How Much of a Warning Will We Have...

If another country sends a nuclear missle to America? Can they see it coming and tell everyone to find a fallout shelter or another kind of shelter? Or will it just happen without any warning? What about if it is from someone already in America?

About 20 minutes would be the maximum warning we would get if an ICBM were launched from Asia or the mid-east.

Oh, wow. Thats not alot of time to find somewhere to go

This is a very dark view, but the odds are in your favor unless you live in NY, DC. or LA. Any entity that would actually launch against us likely has only a small handful of warheads. And so far, none of the likley suspects have a reliable ICBM that can reach us. Low yield suitcase devices are much more likely and scary.

Great! I live in New York


Would the suitcase devices cause fall out too?

First, there are very few countries with the capability to launch an ICBM attack --- primarily the former USSR and China. ICBM's are not the kind of thing you launch off the back of the truck. Because they go into space and then re-eneter to hit their target the flight times are fairly long. From these countries the point-to-point time would be something less than 30min. If it was a submarine attack (SLBM) there would be virtually no warning since the missles fly sub-orbital. Same would be true of a ground detonated weapon that was pre-positioned or maybe in a truck.

People in the blast zone would pretty much be toast from the blast and thermal radiation. There would be a delay, however, as the radioactive fallout came back to earth for people to seek shelter from that. Would the government warn us if they saw it coming? Who knows....

Originally posted by enjoies05

Great! I live in New York


Would the suitcase devices cause fall out too?

That makes two of us.

Suitcase devices would be in the 10-20 kiloton range and would generate a vaporization radius of .5 to 1 mile, flash fires 1-2 miles. Blast damage out to 5-6 miles and there would be heavy gamma radiation.

Not nice.

I think that with the current state of affairs in the world you shouldn't worry about a missle attack.

The real fear is that some people will try to smuggle a device into the country. In that case, you won't have any time to worry about it if you're close by.

How far away do you have to be to have a chance of surviving in a shelter?


Because I'm pretty far away from NYC and I'd imagine thats were they would attack

Besides seeing an actual cloud, communications would probably be a first clue.
Major communications disruption would occur. Those that still had means of communication would notify those that they could.
Heavy radiation would kill those within close proximity and then fallout would occur for those living outside those areas.

What if you rented a business office in one of the tall buildings in the city and set it off higher up would give more damage from the blast. The first 24 hours in the city would be HELL on Earth.

How many diplomatic offices are in the City? A whole lot.

Duck and Cover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Originally posted by bufordny
What if you rented a business office in one of the tall buildings in the city and set it off higher up would give more damage from the blast. The first 24 hours in the city would be HELL on Earth.
Duck and Cover!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

This is probably how the nuclear exchange will start.You will have 24-48hrs before the really big nukes start flying.Enough time to relocate to a rural area if you live in one of the big cities

There really is no cookie cutter, one size fits all answer here. There are so many variables to deal with.

The first major questions have to do with the nature of the attack: 1. How many weapon detonations, what size were they, and where the ground burst or air burst?

1. Number of detonations. The more blasts the more complications.
2. The size. Suitcase size nukes or a "homemade" terrorist bomb would be about 20 kilotons max. Anything within 1-2 miles gone....3-4 heavy damage and fires....4-5 moderate damage, but most people indoors would survive with only minor injuries in most cases. Not 200-500 kilotons, whole cities and surrounding areas would be gone.
3. Airburst or ground burst. Airbursts cause more blast and thermal damage over wider areas, but much less fallout, groundbursts cause less damage, but more fallout is produced.

The second question is what are the weather patterns during and with in the days following the attack. Because the fall out is going to go downwind from the detonations. Got that..downwind. Get upwind of any blast if possible If you start downwind don't go to ground zeor....travel perpendicular to the wind as quickly as possible.

Strip and wash when you get out of the area. Try not to breath the dust.

If you are in the fallout pattern get in a fallout shelter, a basement, a subway, even an interior room outside. Just put as much material between you and the outside. Most bomb fallout will "half life" off within 72 hours and almost completly within 14 days accordinig to most government and independent studies.

Let's look at a couple basic assumptions on the suitcase nuke scenario (since Russia and China don't really have national death wishes and the terror event is currently most probably).

There will be little or more likely no warning.

They will hit major cities for max casualties and effect. Rural areas are likely fine, even suburbs away from city centers that are hit will likely survive.

If say, 10 go off around the country (what Al Quedia has indicated is their goal),
anyone withing about 2 miles of the blast zones are gone. There will be 10 fall out clouds to worry about. Remember, get out of the path of the clouds and debris from ground zero(s). If you can't try to find a suitable fallout shelter. If you live far away from targets hit, the radioactive clouds will likely be tracked by the weather service, although communication of this info will be spotty.

If you see a blast, DON"T LOOK AT IT, drop to the ground and if possible get behind something solid. If you survive the blast and fireball, there will still be flying debris like in a tornado. This will kill you as quick as the bomb effects. Determine where you are in regards to the blast, and the prevailing winds, and get UPWIND.

The bigger problems will be the panic, the run on stores, shortages, communications and service problems (even in cities not hit), refugees, looting, rioting, economic break down and collapse. These will cause as many problems as the 10 suitcase bombs in the long run, probably more.

Couple of links. There are many more, but these should give you a start.

en.wikipedia.org...

www.nationalterroralert.com...

en.wikipedia.org...

www.nuclearterror.org...

This last one is the blast mapper. You put in your zip code and it shows the effect of a 10 Kiloton blast. 10-20 is about the most a terrorist would likely have. There are other blast mappers, but most of them show the blasts from the larger weapons, some up to the megatons. As you can see on the 10 kiloton blast, out side of 1 mile from ground zero, the direct effects start to drop off.



[edit on 29-9-2006 by Sr Wing Commander]

It might be strage to say, but this is something you shouldn't worry about too much.

Aside from having some emergancy supplies handy (which you should do anyway, in case of natural disaster), there isn't much you could do about it if someone desided to set off a nuke in your area.

It's much more worth your time to worry about ways to help ensure that it doesn't happen. I don't mean go kill all the "terrorists". Agreshion only breeds agreshion. I mean help build a sociaty were we don't feel compelled to unleash this kind of horror on eachother.

Tollerance, understanding, and compassion are much more effective weapons for fighting terrorism than guns, tanks, or bombs.

Originally posted by darkbluesky

Originally posted by enjoies05

Great! I live in New York


Would the suitcase devices cause fall out too?

That makes two of us.

Suitcase devices would be in the 10-20 kiloton range and would generate a vaporization radius of .5 to 1 mile, flash fires 1-2 miles. Blast damage out to 5-6 miles and there would be heavy gamma radiation.

Not nice.

This article says that a suitcase nuke has the power of 10-20 TONS not kilotons. It would probally destroy about a city block. I have never read about ones that are 10-20 k tons.www.nationalterroralert.com...

[edit on 29-9-2006 by steve99]

Wing Commander's post is good (there have been alot of bad ones here recently). The only thing I would add is to think long and hard before deciding to evacuate (cut-and-run) immediately after the blast(s). Keep post-Katrina images in your head. Movement is going to be very difficult if not impossible and beeing massed with thousands of panicked people is going to do nothing for your chances of survival. The best thing to do post-event is to hunker down and wait for the fallout decay and for things to settle down some. Then assess the situation and decide accordingly. The last thing you want to have happen is to get stranded.

Here's another link that models blast effect that I like better than the one SWC provided:

Blast Mapper

Originally posted by steve99

Originally posted by darkbluesky

Originally posted by enjoies05

Great! I live in New York


Would the suitcase devices cause fall out too?

That makes two of us.

Suitcase devices would be in the 10-20 kiloton range and would generate a vaporization radius of .5 to 1 mile, flash fires 1-2 miles. Blast damage out to 5-6 miles and there would be heavy gamma radiation.

Not nice.

This article says that a suitcase nuke has the power of 10-20 TONS not kilotons. It would probally destroy about a city block. I have never read about ones that are 10-20 k tons.www.nationalterroralert.com...

[edit on 29-9-2006 by steve99]

Steve - I know there are alot of articles out there on this topic so there must be a huge range of estimates on yield, however a 10-20 KT device in a package that can be handled by one man or placed in a car trunk is technically feasible. I was going from memory when I cited 10-20 KT. Doing a a little reseach, it seems 1-5 KT is more likely. Please review these links if interested.

www.unitedstatesaction.com...

www.lewrockwell.com...

cns.miis.edu...


I think the psychological effect of even a small .01 - .02 KT device detonated in a US city will be servere. There will be initial shock, however after the shock passes, whomever was responsible should make themselves ready to meet their God.


[edit on 9/29/2006 by darkbluesky]

Originally posted by darkbluesky

Originally posted by steve99

Originally posted by darkbluesky

Originally posted by enjoies05

Great! I live in New York


Would the suitcase devices cause fall out too?

That makes two of us.

Suitcase devices would be in the 10-20 kiloton range and would generate a vaporization radius of .5 to 1 mile, flash fires 1-2 miles. Blast damage out to 5-6 miles and there would be heavy gamma radiation.

Not nice.

This article says that a suitcase nuke has the power of 10-20 TONS not kilotons. It would probally destroy about a city block. I have never read about ones that are 10-20 k tons.www.nationalterroralert.com...

[edit on 29-9-2006 by steve99]

Steve - I know there are alot of articles out there on this topic so there must be a huge range of estimates on yield, however a 10-20 KT device in a package that can be handled by one man or placed in a car trunk is technically feasible. I was going from memory when I cited 10-20 KT. Doing a a little reseach, it seems 1-5 KT is more likely. Please review these links if interested.

www.unitedstatesaction.com...

www.lewrockwell.com...

cns.miis.edu...


I think the psychological effect of even a small .01 - .02 KT device detonated in a US city will be servere. There will be initial shock, however after the shock passes, whomever was responsible should make themselves ready to meet their God.


[edit on 9/29/2006 by darkbluesky]

I agree even a small one would cause problems. Not only for us but for who ever supplied it and the ones who set it off.