posted on Jul, 26 2006 @ 09:39 PM
Just a minor amendment to your post Matt, CEP is Circular Error Probable. Your description is good though. The hit (kill) itself comes down to what is
called weaponeering, which involves fusing, delivery angle, air density, topography, armour, target movement, frag pattern etc. I've seen GBU-12s
smack into revetted tanks well within a couple of metres of the tank, detonate, and the tanks not be affected at all. There are a few different tools
used to predict Pk (probability of kill) which is more important than CEP for precision guided munitions (most will land in the bucket these days bar
failure). CEP is more from the days of dumb bombs. LGBs, if there is no failure, will land very close to where the laser is pointing. GPS munitions
are less accurate, but with recent upgrades are getting better, close enough to increase the Pk anyway.
Historically, I'd expect somewhere in the order of 85 - 90% of launched PGMs to hit where they are supposed (hit, not necessarily kill as described
above). Failures are usually due pilot incompetance, targeting pod failure, or aborted attacks due to collateral concerns post launch. And you are
right, you only ever see the hits. Misses aren't the message most militaries want to send!