posted on Aug, 13 2006 @ 03:38 AM
Originally posted by apc
hehehe development could change a lot of things
And I'd say 30 years ago!
I said 5 because LiIon batteries for laptops have been around quite a while now.
Battery technology has been very slow to catch up with our IT and
I'll stop after this post because I'm getting into too many whatifs and maybes, but I like to do it, I just can't help meself.
NEways, here is a rough sketch of how I think the transportation market will look like in 15 years. (The Medium Term)
EVs will have a range of roughly 400 miles by this time with unparelleled performance and proliferating faster then SUVs did in the 90s. They will
have captured a 15% foothold in the market by this time and will be growing in near double and in some regions triple digits as costs of batteries
come soaring down as their capacity rises towards the limit allowed by known
physics. This transition will go semi-smoothly with various
international tension flaming and cooling over a long period of time(sending Oil oscillating in the process). The more unpredicable the Oil markets
became, the faster people started to switch over to alternatives like Mass Transit, Hybrid Flexi-fuel and Man-powered transportation methods. A lot of
experimental hits and misses will happen during this time, which will remind a lot of old timers of the years leading up to the dot-com boom.
The politics at this time will be a given for all. Dependance on Petrol, is dependance on Tyranny and Dictatorships in oil rich foreign nations and
Environmental degredation in western nation from shale exploration will force the markets hand by this time.
We are already seeing the first effects now with all the new ideas and potential innovations being bandied about now. Many will falter and fail if
history is any reliable guide, but I can't wait to see who comes out on top. Let's just say this time around, my money is not on the Oil
Industry(the holdovers, not the Energy Companies that try to make a buck wherever possible now).
The Darkhorse in all this is whether Clean Coal can live up to the hype or not. Can it really deliver what it promises, especially with innovations in
Bioremediation of coal exhaust via
Lot's of speculative ideas abound.