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The Terrorist Threat Risk Is Trivial

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df1

posted on Aug, 12 2006 @ 02:06 PM
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Forget about terrorism, the risk of a someone on US soil being killed by a terrorist is extemely low in comparison to the risks that you face on a daily basis. The author compares the risk of death numbers for a variety of events to death by terrorism. Some may find these numbers quite surprising.
 



www.reason.com
Yesterday, British authorities broke up an alleged terror plot to blow up as many as ten commercial airliners as they flew to the United States. In response, the Department of Homeland Security upped the alert level on commercial flights from Britain to "red" and boosted the alert to "orange" for all other flights. In a completely unscientific poll, AOL asked subscribers: "Are you changing your travel plans because of the raised threat level?" At mid-afternoon about a quarter of the respondents had said yes. Such polls do reflect the kinds of anxieties terrorist attacks, even those that have been stymied, provoke in the public.

But how afraid should Americans be of terrorist attacks? Not very, as some quick comparisons with other risks that we regularly run in our daily lives indicate. Your odds of dying of a specific cause in any year are calculated by dividing that year's population by the number of deaths by that cause in that year. Your lifetime odds of dying of a particular cause are calculated by dividing the one-year odds by the life expectancy of a person born in that year. For example, in 2003 about 45,000 Americans died in motor accidents out of population of 291,000,000. So, according to the National Safety Council this means your one-year odds of dying in a car accident is about one out of 6500. Therefore your lifetime probability (6500 ÷ 78 years life expectancy) of dying in a motor accident are about one in 83.


Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


For such a trival risk it really seems pretty stupid to be putting all of this time, effort and money into the "war on terror". The government could put a free protective helmet on every car driver/passenger in america for a lot less money and save more lives. Americans are being sold a crock of manure by a fear mongering government.

[edit on 12-8-2006 by df1]




posted on Aug, 13 2006 @ 10:06 PM
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Very true. especially when you consider this overkill in security wont matter if terrorists really wanna do something.

Hell, more people are killed by medical mishaps every year.


apc

posted on Aug, 13 2006 @ 10:30 PM
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heh... "Noones getting attacked here so it must not be a real problem!" I suggest taking a trip to the other side of the world... watch the people go boom... yeah... not a real problem.

You see... oceans make great moats. It isn't easy to organize attacks here. Once a group gets here, they are immediately vulnerable to our defenses. I'm not saying I believe there have been as many local threats as we have been told, but... just because people aren't strapping explosives to their chests and blowing up crowds of innocents here in the US doesn't mean they aren't doing it everywhere else. Because apparently, they are. And they would just loooove to do it here. Good idea to try and prevent that, hmmm?



posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 02:01 AM
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Originally posted by apc
Good idea to try and prevent that, hmmm?


But at what cost? Should we go ahead and allow the Government to take away all of our rights, to insure that we're going to be protected from terrorists? How much are you willing to allow the Government to dictate what you do, think, and say?

TheBorg

[Edited for grammatical hogwash.]

[edit on 14-8-2006 by TheBorg]


apc

posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 07:07 AM
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Im still waiting for a legitimate list of just what rights we have lost.

Well... maybe...

1. We can't make private phone calls to known terror suspects.

2. We may have our Internet communications monitored if we transmit to known terror suspects.

3. Uhm... we... can't have nail clippers on airliners.

That's the best Ive got so far...

I can still bash Bush all I want. I can still say our current administration is full of morons. Sure... Homeland Security is still a little dumb, but theyre new... they'll figure it out eventually. People may have been harassed over some pretty stupid stuff, but to my knowledge noone's been jailed over anything illegitimate.

We can still do, think, and say whatever we please. Anything that isn't kosher now wasn't kosher ten years ago. We couldn't threaten to blow stuff up then, either. We couldn't threaten to kill the President then, either. About the only thing you can't do anymore is have a tan, drive around with an upside down American flag in your window, and expect to not take any heat for it.


df1

posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 10:36 AM
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Originally posted by apc
Im still waiting for a legitimate list of just what rights we have lost.

ATS has a thread on that subject as I recall, it would seem that the best place for discussion about or to wait for a response on "what rights we have lost" would be on that thread.

Now if you want to discuss how trivial the odds are of dying in a terror attack this is the correct thread. The issue is that the government has been and is spending countless billions of dollars to protect us from a relatively minor threat. Additionally the goverment is fear mongering to sell the american people the lie that terrorists are a grave threat to amerians. The taking of one cent or one right, no matter how minor, is not justified based on threat risk posed by terrorists.


apc

posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 11:14 AM
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Well, the argument, as you just stated, seems to be that the threat is nowhere near great enough to justify spending "one cent" or any legislation to defend against it. Appears to tie directly into what rights we may have "lost".

While I agree the threat is not as severe as it is being made out to be, I find it hardly a wise position to think there is no danger at all. People can rant all they want about conspiracy theories and imagined enemies, but the evidence and facts shows us that we are a target. Our citizens are targeted abroad. Our installations and embassies around the world come under fire. Whether this is because of a long standing hatred, or our own actions and their consequences is irrelevant. All that matters is that there are groups of people who wish us harm. There is no denying that. There is no sugar coating that. There is certainly no justification to ignore it. Ignore a threat, no matter how small, and death is right around the corner.


df1

posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 12:22 PM
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Originally posted by apc
the evidence and facts shows us that we are a target.

Hogwash. Our borders are so porous that terrorists could march through in military uniforms accompanied by a marching band without being noticed by our border patrol. Cargo ships could enter US ports laden with fighter aircraft, rockets and nuclear weapons and we would never know it because the US does not inspect incoming cargo. If the US were a target the US would have already been hit by an attack, because we have done absolutely nothing to protect our borders. Obviously we are not a terrorist target of any consequence.



Our installations and embassies around the world come under fire.

Our foreign facilities come under fire because they are used by the US government to support undemocratically elected governments on the people of other countries via both economic and military means. So it is certainly relevant why the US is disliked. All we have to do is stop imposing our will on these other countries and protect our borders to reduce an already trivial threat risk even further. This would not only be more effective at protecting american lives, it would cost dramatically less than the middle east crusades now being conducted by US government.



Ignore a threat, no matter how small, and death is right around the corner.

You can choose to let every trivial fear rule your life. I will not let it rule my life.


[edit on 14-8-2006 by df1]


apc

posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 12:44 PM
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Thank you for proving my points...

Those being:

A. We are a target.

B. Why we are a target is irrelevant.

You can rant about all the other problems with our government if you wish, but it will not disprove the fact that there are other entities in this world that wish us harm. You are shifting the basis of your argument from "no, noone wishes us harm" to "it's our own fault others wish us harm". Don't you see the flaw in this?


df1

posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 01:17 PM
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Originally posted by apc
Don't you see the flaw in this?

Yep I do. Imho you are in the wrong thread, typing about the wrong topic. The only ranting going on is yours.

The risk to american lives from terrorists is trivial. US military spending to combat this risk is grossly disproporate to the risk posed by this trivial threat. American lives would be better protected were these dollars spent on protecting US borders instead of the occupying middle eastern countries. Show me the flaw in the preceding 3 sentences.

[edit on 14-8-2006 by df1]


apc

posted on Aug, 14 2006 @ 04:08 PM
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If there's nothing to protect against, then why bother with the border?

Your flaw is your contradiction. You say there is no threat (or that it is "trivial"), then you say we must protect ourselves from other potential terror threats. So which one is it?

And yes, you are ranting. You open stating that the entire threat is trivial. Now you are saying that it's just our actions in the ME that are not needed, but there is indeed a threat. If you wanted to start a thread about how there aren't any terrorists out there that want to hurt us, then why dont you stick with that? If you wanted to start a thread about how our battles abroad are pointless, then why didn't you?



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