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Originally posted by DigitalGrl
well it has something to do with a sale in germany. but with all the talk that is going on, and people pointing to signs of something bad happening, walmart dropping in profit could be seen as one. im no economist though, or wallstreet junkie, so i really have no clue
Originally posted by lardo5150
I was under the impression that we are in a state of "recession"?
with high gas prices and such, this can cause a company to lose profit because consumers are not traveling or venturing out that much.
Originally posted by lardo5150
I was under the impression that we are in a state of "recession"?
with high gas prices and such, this can cause a company to lose profit because consumers are not traveling or venturing out that much.
In contrast to popular belief, a recession is not correctly defined as a drop in a country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more successive quarters. Rather, it is a period of simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as output, income, employment and sales[1]. In fact, the 2001 U.S. recession did not see two successive quarterly declines in real GDP.
en.wikipedia.org...-0
Originally posted by Number23
America couldn't be further from a recession/
Originally posted by XphilesPhan
Originally posted by Number23
America couldn't be further from a recession/
Actually Im afraid it is and all the numbers and accounting records in the world will not convince me otherwise and here is why.....
[edit on 15-8-2006 by XphilesPhan]
Originally posted by Number23
Originally posted by lardo5150
I was under the impression that we are in a state of "recession"?
with high gas prices and such, this can cause a company to lose profit because consumers are not traveling or venturing out that much.
In contrast to popular belief, a recession is not correctly defined as a drop in a country’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for two or more successive quarters. Rather, it is a period of simultaneous declines in coincident measures of overall economic activity such as output, income, employment and sales[1]. In fact, the 2001 U.S. recession did not see two successive quarterly declines in real GDP.
en.wikipedia.org...-0
America couldn't be further from a recession, since we've had more than six straight years of economic expansion. Q1 was 5.8% (!) and Q2 came in at 2.5%. What! GROWTH IS SLOWING?!!!
Sustained 6% growth for an industrial economy is inflationary and unsustainable, so a lower Q2 number was good. Look for the Q2 figures to revised to upward when the final numbers come out (my guess: 2.9%). AND Q3 will tell the tale of the tape. If Q3 is around 3% then all is well, if it comes in closer to 2% than a mild recession might be in the cards. Higher fuel prices are a drag on growth, it's just hard to say right now how much a drag it will be.
However June retail sales came in above expectations and the latest wholesale prices number were way below expectations, greatly easing inflation fears. That's why the DOW was up 132 today. It also means the Fed won't raise rates at their next meeting.
If there is a recession (I personally doubt it) you can blame Berneke and the Fed. That last several interest rate hikes were completely unnecessary and harm growth.
Originally posted by behindthescenes
'
Don't be so cavalier, Number23.
In fact, many very bright financial minds feel we're on the precipise of a recession.
First, I believe GDP growth last quarter of 2.5%. I think 2.2% was due to the housing industry. We all know that housing is undergowing a contraction, or at least a slowdown. So assume housing drops to zero, that means our GDP, theorhetically, can drop to .3% -- very close to recession (meaning GDP flattens or actually reverses).
So with such a slight margin of .3%, it wouldn't take much else to tip the scale to the negative.
That being said, perhaps the biggest indicator of a coming recession is our inverted yield curve. Basically an inverted yield is when the return on a 10-year or more treasury rate is actually less than short-term treasury rate returns (short-term generally defined as 2 years or less).
Common investing sense dictates that the longer you loan someone your money, the more you should see a return. For example, if I give the government $1,000 for 30 years, I should get a heaftier return for that money than if I loaned the same amount for only say 2 years.
But throughout our economic history there have been instances where the opposite occurred, i.e. the inverted yield curve. And each and every time they have occurred, we've slumped into recessions (anyone remember the 2-month inverted yield just as the tech bubble burst during 2000?).
We've been in that state for the past six months. So by that dictate alone, I feel recession is upon us.
Originally posted by behindthescenes
I haven't checked this week. So the curve is flattening? Probably due to the Fed pausing on the rate hike.
That being said, the housing start numbers were bitter poor today. This only feeds my speculation that the housing bubble has finally popped. That's not to say that every market in the U.S. will feel the same pain. The levels of declining prices, pestering oversupplies and cooling demand will be proportional to just how hot a particular market was during the boom times.
DALLAS (Reuters) - Inflation is still the greatest risk to the United States economy, and policy-makers will not hesitate to raise interest rates again if incoming data suggests that is necessary, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher said on Wednesday.
...
He said U.S. gross domestic product growth for the second quarter was likely to be revised closer to 3 percent from its initial print of 2.5 percent, and third-quarter growth could be similar.
(Number23: JUST LIKE I SAID)
news.yahoo.com...