Originally posted by spinstopshere
I think this is a smart strategy since he only lost by 8,000 votes and many independents back him. MA is 44% independent giving him a strong chance at
Except he's in Connecticut, and not Massachusetts, and his support came from blue collar Democrats in the cities, instead of wealthy independent
liberals in the suburbs. These blue collar Democrats vote based primarily on loyalty.
And now will they be loyal to Lieberman, or the Democratic Party?
So, Lieberman will eventually lose blue collar workers from the city as well.
Now, Connecticut is known for having moderate Democrats and liberal Republicans. Less important than the R or the D, is that the candidate be left of
Right now they're polling at 40% for Lieberman. 40% for Lamont, and 12% for the Republican guy - nobody knows his name. As time ticks away,
Lieberman's support drops, while Lamont's support rises. Lieberman will probably carry conservative Litchfield County, and a great deal of the
Jewish voters in Fairfield, he'll lose in every other county.
It will be a tough run for Lieberman, who now loses his entire GOTV army, groundwork and support from liberal interest groups and unions. He has to
hire a new campaign staff, new footsoldiers, and new funderaisers.
He has to do so completely within the Democratic side of the fence, because otherwise he'll be percieved as becoming Republican, which loses him the
voters he does have, and at least half of the Indie voters currently up for grabs.
But, the problem is that very few Democratic consultants will work for him, because they'll be blacklisted by the DNC. And, Lieberman can't accept
ANY help from the GOP, because Connecticut is such a heavily Liberal state.
Plus, he spent 12 million of his own campaign money, as opposed to Lamont's 4 million. His Democratic donors just evaporated and went to Lamont. His
endorsements just went to Lamont. His big name Senate and congressional supporters just went to Lamont.
Lamont has access to unlimited funds now. Lieberman is cash strapped.
Lieberman just became the babe, abandoned in the woods.
It'll be bloody, and he'll fight hard, but eventually, he will lose.
And the damndest part about it, is he would have won if he had just proclaimed - early in the campaign - that he would abide by the wishes of the
voters, and NOT run as independent. I mean, that's where the ground swell of voters came from.
It was closer than he ever believed. Easily, he lost 30,000 voters when he threatened his Independent bid. Smokin Joe just didn't have faith that his
own constituency "really" liked him.