poll - nuclear bombs

given that america definately has them, israel is alleged to have them and iran is most likely about to have them soon, who do you think is most likely to use them? please put these 3 countries in the order of -

1. most likely to use them
2. probably would use them
3. least likely to use them

1. Israel - Most likely to use
2. Iran - Probobly would use them
3. America - least likely to use them

i feel like when push comes to shove Israel will drop that baby with out a second thought, most likly urged on by the US (probobly with a US made bomb too)... Iran will soon be in a position to use them but I feel like they know its better kept as a deterrant. I couldn't see America going nuke when they have Israel who would be glad to do it for them, but once they first bomb drops you can expect everyone to hop on the nuclear bandwagon to protect their intrests. once this happens all the tinfoil hats, duct tape and bottled water in the world wont help you.

i would ask god for help, but he/she is a little predisposed at the moment on the phone with good old bushie

[edit on 9/1/2006 by bokinsmowl]

Originally posted by justyc
given that america definately has them, israel is alleged to have them and iran is most likely about to have them soon, who do you think is most likely to use them? please put these 3 countries in the order of -

1. most likely to use them
2. probably would use them
3. least likely to use them

Now I put these in order as a first strike scenario. All 3 would use them if they were attacked with a Nuke.

1) Israel - Stating some excuse, knowing good old Uncle Sam would protect them.

2) Iran - Not stupid enough to start a nuclear war - they know they would be wiped off the planet if they did.

3) The US - The US will wait to be attacked, then forget about it....

You have to judge this by historical example, not opinion or your feelings about America or Israel, or even Iran.

The US would not use nuclear weapons, not even even small tactical nukes, to prevent or destroy Iran's nuclear capability. It would not use them unless a massive non-conventional attack was used against the US. Israel would not use nukes unless threatened with a scenario that would result in their nations annihilation or if nukes were used against them. With the exception of the US use of atomic bombs in an attempt to end WWII, neither country has used a nuke in anger, and have a history of restraint when it comes to these types of weapons.

If you want to try to argue that both nations could be irrational and use them, fine thats your opinion, but thats merely opinion only and not fact. The facts illustrate that, for the last 60 years, the US and Israel have resisted the urge to escalate any situation by utilizing their nuclear arsenals. The US could have nuked the North Koreans in the Korean War, nuked the Viet Cong in the Vietnam War, and nuked the Republican Guard in the first or second Iraq War. They didn't. Same holds true for Israel, since building the Dimona reactor in the '50s, they have had ample opportunity to nuke the crap out of their neighbors. They haven't, not even during several wars.

Iran is the unknown entity. They do not have them yet, we have no history of their possession of nukes from which to formulate an opinion as to how responsible they will be once they get them.

Therefore, the list of likely use would have to be-

1) Iran
2) Israel
3) America

First Strike
------------
1.Israel
2.Iran
3.United States

I think that pakistani nukes are more likely to be set off than Isreali,
American, or Iranian nukes, since it seems like the country is about to collapse.

I fully agree with NYGDAN about Pakistan.

Most likely to use them - Iran
Probably would use them - Israel in self defense.
Least likely to use them - America

America has had them for a long time and has only used them twice - to end the war that was started against us by Japan. A look at historical data shows that Iran is most likely to be offensive with weapons, Irael to use in self defense, and America not likely to use at all.

1.) Israel
2.) Iran - If they are developing nuclear weapons.*
3.) U.S.A.

* There is no evidence that they are...

Originally posted by justyc
given that america definately has them, israel is alleged to have them and iran is most likely about to have them soon, who do you think is most likely to use them? please put these 3 countries in the order of -

1. most likely to use them
2. probably would use them
3. least likely to use them

US #1 of course, won a war with them.
Iran 2, hot-headed
Israel in retaliation.

What most don't appreciate with New Foundness is that you shouldn't hoorah! it. It draws attention. And now matter how well you sing them up, basic employment strategy dictates to blow up enemy munitions. Well placed charge=big bang. What can cause a nuclear reaction, may in turn cause one.

Don't worship these things, there one heck of a liability.

1. Iran
2. Israel
3> United States

While the United States did use the atomic bomb during WW2, I just don't see the U.S using nuclear or atomic weapons again unless deemed necessary. Of course, it can be argued that we would still be fighting Japan if we hadn't dropped to atomic bomb to end WW2.

[edit on 20-5-2007 by SpeakerofTruth]

Well assuming that by such a time Iran actually had nuclear warheads..


1. Israel/Iranian Guard

2. Iran, They, as a state would not use them unless it was in retaliation, though the
Iranian Guard (which does'nt answer to the government unless they want to) may
use them outside of a retaliatory strike.

3. The president who authorizes the use of nuclear warheads, unless it is after the
detonation of a nuke i the U.S., would be considered one of the worst presidents
and history and would have a high chance of impeachment.



On a side note, I wont be to terribly surprised if France decides to use them.

#3: United States. Don't need to use them. As has been demonstrated on a number of occaisions, we can destroy plenty well without recourse to nukes.

#2a: Israel. Ditto.

#2b: Iran. The consequences of using them would be the destruction of an entire nation. They know that.

#1: Pakistan. As stated earlier by Nygdan, a country on the brink of disintegration, and India available as a target.

[edit on 30-5-2007 by seagull]

Originally posted by justyc
given that america definately has them, israel is alleged to have them and iran is most likely about to have them soon, who do you think is most likely to use them? please put these 3 countries in the order of -

1. most likely to use them
2. probably would use them
3. least likely to use them

I believe that if I had to make a choice, given current situations and standings in the world here is what I would say:
1: Countries most likely to use a nuclear weapon would be: Pakastan or North Korea. I do not think that North Korea stopped producing Nuclear Weapons, just moved it to an different facility, and have managed to pull off a semi sucessful test. If Iran had one, I believe they would use it, especially if they were threatened.
2: Isreal, and I have no doubt that they have a few sitting around, and maybe the US in retaliation.
3: The US, England, France, and Russia would prolly be the least likely to use the nuclear weapons that they have. Russian weapons are deteriorating.

In descending order from most likely to least
Terrorists, if they can get one
India/ Pakistan war amongst each other
Israel under the guise of self preservation
U.S because their troops are threatened or some one really tick them off
North Korea because Lil’ Kim is insane
Russia most likely in a civil war
France/ UK nobody would invade France, there would be no point in taking it and the UK would wait for the US to strike first.
China I say China is the least likely to use a first strike with nukes because if they invaded somewhere they would try their best to keep the rest of the world out of the fight, using nuke is rather polarizing and would put them in a vary bad light on the world stage.

Its a tough call. Interesting question though.

History is littered with interesting anecdotes that the majority of people are unaware of regarding nuclear weapons.

Thatcher reputedly, in a conversation with Mitterand, privately threatened to nuke an Argentine air base unless the French provided self destruct codes for Exocet missiles during the Falklands War.

The South African Government - who have since dismantled their entire nuclear programme - had plans to use tactical nuclear weapons during the apartheid regime to quell possible black uprisings and invasions from neighbouring countries.

Yeltsin was a code input away from launching on the US when a weather rocket launch that had not been notified to the Russians was seen to be on a similar profile to a SLBM.

But anyway, to answer the question as the world stands at the moment.....

1. Israel - For various reasons, mostly to do with strategic numbers and the small size of the country and its location, but also to do with the Israeli's seemingly rabid reaction to threats they percieve.

2. The US - hate to say it, but its true. The US under the current administration (and possibly future Republican ones under current circumstances) is - to me at least - more likely to try and use such things as nuclear bunker busters/tactical nukes.

3. Perm any one of the remaining nuclear powers. Britain and France have both stated that they would consider the use a nuclear weapon following a severe terrorist atrocity on their shores providing a clear target presented itself. I would imagine Russia and China would do the same. India and Pakistan are in a perpetual state of bickering with each other. North Korea would use their limited weapons in self defence if invaded. Iran doesn't have any nukes as far as I am aware but I would imagine that it would defend itself if need be.