War between the West and Muslim countries: what would be China's response?

REMEMBER!, I did write this topic to have another flame China, US or what so ever thread. In my opinion what I stated above is a realistic possibility, yet speculative, and therefore I'd kindly ask you to stick to the topic.

I've been thinking of this for quite a while. What would happen if war breaks out between Iran and the US. Such a war is not likely to be battled solely within the Iranian borders. To summarize, there's an ever growing discontent and anger against the West in countries such as Iran, but also in more ''Westernized'' Arabian states such as Saudi-Arabia, though their governments and/or royal families prevent their countries from becoming rogue states.

Imagine, and this is purely speculative, a war break out between Iran, being politically and or militarily supported by Venezuela, (Colombia?), and the majority of Muslim states (except Egypt, Turkey and the Westernized oil states versus the North America, Europe, Australia.

What would be China's position in such a situation. I've been discussing this with my Chinese [student] friends, they all think China will not form a threat to ''us'', Westerners. Would the Chinese government care of take out obstacles in their way to global power. Chinese are peaceful people yes, but is their government as peaceful as they pretend to be? An example of how Bush could help the Third World, and simultaneously generate US economic growth, is the Chinese way: ''Every time I visits my native Zimbabwe, there seem to be more Chinese.''

A war between the parties mentioned, would imminently lead to a world economy crash, China's biggest customer the US, but also smaller customers, would suddenly not be able to purchase as much Chinese goods as they did before. What would China's response be, in what position would they be, what exactly would there be still anything to lose? This theory rejects the idea that China needs the US and other Western countries for the reason stated above.

In what way would China be able to develop it's economy? A Chinese friend of mine told me they barely need a passport anymore for traveling from Shanghai to Moscow, whether that's true or not, we cannot turn around the fact that China's relations with Russia are tightening, both economically and militarily.

After the fall of the communist regime, Russia's economy started to grow rapidly with an annual growth of 6% (China's growth lies between the 9 and 10%). Russia and Iran both possesses large reserves of today's new gold, crude oil [and natural gas], which China, and most Western countries don't possess or only limited amounts.

An alliance between Russia and China would be a perfect opportunity for China to keep its economy running, selling Chinese products to the Russian and Iranian market in exchange for crude oil. Western countries would during such a war economically not be of interest to China anymore.

Would it not be a much better the decision for China to join an Arabian/(Russian)/Chinese alliance, rather than joining a Western one?
The Westerners would be not able to intervene, as they are busy fighting the Arabian coalition, both in the Middle East and Europe(?). China would have a perfect possibility to take over Taiwain and Japan. In addition, such a coalition would result in a shortage of crude oil in the Western world in a matter of time, and thus give them a major benefit of dominating the major reserves of crude oil and natural gas

If Iran would be supported by China and Russia, there would neither be a problem taking over Arabian oil states sympathetic to Western countries.

Probably, most of us are aware of China's rapidly expanding army, especially their navy. For what purposes would they do that? Just because they currently have the financial funds to do so, doesn't sound logic to me. Is there anyone on here who could elaborate whether China's current military (and specifically it's naval expansion) is meant for offensive or defensive purposes? Besides, China apparently does want to keep it a secret what percentage of GDP they spend on military purposes.

While the People's Republic of China officially states to have a lower defense budget than the other world powers, unofficial estimates place the total amount of spending higher than what the government claims. However, unofficial calculations about the military spending of the People's Republic of China tends to differ between organizations.

A recent RAND Corporation study states that People's Republic of China's defense spending is higher than the official number but lower than United States Department of Defense estimates. The defense spending of the People's Republic of China is estimated to be between 2.3-2.8% of China's GDP. This is 40-70% higher than official figures, but substantially lower than previous outside estimates. Chinese military spending nevertheless doubled between 1997 and 2003, nearly reaching the level of the United Kingdom and Japan, and it continued to grow with an annual rate of 10% during 2003-2005.

Source

Also, what do you think the position would be of India, Pakistan and the primarily Islamic country of Indonesia?


Edit: I did post it in the War on Terror sub section, as it is related to a possible war with Iran.



[edit on 20-9-2006 by Mdv2]

Going strictly on your thread title I can tell you that China would love a war to break out between the US and muslim countries as long as they are gauranteed the raw materials they desire.

Reason being that China also has a problem with Islam in its west and could use the opportuntiy to eliminate that problem.

Hear someone say not such a long time ago he met this guy (an ex CIA agent who, apparently, had been 'trainned' in time-travelling) that had a futuristic vision of the USA embarking on a civil war. The Chinese did not waste this massive opportunity and invaded the States.
Hope is was just simply a dream...

Guys, with all due respect, I requested to stick to the topic, not to totally different scenarios. Same applies for replying without having actually read the topic.

Thans

I also have a few friends that are Chinese nationals - and on a few occasions I have brought up the likely-hood of a direct China-U.S. confrontation (occasions are very few as the debates tend to get heated).

As far as they are concerned - they do not see it happening unless we (Americans) get directly involved in the defense of Tawain should relations break down.

As far as what would happen should the WoT spread to Iran? They feel that China would issue harsh words against the U.S. and wait patiently for shooting to stop then go in and try to snap up as many rebuilding projects as they can.

REMEMBER!, I did write this topic to have another flame China, US or what so ever thread. In my opinion what I stated above is a realistic possibility, yet speculative,

Not so speculative, maybe you should have a look at this.

news.yahoo.com...

China has more than likely already chose its side. I doubt very seriously its the US.

Originally posted by Shar
Not so speculative, maybe you should have a look at this.

news.yahoo.com...

China has more than likely already chose its side. I doubt very seriously its the US.

I didn't read anything about China in that article. While China might have visited that meeting on Cuba, suggesting they did choose a side already doesn't make sense to me. Nor would it be in China's interest to choose a side (yet).

By the way, is anyone able to answer my question about the Chinese navy?

Obviously the US does consider China to be a growing [military] threat. Even though China probably does not want a war to break out, as it is not in its financial interest, it would be the perfect timing to take control of Taiwan. In addition an alliance with Iran would enable China to take over Westernized oil states. From a strategic perspective it would be beneficial for both countries as it would cut off the oil supply to the West(ern forces), which would weaken Western forces significantly, yet ensure self sufficiency.

Summary

Concern has grown in Congress and elsewhere about China’s military
modernization. The topic is an increasing factor in discussions over future required
U.S. Navy capabilities. The issue for Congress addressed in this report is: How
should China’s military modernization be factored into decisions about U.S. Navy
programs?

Several elements of China’s military modernization have potential implications
for future required U.S. Navy capabilities. These include theater-range ballistic
missiles (TBMs), land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), anti-ship cruise missiles
(ASCMs), surface-to-air missiles (SAMs), land-based aircraft, submarines, surface
combatants, amphibious ships, naval mines, nuclear weapons, and possibly highpower
microwave (HPM) devices. China’s naval limitations or weaknesses include
capabilities for operating in waters more distant from China, joint operations, C4ISR
(command, control, communications, computers, intelligence, surveillance, and
reconnaissance), long-range surveillance and targeting systems, anti-air warfare
(AAW), antisubmarine warfare (ASW), mine countermeasures (MCM), and logistics.
Observers believe a near-term focus of China’s military modernization is to field
a force that can succeed in a short-duration conflict with Taiwan and act as an antiaccess

force to deter U.S. intervention or delay the arrival of U.S. forces, particularly
naval and air forces, in such a conflict. Some analysts speculate that China may
attain (or believe that it has attained) a capable maritime anti-access force, or
elements of it, by about 2010. Other observers believe this will happen later.
Potential broader or longer-term goals of China’s naval modernization include
asserting China’s regional military leadership and protecting China’s maritime
territorial, economic, and energy interests.

China’s naval modernization has potential implications for required U.S. Navy
capabilities in terms of preparing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait area, maintaining
U.S. Navy presence and military influence in the Western Pacific, and countering
Chinese ballistic missile submarines. Preparing for a conflict in the Taiwan Strait
area could place a premium on the following: on-station or early-arriving Navy
forces, capabilities for defeating China’s maritime anti-access forces, and capabilities
for operating in an environment that could be characterized by information warfare
and possibly electromagnetic pulse (EMP) and the use of nuclear weapons.
Certain options are available for improving U.S. Navy capabilities by 2010;
additional options, particularly in shipbuilding, can improve U.S. Navy capabilities
in subsequent years. China’s naval modernization raises potential issues for
Congress concerning the role of China in Department of Defense (DOD) and Navy
planning; the size of the Navy; the Pacific Fleet’s share of the Navy; forward
homeporting of Navy ships in the Western Pacific; the number of aircraft carriers,
submarines, and ASW-capable platforms; Navy missile defense, air-warfare, AAW,
ASW, and mine warfare programs; Navy computer network security; and EMP
hardening of Navy systems. This report will be updated as events warrant.

Source (PDF format)

[edit on 21-9-2006 by Mdv2]

China would secretly support te Muslim countries in hope of getting better economic realtions with them as well as oil

Obviously the US does consider China to be a growing [military] threat. Even though China probably does not want a war to break out, as it is not in its financial interest, it would be the perfect timing to take control of Taiwan.

I seriously doubt China would even need to take Taiwan by force... Why? Because there is no need to. With the "Pro-Independence" president at a 10% approval rating, the KMT party having full control of parliament, a recall against the president, and Mayor Ma a definate favorite in winning the next elections, Taiwan IS inching closer to China.

The Chinese officials are not stupid... What would be better? To take back a province by force or to wait it out and have them eventually reunite peacefully? Just think...

So... if you stated that it would not be in financial interests for China for a war between the West and the Middle East, any other ideas?



[edit on 21-9-2006 by k4rupt]

Originally posted by Mdv2
Imagine, and this is purely speculative, a war break out between Iran, being politically and or militarily supported by Venezuela, (Colombia?), and the majority of Muslim states (except Egypt, Turkey and the Westernized oil states versus the North America, Europe, Australia.

You are right, most of the Arab Middle East won't shed a tear seeing the Persians get taken out of the equation over there. To think Venezuela could contribute anything militarily to the situation is almost crazy. At best they would send a token force there, probably not even that.

While Russia and China won't like the US sitting atop all the major oil reserves in the middle east, they will not risk war over it yet. The more likely scenario would be that the US would make arrangements with India, China and Russia on how a post war Iran would be handled. As long as the oil flows to them, they won't rock the boat. I'm sure such arrangements would be worked out should it come to that.

You are right about the relationship between the US and China, they both need each other more than they think. China would not be able to replace the the US as a market with Russian and Iran as neither of them have the buying power to satisfy the hungry Chinese economy.

china at this point in time will not intervene if the u.s and iran got into war, but instead will watch it all happen just like the russians, after all, in their eyes its not their war, its ours,( U.S.A.). iran wants to rid themselves of u.s.a., they picked it with us , china didnt. so why should they, enter the war. the russians also will stay out of the mess between( iran vs. u.s.a.)... anyone that gets oil over there and desperately needs irans oil or their buddies oil will be involved in this war. we are currently sending ships to patrol the gulf and the sanctions will begin. iran will not let up, the price of oil will go up drastically for us americans. we will see more problems in iraq, iran and afganistan. you will see cuba enter the war.

Originally posted by littlebird
Iran will not let up, the price of oil will go up drastically for us americans. we will see more problems in iraq, iran and afganistan. you will see cuba enter the war.

The price of oil will go up for the whole world, not just America. Why would Cuba enter the war? What could they possibly gain? No pipedreams here. Each country will do what is in their own best interest. Iraq and Afganistan are basically stabilzation missions now. There will be no dramatic flare up unless Iran orders the Mahdi army and other Shiite militas to attack. Then there will be a brief upsurge while those militas are taken out in full scale military actions. All Cuba would get for that would be a very bloody nose, they will not intervene. China will do what it takes to keep their economy churning along.

Originally posted by pavil
China will do what it takes to keep their economy churning along.

And that's the crucial question. What would China do should the global economy collapse. I - it would have to find new customers, able of purchasing their products. What countries do have power? Countries that have crude oil and natural gas reserves: Russia and Iran.

The Pro Western oil states such as the United Arab Emirates (which might in this case not be the best example as they are running out of crude oil) and others do also have reserves, though if Iran goes at war China might consider them as a much better party, with which they could secure the ''weaker'' oil states of Kuwait for example --> being selfsufficient, and again weaken a western coalition.

What if they would decide to enter a Western coalition? Unlikely in my opinion. There would be no gain as most Western countries would not be able to afford a high level of Chinese import products. Both scenarios would inevitably lead to a slow down of the Chinese economy.

Interesting is the fact on what scale such a war would be fought. Should China join an Iranian/Arab coalition, North Korea would be likely to join and conscription must be reintroduced again all over the world.

What I personally find very interesting is what position India, Pakistan and Brazil will take. As stated, a growing discontent in South America could contribute to a powerful block of anti American countries close to the borders.

Currently there's already an anti-US block consisting of Venezuela, Cuba and Bolivia, yet Venezuela is believed to fund terrorist groups fighting their government in Colombia. What would the strong economic growing country of Brazil decide if they are surrounded by a block of anti American countries?

Last, the African countries, as stated in my initial post, China is taking over many African countries by supporting their governments and injecting mass amounts of investment money for social programs and economic development, in return for Chinese export products and crude oil / other raw material imports.

If it would happen, we could definitely speak of a war on global scale, much bigger than world war II.

Originally posted by Mdv2

And that's the crucial question. What would China do should the global economy collapse. I - it would have to find new customers, able of purchasing their products.

You seem to miss the main point of a major global economic collapse/recession. There will be no one that will be able to purchase China's goods, let only one resource countries such as Iran. Such a slowdown, while very hurtful to modern economies will devastate 2nd and 3rd world economies. China will not risk tipping the boat so to speak. The economies of the U.S. and Western Europe are much better markets for China than the ones you describe as possible replacements.

All China needs is guarantees of access to oil in any conflict. Long term, yes China will want to secure it's own access to oil , but not for at least another 30-60 years. It is in no position currently to do it sooner than that without a major shift in its military and economic policies.

Originally posted by Mdv2
A war between the parties mentioned, would imminently lead to a world economy crash, China's #1 customer the US, but also smaller customers, would suddenly not be able to purchase as much Chinese goods as they did before. What would China's response be, in what position would they be, what exactly would there be still anything to lose? This theory rejects the idea that China needs the US and other Western countries for the reason stated above.

The fact that the US is China's #1 customer means that China is dependent on the US, not vice versa. The retailer is dependent on the customer, not vice versa. But because you're a socialist, you are never going to understand this. Do you work at Airbust?

[edit on 29-9-2006 by Rightist]

Originally posted by Rightist

The fact that the US is China's #1 customer means that China is dependent on the US, not vice versa. The retailer is dependent on the customer, not vice versa. But because you're a socialist, you are never going to understand this. Do you work at Airbust?

You don't get it huh? If China would decide to discontinue buying US debts, the entire US game is over, the economy would collapse right away and no American would be able to continue living their luxury lives like they currently do. That's the reason why China's role is of such a great importance to the US. Without China there would be no US, times have changed my friend. In addition, the US economy is dependent on cheap Chinese products.

What did you make insinuating that I'm a socialist and would be working at Airbus? (at least that's what I think you meant by ''Airbust'') Are you just being ignorant or do you have a good reason?

Both of you make the same point but in opposite ways.

China needs the US and the US needs China.

They are joined together at the hip economically now and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. Influx of foreign capital is what primes the Chinese economic pump and America supplies a tremendous market for China. China provides the inexpensive production and goods the US economy has come to demand as well as buy much of the US debt off. One country without the other does massive damage to itself. It is a very symbiotic / synergistic relationship that has emerged between the two countries.

Originally posted by Mdv2

You don't get it huh? If China would decide to discontinue buying US debts, the entire US game is over, the economy would collapse right away and no American would be able to continue living their luxury lives like they currently do.

Remember though, China buying US debt is a two-way 10 lane interstate, not a one way dirt road.

If China decides to discontinue buying US debts, their economy gets devalued by about 25% and takes an enormous inflation hit, creating a major econmic depression in China. Remember, the reason why China buys the debt is to artificially devalue their own currency so they can continue to sell cheap goods to the West and use that massive machine of export to upgrade infrastruture.

War between China and the US means the US debt income instantly stops. There is no way China would do that until the rest of the world opens more markets. The result today would leave tens of millions of people losing their job in China.

Dictatorships simply don't make mistakes like that, no dictatorship in their right mind creates an army of pissed off jobless people angry at their government.

The other problem with China is they aren't the only country that would love to buy US debt, and implications they are simply ignore the global free market economy reality. One of the major reasons why Brazil dumped oil dependency was to create enough wealth to begin buying into the US economy with oil money, because they aren't blind, their education programs are top notch, and they are on pace to compete with India and China starting next decade.

I'm not saying the US wouldn't have problems, but the US problems would be far less severe than people think. After all, the US can assure access to goods and services globally during war, China can't.

----

Back to the original question.

The lion in the room with China and the US for a Middle East conflict isn't Iran, it is Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia supports the US, so does China. If Saudi Arabia supports Iran, so does China.

Saudi Arabia's economy is booming (and not just because of oil either), and is China's biggest trade partner in the region. China may sell military stuff to Iran and may buy oil from Iran, but China depends on Saudi Arabia for trade across the board, import and export, well beyond only military stuffs and natural resources of which China is also a big partner with Saudi Arabia.

Originally posted by darksided

Originally posted by Mdv2

You don't get it huh? If China would decide to discontinue buying US debts, the entire US game is over, the economy would collapse right away and no American would be able to continue living their luxury lives like they currently do.

Remember though, China buying US debt is a two-way 10 lane interstate, not a one way dirt road.

If China decides to discontinue buying US debts, their economy gets devalued by about 25% and takes an enormous inflation hit, creating a major econmic depression in China. Remember, the reason why China buys the debt is to artificially devalue their own currency so they can continue to sell cheap goods to the West and use that massive machine of export to upgrade infrastruture.

War between China and the US means the US debt income instantly stops. There is no way China would do that until the rest of the world opens more markets. The result today would leave tens of millions of people losing their job in China.

Dictatorships simply don't make mistakes like that, no dictatorship in their right mind creates an army of pissed off jobless people angry at their government.

The other problem with China is they aren't the only country that would love to buy US debt, and implications they are simply ignore the global free market economy reality. One of the major reasons why Brazil dumped oil dependency was to create enough wealth to begin buying into the US economy with oil money, because they aren't blind, their education programs are top notch, and they are on pace to compete with India and China starting next decade.

I'm not saying the US wouldn't have problems, but the US problems would be far less severe than people think. After all, the US can assure access to goods and services globally during war, China can't.

----

Back to the original question.

The lion in the room with China and the US for a Middle East conflict isn't Iran, it is Saudi Arabia. If Saudi Arabia supports the US, so does China. If Saudi Arabia supports Iran, so does China.

Saudi Arabia's economy is booming (and not just because of oil either), and is China's biggest trade partner in the region. China may sell military stuff to Iran and may buy oil from Iran, but China depends on Saudi Arabia for trade across the board, import and export, well beyond only military stuffs and natural resources of which China is also a big partner with Saudi Arabia.

not entirely true, let just say, without US, there is EU and the others.... not only the US, but the entire world today is filled with "made in china" stuff.
and with out chinese products, the US servies will get nothing for at least half year, and that means they will lose their jobs during this interval time, and creates economic depression. and with out tangible goods, US dollar will get down to worth nearly nothing... and the story goes on.....

and chinese ppl will probably not to turn their hatred toward there government, instead, they will probably hate the US for causing such war, and thus become even more patriotic (like how they are now united to against japanese)

but to be honest, nobody really knows what's gonna happen.

[edit on 9/30/2006 by warset]