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Exploring emotional reactions to peak oil
I’m a psychologist, I’m not a geologist, financial expert, political analyst or economist.
I watched myself go through a wide range of emotions. I went through periods of shifting denial, and an attempt to find believable critics. I would work diligently on a permaculture project, and watch my spending carefully, then “forget” and go out to dinner or another unnecessary expense. I’d feel hopeful and elated, depressed and worried, busy and determined, overwhelmed and frozen. All the while, the stock market continued to ’soar’ and everything looked ‘normal’ in the culture around me.
Are you ‘coping’ or ‘freaking out’ about Peak Oil?
“I started getting really mad. Furious. It was like, “I just got through school and now I have to listen to this? Why did I waste my time? What am I suppose to do now, crawl up and die?”
First I was really pissed at the people talking about it, like they just made it up to scare people. Then I got pissed at the people who refused to believe it. Like my parents. I couldn’t bring it up without screaming at them. Then I got rip-*hit at the government for doing nothing. It was like the whole culture was letting me down.”
Matt Savinar, Jim Kunstler and the Psychology of Peak Oil
Bob finds out about Peak Oil in all of its grimness -> Now Bob can’t socialize/network with his coworkers as smoothly and effectively as before because all they talk about is stuff like their Mcmansions, their SUVs, their wives’ boob jobs, their kid’s IPODs, etc. -> Bob is now a less well integrated and effective member of his team -> Bob’s team is now not as effective as before because not everybody is on the same page -> Bob suffers
...For most there is no “advantage” to believing in the coming of peak oil, so the brain deletes the info.
Originally posted by mbkennel
This is factually incorrect. There are new discoveries but the rate and size of fundamentally new discoveries have been declining substantially even as consumption increased.
BP's 1-billion-barrel Thunder Horse (previously "Crazy Horse") field, the largest single field ever discovered in the Gulf of Mexico, which came online in January 2005,
There is a distinction between "reserves" and discoveries not fully appreciated.
An oil field, when discovered, is not officially booked as "reserves", at least according to accoutning standards of Western oil companies, until sufficient drilling and characterization has been done to ensure capability for production. This is intentionally conservative for financial reasons.
"reserves" go up frequently because oil companies drill new wells in existing oil fields, where they knew they already had oil, enough for near-term production so that they can officially call it "proven" or "probable" reserves in the technical standards.
This is how 'reserves' appear to have been growing easily but when it is done correctly, by backdating reserve growth in existing fields to original discovery of that field, a totally different picture comes out. True oil discovery from scratch peaked approximately in 1960's.
The reserves from OPEC members is a made up figure. They once doubled reserves at a stroke of their pen---this because production quotas were determined by their reserves, so magically everybodies reserves just doubled.
I.e. the numbers are fiction, because there has been no independent verification of actual production and especially total reservoir quality.
The actual state of the oil reserves is literally a classified state secret in Saudi Arabia.
What is happening is that consumption of oil is resulting in declines in production in the largest fields which is not at all being offset by new discoveries.
North Sea oil was pumped heavily in the 80's ,
declined in the early 90's because of lower demand (recession), increased,
and is now declining again but this time, DESPITE, much higher prices. That is the result of physical depletion.
Over the last few years the oil price has tripled, and yet North Sea oil production is declining. Why?
The oil companies would love to be minting money at these prices, but they can't. Oil production is fundamentally limited by depletion and geology everywhere on the planet.
The previous post is an example of the "alternative" denial of Peak Oil----not the consumerist one that is a know nothing---but the one that imagines there is a grand conspiracy to keep all this dirt cheap oil out of our tanks.
Originally posted by Apoplexy123
Well, well, ahh well. I need not copy and paste facts from web pages, as you all seem to be pretty good at.
You do understand that putting ones view across dosen't make it any more truthful than the others argument.
StellarX you can quote every line of Regenmacher's posts, but that only shows the defensivness of those aginst the argument all together.
I'm not going to say that Oil Peak is happening as we speak, though i believe it is, but I find it hard to comprehend that you honestly feel you are not directly threatend by the Oil Peak "Senario".
The thing is my friend, even if oil reserves last another 150 years, you're still going to have a problem in 150 years. So if not you, maybe your great grandchildren are going to be in a dire state.
They say the primary objective for the Human species is to shed our DNA, and make sure that they are going to be safe and healthy when we die.
We need to look out for the future, OIL IS NOT RENEWABLE
...do you understand that. It does not matter what facts you have to make yourself feel better about the situation.
We are on a collision course with chaos.
We pump more and more oil every year. Populations get bigger and bigger. Our dependencey on oil becomes greater and greater. Graphs, Statistics and Quotes are not facts that make any difference in the long run.
I like the way you say- There are plenty of new discoveries ( any amount of research will indicate that) and world reserves have been consistently growing for decades without much effort. -
You do understand, that by growing, that actualy means were tapping more than before, it isn't actualy oil growing under the surface of the earths crust.
So in any case, that does'nt make me feel any more confident that we have an abundent amount of oil. Sure reserves are seen as what we are actualy drilling, but we rely on the discovery of new fields for the long term, and the long term is waht I'm talking about here.
It's possible there are big oil fields that the big oil companies are not tapping for the very reason of - demand vs price - , and they will wait till much later to rape it clean of anything that resembles black liquid.
But what worries me is when you have acclaimed geologists and "oil experts" getting excited about signs of oil on mars, and the idea of going to Mars to consider suitability for oil drilling....
Is that an indicator of the Kübler-Ross model: Five Stages of Grief ...the 6th one, HOPE.