Has the turd hit the fan?, page 1
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reply posted on 26-9-2006 @ 08:10 PM by Zarniwoop
Originally posted by jaguarmike

Seems to me this is getting huge- way too much turmoil. WWIII pre-panic? Any thoughts?



My feeling is that the turd has been spinning in the fan for decades. There's no exponential increase in the volume or severity of the issues of today compared to those of the 50's, 60's, etc. There has always been turmoil between countries and the promise of wiping each other out. Yes, there are a couple of new players in the nuke club, but that won't start WWIII. Once you are a legit card-carrying member, you are able to negotiate.

There has always been the political fight between the left and the right. The real difference that I see, is the frequency and accessibility of information available to the public, especially via Internet channels. It seems like a lot more is going on now, because the outlets for such information just weren't available in the past... Well, they were, but they were just harder to find. Even during the Internet boom in the mid-late 90's, the focus was mainly on eCommerce, games, and social discussion boards. What I have seen in the last few years is a huge increase in focus on timely (down to the minute) news and information in the mainstream (Drudge, CNN, etc) and a migration towards discussion/questioning of these topics in the not-so-mainstream (yea ATS!!!)

So, my point is... same stuff, different day. I don't think we're looking at WWIII, but we are able to monitor what information/disinformation is being fed to us pretty closely.


reply posted on 28-9-2006 @ 07:39 PM by Jack_Deth
Luckily the learning curve for someone to build a nuclear weapon is huge. No terrorist organization has the means of doing so. Even if they had the knowhow, they wouldn't have the resources, uranium is hard to come by. Even if you knew where it was, it would involve a huge mining and refining operation that would definately be tracked via satellite.

So the most plausible solution for this would be for the terrorists to buy a nuclear weapon on the blackmarket (ie: from Russian Mafia, etc). There are supposed suitcase variant nuclear bombs. It is a little conspiracy theory but a few years back supposedly 100 of these were unaccounted for. I don't know if this story was ever authenticated and I doubt it could be authenticated regardless.

However, smuggling these into the western world is going to be rather difficult. That is why, if something like this is going to happen, it is going to happen in Israel first. If a terrorist did detonate a nuclear bomb in Israel, he hopefully realizes this is going to backfire on him. The arab world will also be contaminated depending on wind patterns and just as many muslims would potentially die from the aftermath of this.

If this were to happen on US soil, the loss of life would be tremendous yes. Maybe 50-100,000 from the initial blast and 5x more over the next decade of radiation related death. However, this would change our stance on the war as a whole, much like it did on September 11th in the first place. Instead of having 175,000 soldiers on the ground (Iraq/Afghanistan), I am sure a draft would be enacted and we could swell this number to 1,000,000 in a matter of months and include a variety of theatres.

Luckily the terrorists would only have a finite amount of these nuclear weapons as they can't produce them theirselves. I am also sure that there would be more cooperation from countries such as Egypt and Saudi Arabia in this event. In Saudi Arabia especially, their leaders are cowards and given proper motivation (their death, loss of power) they will follow the US lead.



reply posted on 28-9-2006 @ 09:46 PM by Agit8dChop
Originally posted by Jack_Deth

Korean War - 54,000 over 3 years (18,000 per year)
Vietnam War - 58,000 over 10 years (5,800 per year)
Gulf War II - 2700 over 3.5 years (771 per year)

Things are looking up. These are the times to be living in, no regrets.


Id like to stress that todays world is definately NOT the time to be living in.
Back in the first two wars, since ww2.. you'll notice the US Went in for a reason, for a goal... we lost alot of people due to equality in boots on ground technology.

Nowadays.. we scream our supremacy to the heavens.. yet we find ourselves being killed in the streets daily.. with our new weapons..
We dont have a goal any more.. we dont even have a system..
We dont know whom our enemy is... all we know is that all the surrounding nations are joining there fight..

and for the first time since ww2, in comparison to those wars... they managed to strike us.. on our own turf... un detected.

In no way is todays conflict similiar, or 'better' than in previous years.

Back during the cuban crisis, we had a level headed president, who chose to look weak, and want negotiations.. RATHER than use force.. and fight for dominance.
Back then we lived in a world where we all worked for our familes.. to make the country a better place..
We now work for greedy coporations.. who would as quickly fire you and leave u and ur family breadless as long as it made there bottom dollar slightly higher..

Back then we had a long way to go, in terms of bettering ourselves..
since we have simply stuck to what we have.. polluted the air a little more.. and made our foreign affairs as complicated as it can be.

How is todays situation on the ground less ominous? how are the media making it worse?

BAck then, you had a group of soilders walking through a korean town.. being thanked by the soilders for driving out the Nkoreans..
Today.. you have a group of UNDER prepared soilders.. being pelted by rocks and bullets and bombs from the locals.. because your driving THEM out of there own homes...

Sorry to say, but the #ith has hitith, the fanith...


reply posted on 28-9-2006 @ 11:06 PM by CaptainIraq
First off, I'd like to make a comment that despite what your all thinking, WWIII is not going to happen any time soon. Look into the past at the years before the other World Wars. Today's world is happy funland compared to those times. Also, the Cold War. That was a threat. I know, because when my dad was in the Air Force during those times, he slept in the hanger on a cot next to his F-111 armed to the teeth with nukes. We're not quite there yet. So, like IronMan said, take everything on the news you hear with a grain of salt.

Originally posted by Jack_Deth
Luckily the learning curve for someone to build a nuclear weapon is huge. No terrorist organization has the means of doing so.

Have you ever looked on google for how to build a nuke? Try it.


Originally posted by Jack_Deth
Even if they had the knowhow, they wouldn't have the resources, uranium is hard to come by. Even if you knew where it was, it would involve a huge mining and refining operation that would definately be tracked via satellite.


Not with all of those storage facilities from the former Soviet Union sitting unguarded with refined U-235 in them. Although, we do make it pretty hard to get here in the States.

Originally posted by Jack_Deth
So the most plausible solution for this would be for the terrorists to buy a nuclear weapon on the blackmarket (ie: from Russian Mafia, etc).


Despite what you may think the Mafia/Black Market doesn't have everything, let alone nukes they're willing to sell to terrorists. If that were so then Iraq would be glowing green

Originally posted by Jack_Deth
There are supposed suitcase variant nuclear bombs. It is a little conspiracy theory but a few years back supposedly 100 of these were unaccounted for. I don't know if this story was ever authenticated and I doubt it could be authenticated regardless.


Nukes get labeled "unaccounted for" all the time. Just because they were misplaced doesn't mean they were stolen. Again, Iraq would be glowing green.


Originally posted by Jack_Deth
However, smuggling these into the western world is going to be rather difficult.


You bet your sweet behind it is. The coast guard is busier than ever nowadays.

Originally posted by Jack_Deth
That is why, if something like this is going to happen, it is going to happen in Israel first. If a terrorist did detonate a nuclear bomb in Israel, he hopefully realizes this is going to backfire on him. The arab world will also be contaminated depending on wind patterns and just as many muslims would potentially die from the aftermath of this.


I totally agree with you there. Terrorists are extreme, but not stupid. Some would, some wouldn't.

Originally posted by Jack_Deth

If this were to happen on US soil, the loss of life would be tremendous yes. Maybe 50-100,000 from the initial blast and 5x more over the next decade of radiation related death. However, this would change our stance on the war as a whole, much like it did on September 11th in the first place. Instead of having 175,000 soldiers on the ground (Iraq/Afghanistan), I am sure a draft would be enacted and we could swell this number to 1,000,000 in a matter of months and include a variety of theatres.


If there's going to be a draft, I hope they put it off for two years until I get accepted into the Air Force Academy.

Overall, we can safely say that if terrorists had easy access to nukes, they would've used one already.

As for North Korea, I haven't heard much from them. They've been fairly quiet in the past few months. Last words for the night: take a look at history and compare events to today's before assuming things. You'll be suprised with what you find.

[edit on 28-9-2006 by CaptainIraq]


reply posted on 28-9-2006 @ 11:23 PM by Agit8dChop
Originally posted by CaptainIraq
First off, I'd like to make a comment that despite what your all thinking, WWIII is not going to happen any time soon. Look into the past at the years before the other World Wars. Today's world is happy funland compared to those times. Also, the Cold War.


I bet if you asked someone in say.. America in 1939 wether they beleived ww2 was about to happen they'd steadfastly deny it.

Because Germany finding a legal way to occupya part of chezq was unheard of, and didnt happen in the lead up 2 ww1...
Are you saying we should wait for someone to be assinated? or maybe for a powerful country to illegially occupy another country?

Point is, todays world is a hell of a lot different.. and it wouldnt need the events from the 30/40's to signify a world war.

There are enough flsh points for a world war to happen just on a couple of co'incidences...

Russia & Georgia.caucus, nkorea/south korea, china/taiwann, usa/ME, israel/ME
It will only take ONE event, for all of these to cascade into conflicts.

me personally?

Having two major skyscrapers attacked, and obliterated in a major city by surprise has great will on a world war.
Having a fraudulent election in the world superpower effectivley electing a man that the world hates, and the citizens dont trust could again add will to a world war.
occupying a country illegially and making money of it, again adds more weight to the will of a world war..
diminshing economy grouped with soaring energy costs again just keep tipping the scales to world war.

Is a world war coming? how the hell should I know.
Are events taking place which could LEAD to open conflict? You betchya.
Imagine not having the UN during the cuban crisis..
we would of had world war then, simply because enough countries had enough technological KNOW how to be a crucial player...
Well, now even MORE countries have the power and these powers are effectivley rallying to remove the UN..

Sounds to me like the world wants a war, its the citizens holding it back.


reply posted on 28-9-2006 @ 11:39 PM by CaptainIraq
Now, Isreal vs. Middle East(Islamic) and NK vs. SK I can see happening. China vs. Taiwan and US vs. ME I can't so easily. The ME is far too divided and broken to join together and attack the US. Even if they did, they honestly wouldn't pose a massive threat. Iran would be the biggest problem in the ME, and is. Another Korean war I could easily see turning into a World War. What, with all the ties that each side has to different Asian factions. Isreal and the ME is another story. I have pondered it for a long time now and, from my point of view, it would be an isolated incident. For one, the only ones who would really get into it besides Isreal and Palestine would be us and Iran.

Now Kim Jung Il, he just pisses me off. Coward. He builds his nukes and threatens to use them if we don't give him economic aid to compensate for his sad excuse of an economy. He scares me the most out of all of the threats listed. In my opinion, he's not exactly playing with a full deck of cards, if you know what I mean; and he has nukes.

Although, I still can't see a World War happening anytime soon. If you look at before World War 2, there were obvious signs that it was going to be a World War, and many people knew it. For one, there was an extreme dictator taking over most of Europe. Second, a some US commanders knew we would get in eventually, and a few even predicted the attack on Pearl Harbor, though the higher-ups refused to listen.

[edit on 28-9-2006 by CaptainIraq]
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