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Originally posted by Esoteric Teacher
I'm not sure if it matters, but i was curious. When crude oil is retrieved from the pockets under the ground, what is it we are putting back into the gaps?
Saudi Aramco, the national oil company of Saudi Arabia and Ghawar's operator, is currently injecting a staggering 7 million barrels of sea water per day back into Ghawar in order to prop up pressure.
Originally posted by dbates
That's just one oilfield. Sadly, since the world has an unlimited amount of oil, this means the oceans will eventually be pumped dry. Of course we can then explore the newly dried land for more oil.
Obviously, No One Knows. Hmm? Maybe It's Not So Obvious?
How much oil is out there, as yet undiscovered? I have heard two men speak on that topic. Both are well known but presently I can’t recall their names. One is “Matt” somebody, a former employee of Amoco (Std of Indiana) who worked in Saudi Arabia in the 1980s.
The other fellow wrote a book explaining his theory called “Peak Oil.” Or some similar title. Both men base their discouraging predictions on the level of oil exploration in the continental United States. The US is the “most” or "best" explored 3 million square miles on the planet.
I think they say over “300,000" exploratory wells have been drilled. Maybe more. The point is, the last major oil field in America was found in the 1940s in Texas. If there was another major oil field out there, it would already have been found.
Now, you can believe that or not. If you do, then their dire predictions take on a voice of authority. If you don’t then obviously you will not be as much concerned over when or how soon we will face the post-oil world.
For 3 decades we have had earth satellites doing the basic work in the hunt for oil. There just aren’t any more areas on the earth that meet the geology for oil that have not been explored.
Because of plate tectonics, the sea-floor is not over 80 million years old. Most oil is found in strata of earth in the 200-300 million years ago range. Therefore, it follows, there is no oil under the ocean floor. Wait up you say, what about the Gulf of Mexico? The North Sea? South China Sea? OK, OK. But those wells are being drilled in the continental shelf which is overlaid by water, rather deep water, but it is not the ocean floor.
There has not been another oil field like the Ghawar super field in Saudi Arabia since it was found in the 1930s, I believe.
Assuming there are no artificial constraints on further exploration and drilling, the consensus is that we ordinary mortals will know (post facto) when we have “peaked” in oil, by the decline in production.
Production has risen every year since Colonel Drake hit it big in Titusville, PA, in 1859. When production peaks, we’ll “know” that we have pumped half of the earth's available oil.
Although it may have taken us 150 years to reach that point - using the first half - it will take us barely 25 years to use the second half.
At that time the world’s remaining oil will be nationalized, or better, internationalized. To be contributed based on your supply, to be alloted based on your needs.
posted by StellarX
It could take 250 years to use the other half if we actively used alternative energy sources for transportation so how long it might last is very much unrelated to how long it took to use the first half if the supply is truly static.
[Edited by Don W]
And this [nationalization] is the aim of talking about peak oil! Western governments are unhappy with the fact we have ever more time for ourselves which we can at least partially allocate to discovering the criminal intent of most governments.
Conclusion: When anyone [says] you must part with [living] standards you have gained by hard work and political activism; never take their word for it as [the] rulers of the world hate the high standards of living the Western worker has achieved against [the] oppression of long dangerous working hours for nothing but a survival wage. Stellar
posted by StellarX
“ . . from what we know there is no reason to suspect oil will run out, or become very 'expensive' in the next 50 years. Not sure who your talking about here [ - M. King Hubbert - ] but even though the USA is the most 'heavily explored region on Earth' people still drill hundreds of thousands of wells a year . . It hardly makes sense to invest in drilling in the USA when there are large parts of the world which are basically unexplored.” [Edited by Don W]
“ . . the success rate of finding oil . . becomes obvious to me, there is much luck and sheer guessing in this supposed 'science' . . They still find major oil fields all round the world . . it does not make sense to talk of how many days of oil they contain unless your aim is to scare the bejesus out of the average citizen . . this is their aim [and] they have been very successful . . it will not change the fact that formerly oil poor countries are now finding oil when they were never considered to even have reserves
I am concerned but not because oil might run out soon! What bothers me most is the fact that we are still dependent on oil for transport when we could have long ago moved over to transport based on electricity!
“ . . the [petroleum industry] refuses to invest in infrastructure while the supply is so overwhelming . . even slow economic growth can result in a massive over supply and price slump. They could make money faster had everyone need peanut butter in the same quantities . . “
“ . . [satellite exploration] is based on the mistaken idea, IMO, that oil comes from organic matter and not from abiotic sources. To suggest that enough of the Earth has been explored to say that there are no more areas where we could find oil is IMO plainly false as large areas of the world has not even been touched.
Saudi Arabia still has absolutely massive reserves . . Western oil giants clearly have no business interest proving a commodity is plentiful beyond a certain time frame . . is not a sound business strategy in making [it] known just how much oil they really have . . “
If oil comes from organic matter it might be just about anywhere as we know many of out current mountain ranges are mere millions of years old. This is hardly a time for faith and belief so why not check out why you believe that when there is no reason to?
Once again assumes demand really regulates supply and the market can not be and has never been effectively manipulated. We KNOW that diamonds are not in fact very rare and that the major diamond producers in fact hoards the things by the ton just to create a sufficient scarcity so that a profit can in fact be made.
“ . . we still have a billion people who go to bed hungry (not that they have beds) every night while more water and prime land goes towards cultivating cash crops (non edible but exportable) simply so some governments can get back money they loaned to dictators who put it all in their Swiss bank accounts.
We have starving poor people because our current governmental and international policy need a certain percentage of the world’s population near enough to starvation so that they may effectively destroy the wage structure of the global community.
The western worker is not only working ever harder to support himself but also actively aiding his government (by taxes used to subsidize food production with which to destroy third world economies) in it's primary aim of driving down buying power and making the citizen ever more dependent on the government.
And how will we know when we have reached the half way mark based on production alone?
“ . . the US government and it's Western backers actively engage in manipulation of world oil supply on a truly grand scale. How will that average person who is largely ignorant of these steps ever be able to tell when a peak has been reached based solely on production?
Originally posted by donwhite
That is so. I estimated 25 years based on no cutting back on current consumption levels. I have no authority for that number, but I wanted to convey the dramatic change in rate of consumption. Then as to now.
Some select points from a recent BBC Hardtalk interview between
DR Adnan Shihab Eldin (OPEC’s Acting Secretary General and Director of the Research Division) and Stephen Sackur. Reading the full text will be most informative.
"SS - And my point is that you seem to have lost control of your ability to control the price.
DR SE - No. We have not, because we have done what it takes to influence the price and that is to ensure that there are enough supplies in the market that the buyers of the oil will find the oil to buy. In 2004 when demand grew by close to 3 million barrels a day OPEC pumped 3.5 million barrels extra oil and ensured that there was a surplus in the market in 2004. Now that surplus should normally have allowed prices to find a reasonable regime."
SS- (INTERUPTS) Well, you know how much oil is in the ground..
Dr SE - Yes, and we don't believe there is a problem for the next 30, 40 years. That's plenty long enough time for countries to look for alternatives.
SS- Is it really? 30 or 40 years. Think back to 1975. That's 30 years ago. We haven't shown any great ability to change the way we rely on fossil fuels in the last 30 years.
Dr SE - That's not 30 or 40 years to run out of oil. That's 30 or 40 years to look at alternatives. Oil will be with us much longer than that. Just like coal has been around for so many centuries. So oil is not expected to run out in 30 or 40 years, I'm just saying that the peak in production will not be reached in 30 or 40 years. That gives us another maybe 30 or 40 years.
Now at the end of the day we will not run out of the last barrel of oil - that will never happen - but oil will begin to make way for other more available energy sources that will be discovered and developed for the benefit of all of humanity. We encourage that. We have nothing to stand against it because it is in the interests of everybody. "
China plans to add 20 million cars to today’s 10 million over the next 10 years. America has over 200 million motor vehicles and it grows a few million each year. Every American has a “right” to a hand gun and a car, preferably a SUV. I was looking at a Mercury Mountaineer yesterday, V8 it said, and AWD to avoid getting stuck.
Speaking of getting stuck, we just traded our ‘03 Matrix for a ‘06 Matrix. I wanted to wait for the ‘07 but we share a summer house built on a hillside and due to deterioration of the driveway, our 2 WD ‘03 won’t pull the grade. The ‘06 AWD never kicks up a piece of gravel! I expect the ‘07 is be a new model, as the RAV4 was this year.
Well, this is a lot like the conundrum whether the US is a Christian nation - it is not - or a nation of Christians - it is. There are a lot of criminals in our government but it is not a criminal government. Look, the British Parliament of the 1770s was replete with crooks and profiteers, and our First Congress was likewise inhabited by men more interested in what they could take home than in how to advance the nation.
Anytime you have people dealing with great wealth belonging to others, you will have theft. OTOH, I believe we should make a conscious effort to minimize theft from the public treasury.
Bravo! 1848 Revisited! American unions never had social consciousness.
I have always believed that was the reason for their premature demise, but it looks to me from here that the unions of Europe which did have lots of social consciousness, have slumped as much as ours.
I think working people want to trust their leaders to do right by them, but so often, they are betrayed. Look at Clement Atlee, him a Lord.
You don’t get to be a Lord by breaking skulls and when you get bottom line, you have to bust skulls of any scab who wants to cross your picket line.
Otherwise, you are more a social club than a labor union! The Spanish Civil War may well have bee th high watermark of labor!
"A strong body makes the mind strong. As to the species of exercise, I advise the gun. While this gives moderate exercise to the body, it gives boldness, enterprise, and independence Games played with the ball, and others of that nature, are too violent for the body and stamp no character on the mind. Let your gun therefore be the constant companion of your walk."
-Encyclopedia of Thomas Jefferson, 318 (Foley, Ed., reissued 1967)
posted by StellarX
". . Some still consider the founding fathers as a merry gang of hero's but apparently all they were interested in was generally guaranteeing their own wealth, standing and independence from foreign control over their wealth; whatever freedoms that resulted in for the general public was evidently quite coincidental . . “ StellarX [Edited by Don W]
Oct 5, 2006 4:25 AM
Latest Statement from MEND (Movement for the Emancipation of the Nigerian Delta)
At about 1700 hrs today, Thursday October 4, 2006, our units dispatched to protect communities in Rivers State were attacked by 9 gunboats and one helicopter gunship belonging to the Nigerian army.
In the ensuing firefight which lasted about one and a half hours, our units captured 2 gunboats, killing all occupants, 9 soldiers. The remnant of the military assault team was beaten into a retreat and carried back many dead and seriously injured, number of which has yet to be ascertained.
Our presence in Rivers State is being beefed up by about 500 fighters which had earlier been dispatched and will be in Rivers State by nightfall. As it seems, we are being forced act ahead of our planned major strike on the Nigerian oil industry. Operators of facilities in Rivers State are advised to evacuate their staff from such locations with immediate effect. For long, we have advertised that we will no longer take hostages in attacks on oil installations. We will not go back on that pledge.
In addition, we will commence with a number of strategic attacks on targets of relevance. This will commence with effect from today and will increase in severity depending on the response from the Nigerian military.
Originally posted by cryingindian
In reading up on this topic, I learned that sea water injection is only necessary in unhealthy oil fields, or to increase production (barrels per day output).
You musn't think about wells as being huge underground caves filled with oil, (same goes for water wells). The oil is basically hanging in porous rocks, and travels through cracks and fissures in the rock to the well pipe.
The injection of sea water is only used when a field is nearing the end of it's servicable life, and happens at the perimeter of fields to increase pressure in the porous rocks.
The water pushes the oil through the rock at a faster rate, thus seemingly increasing production.
However, the salt water corrodes the infastructure quickly, plus there's a "water cut" with the oil output that needs to be seperated prior to shipment.
We don't need to replace oil in the ground with anything, rock is already there.
"LIGHT SWEET" CRUDE is just about all gone...
Refineries are having to upgrade their systems to deal with the only oil that's left, the heavier, lower quality oil, with alot more impurities than light sweet crude.
Originally posted by donwhite
Did you mean “100s OR 1000s” of exploratory wells? It seems “100s OF 1000s” is too many
Productive oil wells in America go deeper every decade. I think we’re well below 10,000 feet today in new productive wells. Whereas (I believe) Saudi Arabia wells may be mostly around 3,000 feet deep.
This is interesting. The recent discovery in the Gulf of Mexico involved drilling in deep water - excess of 10,000 feet - and the well itself was a deep well. The drilling tower itself cost nearly a billion dollars but it is useable for many years. I have said all that to say this, I believe it is possible to locate areas “more likely” to have oil as distinguished from areas where it is “less likely.”
Yes. It looks to me that currently we would be best served by nuclear powered generating plants, and hybrid cars. All electric cars seem to be too limited in range - 70 miles - and require fairly long re-charge times.
I am skeptical about capacitor technology because my old AF radar school explained that capacitors are great at storing volts but not so good at storing amps. And raw electric power is amps not volts.
As long as we - the consuming public - permit the sellers to set policy, it will remain as it is or get worse - from our perspective. Current large price fluctuations are blamed on “speculators” in the spot market. That practice represents an infringement on the “free market” concept that I’d like to try to fix. For example, prohibit the re-sale of crude oil in less that 30 days. Probably 7 days delay would work as well. Fungible? No problem. Not in this day and age of bar codes and RFID to label every barge or ship or pipeline load.
You enjoy a good rep with me SX, but I’m not sure I can accept your optimistic POV.
You’d think by now there would be a consensus on the origin of crude oil. Are you aware why that is not the case?
I do understand that. OTOH, I find it incredible that so many otherwise good men would lie about this issue of how much oil is in the Persian Gulf.
icular, I have lived most of the United States model. In general I love geology and science and people who seem to be well informed on those topics have my confidence as a given. I believe them because it sounds reasonable and is consistent with what I have learned elsewhere. I understand none of that makes it true.
Well ijust finished complaining of speculators manipulating the spot market so I cannot consistently now deny that our markets are not manipulated, can I?
Yes. That I also believe.
It’s a theory based on 2 assumptions. 1, that production will always be maximized and 2, that no oil is being held back.
Plainly, as you set it out, they will not be able to tell or know.
Thanks for you good comments StellarX.