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NK Nuclear Tests. How does it change the Politics of Asia & The World? - Discuss Here

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posted on Oct, 9 2006 @ 02:52 AM
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So the DPRK has finally done it. They have tested a Nuclear Weapon. According to seismologists it is a low-yeild warhead (15-20 kilotonnes). To put things in perspective, this was about the size of the bombs dropped on Hiroshima & Nagasaki.

What i want, are your takes on how this wil change the political and military scenario in Asia.

I for one see the revival of a miltary power that is Japan. They will strengthen their defences and will once again be a major military force to be reckoned with. Probably surpassing the relative strength they had during WWII.

Also this poses a brand new challange for China. A rising Japan cannot be good news for it. I do not think they want another contender to their military superiority in the East-Asian region. How do you think this will change their situation?

What about Iran? Will they too now defy the US and go in for their own Nuclear tests and weapons. I mean they are bound to think that "if NK can do it, then so can we"

Lastly the NPT. Is it not as good as DEAD? Nobody really seems to be listening to it.




posted on Oct, 9 2006 @ 08:12 AM
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To say that Japan, South Korea, and the Peoples Republic of China are a little uneasy would be an understatement.

"A Great Leap Forward for Korea." or however the gov't. spokesman put it. Wouldn't a better leap be feeding your population? "Great" doesn't neccessarily equate to good. How many millions have starved, or are starving, just so Kim can stroke his already bloated ego? He so desparately wants to be a "player" on the international scene, he's willing to kill off a large portion of his population to do so.

Let's see, N. Korea has the bomb, N. Korea is working on, and will eventually perfect an intermediate range delivery system (a rocket), and are ruled by a megalomaniac...Oh, joy...the next few years are going to be interesting.

This is such a not good thing. I would guess that another war is in the makings...not today or even tommorrow. Only it won't be the US as the instigator. I suspect that the PRC is going to act, and oddly enough, South Korea and Japan may just help them do it. The US doesn't need to do anything here, the PRC is perfectly capable of handling the task.



posted on Oct, 9 2006 @ 08:33 AM
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If the PRC does act, alliances that we thought were strong will change. Japan and South Korea would be foolish if they didn't at least contemplate allying themselves, however temporarily, with the big bad dragon, they are afterall neighbors.

What this entails in the longrun is anyones guess...so I'll make one.

If the big bad dragon does act, and Japan and South Korea align themselves with China...Taiwan's days are numbered. Will China use a successful campaign against N. Korea to assume, or at least attempt to, hegemony in the far east? How would India, another fast riser, react?

The political ramifications of this are, and will be, farflung. Let's see...North Korea has the bomb...China's not happy...Japan's not happy...South Korea's not happy. Japan and South Korea are two of the more technologically advanced nations on Earth, China has a military second only to the United States, and maybe not by all that much. So, these 3 get together, however reluctantly, to put paid to Kim's long overdue account and soon the Korean Penninsula is embroiled in war. Using the tech advantages that Japan and S. Korea provide...the Peoples Army stomps little Kim into the mud. OK.

The other Asian power, India...what are they doing while all this is going on...not so freindly rivals of China, do they sit by doing nothing? Or do they supply N. Korea with aid, in hopes of giving the big bad dragon a black eye. If N. Korea looses the fight, which seems likely; does a suddenly potent Asian alliance turn their attention to India, for having aided N. Korea?

Complicated doesn't even begin to cover it... I left the US out of it, on the probably baseless assumption that busy in the ME, we decide to let the Chinese, Japanese, and South Koreans handle it. I also left out cultural differences that would undoubtably play a huge role. All because one little man isn't satisfied with starving his own people, he want's to influance everyone else, too. Credit where credit is due, he's succeeded.



posted on Oct, 9 2006 @ 10:05 AM
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however interesting your ideas may be seagull, I find them to be rather improbable for many reasons.
One must first undersatnd WHY North Korea enjoys so much support from its communist neighbour. Is it just a friendly commie comrade thing?
Not really..
The primary reasons for China supporting the North Korean Regime are:

1) It provides a very very good buffer against american forces in Asia. Any future chinese confrontation with the US or Japan or S Korea will not be w/o North Korean activity, may it be direct or indirect.

2)A collapse of the North Korean Regime will cause millions and millions of refugees to pour into China thus creating a humanitarian disaster forcing China to allocate resources to deal with the same. China prefers to give fuel and food to the North Koreans rather than face such a crisis.

Keeping the above two points in mind it is in my opinion (and most other people) that China will never go harsh on North Korea, to the extent of even employing severe sanctions, forget military action!!

Addressing your second point about India:

India has much to resent from North Korea considering the fact the w/o the N Koreans, the Pakistanis wouldn't be able to build delivery systems that could target the far southern states of India. Because of N Korea, almost all of India(except for a few islands far off in the Bay of Bengal) has come under the Pakistani nuclear gunsight.
One must note that most of Pakistan's (and for that matter Iran's) long range missiles are direct derivatives(or even copies) of North Korean Nodong/Taepodong ballistic missiles. Their (NK)missile technology far exceeded that either possessed by Iran or Pakistan, while Pakistan had the edge in nuclear technology(which it has clandestinely acquired from China btw).
The barter deal between NK and Pakistan of missiles/N-weapons tech is something one must definitely read up on.

India's best interests would be to seriously improve ties with Japan(South Korea is still emotionally bound to its northern brother)and push China to put more pressure on North Korea to do something to stabilise the region.

You see the greatest consequnence India may have to pay due to this act of stupidity by the North Koreans is possibly having to lose out on the almost finalised Nuclear Deal with the US. This deal allows access of nuclear fuel(as supplied by the NSG) to India w/o it being a member of the NPT. In return India opens up 2/3rds of its reactors to IAEA inspection.
With this test, Anti Indo-US nuclear deal hawks in Congress(and elsewhere) will get the fodder they need to cry foul and say..
"hey!! look where proliferation has got us now! We've got a crazy dictator with tested nukes all mad at us. Do we really want to risk giving nuclear fuel to another 'new' nuclear weapons state however clean its non-proliferation record may be? Maybe we should slow down and look this through. We're in enough trouble as it is!"..
And lo.. India loses out on nuclear fuel.
India does observe diplomatic relations with N Korea. But it is highly critical of the regimes Missile proliferation w.r.t. Pakistan and is obviously now highly critical of these tests.



posted on Oct, 11 2006 @ 06:45 AM
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Howdy. The whole premise of my conjucture was that alliances change as the circumstance that caused them in the first place change. China allied itself with N. Korea to provide, as you said, a buffer against what it percieves as a possible threat. It seems to me, that with Kim in control of a nuclear arsenal, he now constitutes a threat to China far greater than Japan or the US. My thoughts reflected that...

I will admit that China has much to gain from continuing their relationship with N. Korea...I submit however, that that relationship is undergoing some hasty review at this moment. Kim, and his daddy before him, has always gone his own way in matters of policy.

Thanks for the critique though. I agree, abit farfetched, but certainly possible, given how alliances are things of the moment, and generally not permanent in nature.






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