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Tropical Storm Ernesto

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posted on Aug, 25 2006 @ 11:56 PM
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It was one year ago to the day that Katrina became a TS and now we have Ernesto. Right now, although anything can happen. Ernesto is on a track to the Gulf and could reach New Orleans on the same day Katrina did. What would the odds be if this happens.





Updating thread title per our storm coverage guidelines, and topping thread during duration of storm. Note that title may change if storm becomes a hurricane.

[edit on 28-8-2006 by Gazrok]




posted on Aug, 26 2006 @ 12:06 AM
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Originally posted by brykc14
It was one year ago to the day that Katrina became a TS and now we have Ernesto. Right now, although anything can happen. Ernesto is on a track to the Gulf and could reach New Orleans on the same day Katrina did. What would the odds be if this happens.







[edit on 26-8-2006 by brykc14]


I'd LMAO. I hate seeing anyone getting hurt, or killed, but you built below sea level come on. If you live below water, you shouldn't be suprised by flooding. 10 bucks says if it does get hit, and the levees do break, Bush will get the blame, and there will be accusations of BushCo blowing the levees up. The "usual suspects" are so predictable, I know what they're gonna say, before they know it.



posted on Aug, 26 2006 @ 12:12 AM
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Anderson Copper had a story NOLA Ready or Not ? they say they are in better shape than before Katrina, but I just dont believe that. And they say even if Ernesto doesnt hit sooner or later one will. But the big thing is they are talking about plan of starting evac now, because no place to for shelter now. So they are talking about having buses on standby to go in.



posted on Aug, 26 2006 @ 10:40 AM
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The models are moving it even closer to New Orleans, as it is now it will be an almost direct hit:




posted on Aug, 27 2006 @ 02:09 AM
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well it will have to spees up alot in order to make it by tuesday...but ya never know.



posted on Aug, 27 2006 @ 10:06 PM
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Current track has it headed right for me, hehe...."Tampa Bay"...
Of course, they never seem to pan out that way usually...which is a good thing.

Currently at 50mph while going over Cuba, but forecasted to strengthen.
They've got it hitting us on Wed, but I think they're full of it. If it comes close to us (or hits us) it'll likely be sometime Tue I imagine.

At least it doesn't have time to ramp up too much.



posted on Aug, 28 2006 @ 03:35 PM
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as of today the cone is shifting more to the east.. and of course the Keys are right in the middle of the cone..but I dont think it will hit us here..The way it looks as of the 2pm advisory is that it is going to head up the atlantic just east of Miami..but thats just MY guess.

The storm is also considerably weaker than it was yesterday too.. By the time it gets past cuba it may be a mere depression again... before it returns to water where it will regain some of its former strength. the water down here is about 84-86 degrees which is perfect for hurricanes.

bring it Ernesto...bring it baby!!!!



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 11:06 AM
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Well, still holding together after going over Cuba, and now on a more northerly track. Even the forecasters here aren't believing the models taking it towards the east coast. Their bet is more of a westerly track, going up the middle of the state.

No biggie though, even at a cat 1, it's barely stronger than some of our nastier summer thunderstorms, so not too worried about it as a TS. Still, as we learned last year, they can surprise you, and I could wake up tomorrow AM and see it as a cat 2 for all I know. Currently still a TS... The VIPIR track has it going up the middle of the state, and last year that thing was pretty damn accurate....



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 11:10 AM
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reporting from Key Largo

we just got hit with the first bands about an hour ago(11 am est)...it was pretty quick.
heavy rain for about 15 minutes and wind up to about 20. with gusts up to about 30-35 maybe.
It looks like another band is approaching probably in the next 12-30 mins.
Ill update after the next band passes.


Also, NOAA has an animated Sat IR3 image tracking the storm. Click NOAA link

instead of using another post I figured I'd just update on this one.

The second band is now passing through and there seems to be some intensifying near the core at the moment(from what Ive seen on NOAA). Seems to be more of the same. Local Radio has said that we should expect between 10-15 inches of rain between today and wed. No word on any signifigant storm surge as of yet.
[edit on 8/29/2006 by TONE23]

[edit on 8/29/2006 by TONE23]

[edit on 8/29/2006 by TONE23]



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 12:20 PM
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Pics from the backyard approximately 12:45PM
reference of water level in canal


View of the SouthEast skies


SouthWest skies


not sure what I'll be able to capture during the height of the storm since it will probably be making landfall late tonight.



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 12:27 PM
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lol...no blue in the sky here.. as the second band has nnow completed its rounds. Uniform gray here with darker patches mingling

wind and rain have subsided again... next band due any time now. kinda like contractions...lol

looking at NOAA it looks as though the worst of it hasnt even begun to present itself. The bands will be increasing in intensitiy and frequency as the afternoon progresses.



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 12:54 PM
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There's still some debate where the exactly the center of Ernesto is,
since it's a weak storm and recon only has so many dropsondes.

200 PM EDT estimated position at 23.9 N, 79.7 W.
Movement toward the northwest near 13 mph.
Maximum sustained windsis 45 mph.
Minimum central pressure is 1008 mb.


Buoy data here

[edit on 29-8-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 02:52 PM
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Looks more like the center is here (blue dot)...just from a visual cue...
Certainly looks to be gaining steam...




posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 03:05 PM
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well while Ernesto decides how big and strong he wants to be, I'm going to go take a nap, the "real action" isn't supposed to start till after 9-10pm i think.

so far, winds 5-10mph with occasional gusts up to 20 or so mph. very light rain.



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 03:14 PM
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Most recent sat loop I could find. I quickly drew in the perceived center, and where it LOOKS like it will go, with the predicted track in yellow/green....





[edit on 29-8-2006 by Gazrok]



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 03:26 PM
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Originally posted by Gazrok
Looks more like the center is here (blue dot)...just from a visual cue...


Here's the latest recon data that's plotted: Recon plots

It's in range of radar now and easy to see: Current Radar Loop

03 GMT 08/29/06 21.7N 77.8W 40 1007 Tropical Storm
09 GMT 08/29/06 22.6N 78.9W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
15 GMT 08/29/06 23.3N 79.5W 45 1005 Tropical Storm
18 GMT 08/29/06 23.9N 79.7W 45 1008 Tropical Storm


AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
231 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

.DISCUSSION...AT 2 PM, TPC HAS THE CENTER OF T.S. ERNESTO ABOUT
135 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MIAMI MOVING NORTHWEST AT 13 MPH.
WITH EXPECTED MOVEMENT CONTINUING NORTHWEST, THE STORM SHOULD
REACH THE UPPER KEYS AROUND 8 PM WITH SOME POSSIBLE SLIGHT
INTENSIFICATION BEFORE REACHING THE MAINLAND. THE FLOOD WATCH
LOOKS REAL GOOD AT THIS TIME AND HEAVY RAINS IN SQUALLS (TO
TROPICAL STORM FORCE) HAVE ALREADY MOVED AND WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
THROUGH SOUTH FLORIDA.


FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
443 PM EDT TUE AUG 29 2006

* TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST
FLORIDA TONIGHT AND MOVE NORTH ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS COULD POTENTIALLY BE BETWEEN 5
TO 10 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF UP TO 15 INCHES
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY EVENING TO THE EAST AND ALONG THE TRACK
OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO.


NWS Miami



Tornado Watch #758

[edit on 29-8-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 03:59 PM
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Yep, easy to see now...great visuals there, and surely not a weakening storm.



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 04:14 PM
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we just got through the next big rain band. There was lightning and thunder with this one which is the first of the day.. damn that core looks like its coming right to my house. Maybe I should invite it in for dinner..lol



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 04:27 PM
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Originally posted by Gazrok
Yep, easy to see now...great visuals there, and surely not a weakening storm.


Ernie is flatlining...


Die Ernie Die!

1500 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

2100 UTC TUE AUG 29 2006
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.

www.nhc.noaa.gov...



posted on Aug, 29 2006 @ 08:31 PM
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Seems to be now...yep.
From the time of the radar pic, it had a nice spiral to it though, but that didn't last long once over some more land....

Will just mean driving through rain and a little wind tomorrow...yay, fun....



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