to come together peacefully.

North Korean people are extremely brainwashed, so it will be hard for them to ovethrow the government (plus, that is way an invasion will prove impossible. The people are waiting for an invasion)

Its good news that Japan will not seek a policy change on nuclear weapons. That will make the area even worse if an arms race starts to happen.

MAD already applies as they are already under the umbrella of the wests Nuclear Arsenal so they just don't need it.

Missile Defense however would be prudent on their part. Nth Korea will most likely never be able to field a large number of offensive missiles at Japan so even a rudimentary defensive system, upgrading faster then Kims arsenal is upgrading, will keep them safe.

There is no point in trying to defend against Russia or China though as they have the resources to fool most defensive systems. You don't need technology to do that, just resources.

[edit on 10-10-2006 by sardion2000]

The U.S. will probably end up deploying nuclear missiles to Japan to be under joint U.S. - Japanese control, like we did in Europe against the USSR unless the situation changes soon.