Oil Drops from $78.40 to $62 Range per Barrel

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There was a thread aboutgas going below $3/gallon as we head to November Elections.

Yesterday, I saw medium grade for $2.95/gallon-though in my home town it is still over a dime higher in cost.

There was a report on Uk breakfast tv the other morning stating that although the oil and gas prices had fallen a lot, the household consumer gas prices may not fall for upto 9 months

Gas around here is $2.20 gl now. I am thinking it will be well below 2 dollars by months end. This is good for my area. Most people can now eat more thin once a day, and might beable to heat there homes this winter.

Election in November.

I brought this up to a friend of mine and she said it's because we have had a mild hurrican season, I said that's what THEY want you to believe.

The same thing happened here in Aruba last year. The government artificially kept the gasoline prices low in the months before the election and jacked it up after they were re-elected.

So, whom do low gas prices benefit, Democrats or Republicans? I'm confused because there are a lot of factors that led to the rapid increase in gas prices last year. Who's taking the profit hit here, just so the politicians can bamboozle the public? The oil companies? Corporte America?

What confuses me is why are the gas prices in Mexico are so stable with little variation in price, while here in the USA prices fluctuate widely. Doesn't most Mexican gasoline come from refineries north of the border.

Do petrol prices in Europe and Canada, peak and valley due to the price of crude.

Personally I see big oil using prices to manipulate public opinion and reap obscene profits all the while beating the "supply and demand" drum. I don't buy it! The oil business is as manipulative as the pharmaceutical business. We're powerless in this
Corporate Oligarchy!!

It seems that sales of gas have dropped and that is why they lowered the prices but that is how the markets are supposed to work but often do not when it concerns the oil industry. It seems political to me one way or other and the more they deny it the more ridiculous it becomes. Politicians would want to avoid a recession too in order to prevent public wrath and if they work in concert with politicians then it is just back slapping here.

One things you guys have to remember with this drop. The price per barrel is what market speculators are buying and selling it at aka futures. Some bet that the US would not have enuf oil to meet winter demand and thus "bet" that thier spot oil would be needed at high rates. WHen thier futures contracts come do say for November Oil, they will either make money if its higher than what they paid for it, or lose if oil can be purchased cheaper than thier futures price. They key workds you look for are stuff like "November delivery"

The media never reports it this way unless its CNBC or something like that.

This is how the oil companies are making thier billions. They are makign record profits because of this speculation. They can manipulate to some effect by cutting supplies which drives up the price, but you have to be carefull.

FREDT,cutting supplies drive up prices, yes. they say that the gulf of mexico is at 100% , 100% of what? cutting supplies, supplies from where. if im running at 100% of filling americas oil problem and i use a glass of oil, how long will it take to give america enough oil? america cannot feed its oil demands, we require much, much more. these numbers they use are manipulated, and put out of context. OUR SUPPLIES, meaning, the slack the U.S. cannot handle, gets baught from other countries. this slack,or cutting (supplies) from other countries drives up oil prices. now why dont they say that. they wont, cause it will scare us. so where do we get our oil from to meet these demands. other countries and when these other countries cut us off, then what? cutting supplies so to speak, gas prices will skyrocket. this is serious. we need an alternative fuel, fuel cell or something, something so we dont rely on these other nations to gang up on us and bleed us dry,causeing havic in the u.s.a.. iran is a problem, they are forming a leage of nations against the u.s.a to bleed us dry. and u can bet your bottom dollar we will go over there to stop this from happenning. gas prices will go up drastically when we go over to iran. it may take a couple of years, but in the mean time gas will rise dramatically and havic will be the u.s.a. we cannot supply that much oil to us,we use other countries. mobile , exon, chevron, they buy oil over there to take up the slack that we cannot handle. this is serious people.

Littlebird,

Yes cutting supplies drive up costs, but the barrel price being quoted is always in the futures market. Thats the whole point of my post. SO the oil you are pumping in your car was purchased at the spot price months ago

fredt , where do the barrels come from and what if we dont have enough barrels for america.

Gas is about $2.20 here in Michigan. For any of you saying it's because of elections, I agree with you. It's clearly because of elections. Don't be surprised if this is the ONLY event to occur before elections to create support for republicans..if you catch my drift..

Originally posted by DickBinBush
Don't be surprised if this is the ONLY event to occur before elections to create support for republicans..if you catch my drift..

So, explain how the accusations that the Republicans are manipulating gas prices for political reasons is going to help them in the elections. Persoanlly, I think that a rather uneventful hurricane season combined with the petroleum infrastructure coming back on line and other market forces, such as the reduced demand that usually occurs after Labor Day are the reasons why gas prices have fallen, but if someone could explain what Republicans have to gain, I might change my mind.

quote]
posted by GradyPhilpott

" . . who do low gas prices benefit, Democrats or Republicans? I'm confused because there are a lot of factors that led to the rapid increase in gas prices last year. Who's taking the profit hit here, just so the politicians can bamboozle the public? The oil companies? Corporate America?


Probably taxpayers. Don't forget the last "give-away" was the 5% corporate tax on profits returned to the US from subsidiaries abroad.

Pure Hype for Bush43 and November 7. To save his L E G A C Y.

Originally posted by GradyPhilpott

Originally posted by DickBinBush
Don't be surprised if this is the ONLY event to occur before elections to create support for republicans..if you catch my drift..

So, explain how the accusations that the Republicans are manipulating gas prices for political reasons is going to help them in the elections. Persoanlly, I think that a rather uneventful hurricane season combined with the petroleum infrastructure coming back on line and other market forces, such as the reduced demand that usually occurs after Labor Day are the reasons why gas prices have fallen, but if someone could explain what Republicans have to gain, I might change my mind.

I never said it would lead to them winning, I just simply stated my opinion that I believe they are dropping prices for that reason. You have to admit at the very least that the timing is a little coincidental though right? I say, every little bit helps. Maybe they believe this strategy will work. I don't know. I don't see how it will but then again, I'm not an elected politician.

[edit on 17-9-2006 by DickBinBush]

Originally posted by littlebird
fredt , where do the barrels come from and what if we dont have enough barrels for america.

Where?

abcnews.go.com...

Markets are a dynamic, touchy thing and you have to differentiate between the spot price, futures, and actual supply chain disruptions. Supply and demand always reign king. If there is not enough oil for the world (not only the US) prices can and will go up on thier own.

In the case of say Katrina, that hit several spots at once. The Physical disruption of the hurricane cause refineries to cease production reducing the physical supply of gas avalible hence driving prices up. However, the hurricane also caused a shutdown of actual drilling operations. That along with the concern of actual physical destruction of the actual facilites for production, refinment caused a spike in the futures market as speculators bet that the oil they were buying contracts for in the future would be worth much more when the disruptions caused by the hurricane eventualy rippled through and effected things down the road.

One other matter of sorts regarding the political demention:

Republicans get the lions share of the oil and gas industries political donations: by almost 5:1

www.opensecrets.org...

However, unless Bush releases a huge amount of the strategic petroleum reserve to flood the market and create a short term glut, market forces are by and large a bigger manipulator than any president, Republican or Dem would ever be. But in the interests of fairness how could Bush manipulate the spot price of gas?

1) Go after Iran. A shooting war in the Persian Gulf would drive prices Up not down because of the actual or even potential reduction in oil. Same as any large international crisis in an oil producing country.

2) Allow drilling off the coast of California and in Alaska. Yes that would help if lots of reserves were found but it would be a long term gain as apposed to a short on in time for mid term elections.

3) Release oil from the strategic petroleum reserve. Short term gain at best, but the reserve is still being added to which actually reduces supplies and drives up the price of oil.

4) national energy policy: More nuclear plants, more renewable sources etc would free up more oil for the markets reducing the prices, but again its a long term not a short term reduction.

5) Reduce the federal tax on gas: This could reduce the price somewhat (In California the federal and state taxes total over 30 cents) but again that would have little effect on the price of oil and in fact would have to be made up elsewhere to compensate for the lost tax revenue.

Note that option 3 or 5 have not been done at all.

So while its fun to say Bush can decide and manipulate the prices at will or for political gains is simplistic at best and difficult if not impossible in even the best scenario. Now will both sides try to take credit for the reduction. Why not?