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Earth To Reach Highest Temperature In 1,000,000 Years

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posted on Sep, 25 2006 @ 07:36 PM
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NASA Gadded Institute for Space Studies have made a report that states the earth is not reaching and passing through the warmest levels in the current interglacial period. Also the global temperature may be with in one degree Celsius of the maximum temperature on the past one million years. It is also being said that if further warming occurs, 2 or 3 degrees Celsius that the earth will be a very different place the what it is now. If the global temperature is kept below one degree Celsius increase then the global warming may be manageable, says James Hansen, of the Gadded Institute.
 



news.mongabay.com
"That means that further global warming of 1 degree Celsius defines a critical level. If warming is kept less than that, effects of global warming may be relatively manageable," said Hansen. "During the warmest interglacial periods the Earth was reasonably similar to today. But if further global warming reaches 2 or 3 degrees Celsius, we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know. The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about three million years ago, when sea level was estimated to have been about 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today."

Hansen said that the impact of climate change is already evident in studies that have found warmer temperatures are causing plant and animal species to migrate towards the north and south poles.

The researchers also warn that increased temperature difference between the Western and Eastern Pacific may boost the likelihood of strong El Niños, events characterized by the movement of warm surface waters in the West Pacific eastward toward South America. El Niños typically wreak weather havoc, causing severe storms in some parts of the world and devastating droughts in other regions.




Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


For those who believe that this is a real problem this report might strike some fear in your heart. For those who don't believe that this is happening, perhaps this report will just be something to ponder. Despite the possibility of the plannet becoming a very different place it was a rather nice change to hear the expert say that the warming might be manageable if the warming stays below the one degree Celsius mark. The graph on the link does show plenty of ups and downs be the overall trend is up and it is going up rather sharply.

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posted on Sep, 25 2006 @ 10:01 PM
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Im sorry but I though I do think global warming as a result of human activities is very real, and urgent.

I simply do not see how a rise of 1 degree will have any effect even closely resembling devestation. 1 degree is really nothing in the grand scheme of things the tundras and ice caps are not constantly 1 degree away from melting or even 3 degrees for that matter.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 07:02 AM
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Originally posted by Desolate Cancer

I simply do not see how a rise of 1 degree will have any effect even closely resembling devestation. 1 degree is really nothing in the grand scheme of things the tundras and ice caps are not constantly 1 degree away from melting or even 3 degrees for that matter.


Desolate,
Look at the chart on the link. It shows a pretty good graph and the resulting trend. And one degree celsuss change will afect weather patterns. How sevear the winter is for instance.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 07:18 AM
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I have seen drunks/addicts stay in denial all the way to the graveyard, so I wouldn't expect much of a change in our current way of life, until a record number of climate fatalities become apparent to even the most jaded.

I also don't expect the upper classes to make any changes for the benefit of those below them, since they have the means to relocate and keep profitting on common folks dispair.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 07:29 AM
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Originally posted by RedGolem
NASA Gadded Institute for Space Studies have made a report that states the earth is not reaching and passing through the warmest levels in the current interglacial period.


Should that read "now"?

It takes a significant rise to raise the averaged temperatures a full degree celcius, it's not a minor thing at all. Bad luck for us.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 07:37 AM
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Originally posted by Regenmacher
I have seen drunks/addicts stay in denial all the way to the graveyard, so I wouldn't expect much of a change in our current way of life, until a record number of climate fatalities become apparent to even the most jaded.

I also don't expect the upper classes to make any changes for the benefit of those below them, since they have the means to relocate and keep profitting on common folks dispair.





Regenmacher,
I can not argue with what you are saying.
The points you have made have been prooven many times in history.
I just still do hope that a way will be found to beat this. After all many problems have been solved in the past also.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 07:43 AM
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Good read.

People always downplay the effects of 1 or 2 degrees. What people dont realize is that a 2 or 3 degree change in temperature is the difference between going camping in the woods or going camping on a glacier. I'll take the woods thank ya.


apc

posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 07:44 AM
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I can't think of anyone who would deny that this is happening.

But, I'm guessing that a million years ago SUVs weren't very popular.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 08:06 AM
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Originally posted by Desolate Cancer
Im sorry but I though I do think global warming as a result of human activities is very real, and urgent.

I simply do not see how a rise of 1 degree will have any effect even closely resembling devestation. 1 degree is really nothing in the grand scheme of things the tundras and ice caps are not constantly 1 degree away from melting or even 3 degrees for that matter.


This story is coming from scientist with degrees in this type of field. I am just curious what your basing your opinion on? Do you also hold degrees in this field of study? Not being critical of your post, just asking.

Aaron



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 08:10 AM
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Does any body remember that the Vikings farmed Greenland for over 500 years then the weather changed and the majority starved to death or moved back to Iceland, Denmark, or even Newfoundland where rumors have said they became the Manadan tribe of North Dakota (speculation).
Anyways stop buying into man made global warming! The elite of this world just want an excuse to tax you for driving and the majority of you are falling for it. They want to turn pollution into a commodity to be traded for credits, but I can bet none of you have ever actually read the Koyoto Accord agreement. Then again most people who claim to be Christian have never read the bible either.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 08:28 AM
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Well can anyone say Haarp. Which started in 1993 during the Clinton Adminstration. The same ones Clinton and Gore whose now bringing attention to his Global Initiative efforts.


In April 1997, the then U.S. Secretary of Defense William Cohen publicly discussed the dangers of HAARP-like technology, saying "others are engaging even in an eco-type of terrorism whereby they can alter the climate, set off earthquakes, volcanoes remotely through the use of electromagnetic waves... So there are plenty of ingenious minds out there that are at work finding ways in which they can wreak terror upon other nations... It's real, and that's the reason why we have to intensify our efforts."




links for both haarp and clintons global initiative below.


www.clintonglobalinitiative.org...



www.crystalinks.com...



[edit on 26-9-2006 by Shar]



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 08:34 AM
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Look regardless of whether global warming is real or not, simply putting out the noxious fumes we do is not beneficial and will eventually make an impact on our lives. If its through global warming, dimming, lower oxygen levels, or some other way. So now that we have other cleaner methods at our disposal for energy production we should use them.

Also anyone read about how the Texas governor is fast-tracking a plan by the utility companies of his state to develop 18 new coal fired power plants. Thus making Texas a bigger producer of greenhouse gases, than California, New York and Florida combined. Funny thing is they plan on having them built in 3 years time. But its not all dispair several mayors from cities like Houston (already the secodn smoggiest city after LA) Dallas and dozens of other Tx cities along with Farmers/ranchers and a number of business groups obviously also the environmentalists have organized to put a hamper on the plans. Or to at least force them into using clean burning methods.

But back to the topic, I have no formal science training all I was saying was that currently I dont think that the glaciers are one degree away from melting because if they were we would all be in a much worse state than we are, and the summer months would cause much more massive glaciel run-off than we have seen.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 09:41 AM
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Excellent find.


I do have a small bone to pick though:

Hansen said a 1 degree rise defines a critical level of global warming - a lower rise means the effects would be "relatively manageable."

Key word that, "relatively."

I suspect it describes the different between seriously skrewed and totally mucked.

In any event, I vote we get those controls in place and go for seriously skrewed instead of totally mucked, and probably, extinct.







posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 10:08 AM
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Hansen's paper can be downloaded free of charge from here: www.pnas.org...

What he actually says is:-


recent warming of the WEP has brought its
temperature within 1°C of its maximum in the past million years.
There is strong evidence that the WEP SST during the penultimate
interglacial period, marine isotope stage (MIS) 5e, exceeded the
WEP SST in the Holocene by 1–2°C (30, 31). This evidence is
consistent with data in Figs. 4 and 5 and with our conclusion that
the Earth is now within 1°C of its maximum temperature in the
past million years, because recent warming has lifted the current
temperature out of the prior Holocene range.



He also acknowldeges that:


The paleoclimate SST, based on Mg content of foraminifera
shells, provides accuracy to 1°C . Thus we cannot be sure that
we have precisely aligned the paleo and modern temperature scales.


(Note: WEP = Western Equitorial Pacific)



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 10:19 AM
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Thanks for the study link essan.


What Hansen actually said to the interviewer is:



"That means that further global warming of 1 degree Celsius defines a critical level. If warming is kept less than that, effects of global warming may be relatively manageable," said Hansen.

..."During the warmest interglacial periods the Earth was reasonably similar to today. But if further global warming reaches 2 or 3 degrees Celsius, we will likely see changes that make Earth a different planet than the one we know. The last time it was that warm was in the middle Pliocene, about three million years ago, when sea level was estimated to have been about 25 meters (80 feet) higher than today."

news.mongabay.com...





FYI - quotation marks mean that the interviwer is using Hansen's own words.


Again, key word that, "relatively manageable."

I suspect it describes the different between seriously skrewed and totally mucked.

Enough with the legal quibbling.

NASA says we have a problem. Is Houston listening? Should we listen?

Should we let the elite run the show, and save themselves first? Or should we take steps to preserve the whole of human culture and society?





posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 10:37 AM
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Originally posted by Desolate Cancer

But back to the topic, I have no formal science training all I was saying was that currently I dont think that the glaciers are one degree away from melting because if they were we would all be in a much worse state than we are, and the summer months would cause much more massive glaciel run-off than we have seen.



Dude, that is 1 degree celcius, equal to approximately 33 degrees fahrenheit. Can you imagine what would happen if the average temp went up 2 or three degrees celcius???? Do the math!

www.metric-conversions.org...

I forgot to point out that 2 degrees celcius wont double the Fahrenheit number, however it is something in the realm of F= (C*1.8)+32. Either way, an average temp change of 33 degrees is the difference between water and ice. If the poles are not allowed to refreeze during the winter months, then they will continue to melt and the ocean levels will continue to rise. Not a good thing considering the bulk of population centers are coastal.

[edit on 26-9-2006 by LogansRun]



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 10:55 AM
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Any way we look at it - we're in for some serious changes.

So Why aren't our governments telling us what they plan to do about it?

Climate change is on the table in policy and board rooms, and in the oval office. Obviously, there are action plans, emergency plans, contingency plans.

Why don't we, the public, have access to this information?


.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 10:57 AM
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Red Golam,

Thanks for the heads up, I will look at the paper properly tonight or over the weekend.

Anyhow what hanson is saying is important. What I dont see him mentioning though which I find suprising is that it is proved that the Earth has actually risen by 0.6 degrees C since the industrial revolution started. As a global mean temprature.

So as he is saying we are looking at periods in history millions of years ago where tempratures where only a couple of degrees higher than now and had a massive affect on the geographical and natural look of the world. What happened in those situations though was that the increase was gradula and a natural process.

Some times in the past huge events such as supervolcanoes have Caused massive changes in the climate, however they tend to only have a limited effect on the environement, ie soot in the air blocks out sun tempratures fall etc, but the soot or particulates are quickly cleaned away, allowing the climate to heal and settle down again quickly.

What human kind is doing though is adding pollutants that are persistant and take a very long time to go. this is especially the case in response to carbon dioxide as all the natural carbon sinks are being destroyed (ie rainforests) or are at full capacity. We truly are playing like God. I havent read his paper and I will and I will post the links soon on this thread when I have time to dig them out agin about the fact that we are 0.6 degrees C hotter as a result of Human interferance.

The worries of a 2-3 rise are not science fiction they are happening around us as we watch. today in the UK Roses are Blooming its in the 70 f and Autumn equinox is like 2 days ago, I say a native bird this Am who last year I observed gone by end of August.

The Seasons are proven to be changing in Europe.

Human Intervention has been proved in Global warming.

The positive Feedback results are now starting to kick in making accurate predictions as close to a 1 yr ahead weather forcast in accuracy.

Far from being able to control climate change we are making it worse, many of the gases placed into the atmosphere are only just having an effect, so whats he saying turn of all cars, factories and carbon sources tommorrow to stop his 2 C Rise?

There is now documented proof that the US administration and Oil companies have lied and misled and changed results in displaying their information to the public!

Glaciers are melting very quickly Full Stop.

Permafrost is melting Full Stop.

Species of animal plant and fish are dying evry day because of Global warming.

People really need to wake up.

Regards

Elf.



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 10:58 AM
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Originally posted by LogansRun

Dude, that is 1 degree celcius, equal to approximately 33 degrees fahrenheit. Can you imagine what would happen if the average temp went up 2 or three degrees celcius???? Do the math!
[edit on 26-9-2006 by LogansRun]


um, you do the math, 1c is not worth 33F of temp change.

what does 1 degree do? its all about temperature zones and borders and how they trickle down into other zones.

those glaciers on the edge of a temperature zone? yep thats one. it can affect how much melt they produce a year, which affects how much fresh and/or cold water gets introtuced into the ecosystem that feeds from that water, which therefore affects floura & fauna reproduction rates as well as the temperature modification having a large chunk of ice does for the surrounding area.

This can also be seen in the theories about the gulf current stalling. more fresh water is introduced, which afects teh flow and movement of the current, which effects the heat transfer between the equator & northern portion of the hemisphere.. and so on.

sure, its not goign to affect things instantly, but it can change things rapidly.

the environment is as fragile as it is resilient. global warming is like playing a global game of jenga. you can knock only so many holes before you get a cascading failure, which i think will be the case. it won't be any one thing that tips us over, it will be many small things what amplify each other.. same reason a bad scrape can hurt a lot more than one deep cut



posted on Sep, 26 2006 @ 11:23 AM
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Here's a thread I put up awhile back that includes a link that explains the Siberian thaw. Personally, I think that a thaw of permafrost is exciting because of all the evidence of earth's past that may be revealed.

www.abovetopsecret.com...



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