Where are all those big hurricanes?

Ok, as soon as we hit last spring, all of us saw how the TV was buzzing with the latest hurricane predictions for the season.

here is a snippet from the NOAA to refresh your memory:



and here is the prediction we were given in may as well.....


i remember how sensationalized this was for us in the united states. everyone from pat robertson(not that i give a rats what he says) to the nightly news was saying that we should all prepare for a really dangerous season..and so far, not so much has been going on for us here.

now i dont mean to make this thread into something that is condecending, and i do realize that the hurricane season does peak in august...however, if we get 10 hurricanes, with up to 6 that are cat 3 or higher in the period of time between august and october that would be very wierd, just as the 3 that hit last year were.

so i guess my questions are:

A. do you think that this whole hurricane thing was unduely sensationalized?

B. do you think that the season will live up to the predictions that were given?

C. do you think that america will be hit hard at all by any of the hurricanes as bad as we were last season?

D. or do you think that the predictions actually mislead us as to how bad it really is going to get, and we should expect something even worse than what we saw last year?


as for my take, i think that it was sensationalized, and while im not a person that has the gift of being able to predict the future, i do think we may get something, but i think it isnt going to be as bad as people have said....but i do acknowledge that i dont have a degree in meteorology im just a weather lover

Cheerio!
Digitalgrl

Well there should have already been at least one major storm already if we were going to at least have what they were predicting us to have, But the season is not yet at it's peak so we may yet see some action given the recent Tsunami i would say the chances are good for a major storm soon Good Post BTW

Yea i know there is a peak coming, but as i mentioned in my previous post, that is almost what makes my point about it being sensationalized because as you also suggested for us to get up to the number that they were predicting within august-october would be really freaky.

thanks for your input! and while the topic was my idea, i first mentioned it in a u2u convo with dgtempe, and she gave me the nudge to make it a thread, so partial credit goes to her.

Cheerio!
Digitalgrl

[edit on 10/01/2004 by DigitalGrl]

the part about the predictions being sensationalized I agree with totally for us to meet the amount of storms that were predicted would be sheer pandemonium on our beaches IMHO.

I work for the "New Orleans Information Hotline" which was the first of it's kind put into place for natural catastrophies.
I am constantly keeping my eye on the near future. Though there have not been really big threats, doesn't mean we are out of the wood's by no means!!
With the aftermath of Katrina and Rita, we are still getting cries for help and question's like "Do you think the Levee's will hold if I go back home?" and the major one's like "Can you please have some one tear down my home, for we are not going back". To me this is a very sad but true situation every day I go to work. There has been as much done as possible as far as it goes for getting ready for this season, but those folk's are still picking up the piece's from the last season. They are scared, untrusting and very jittery over the whole thought of this season bringing in worst storm's than last.
I pray that the whole thing is "Sensationalized" but for me, I have to be prepared for the worst outcome of the worst case scenario's , if it does show up late at our door step, atleast they have a plan of action in place.
there is too much time left in this seasn to make an accurate prediction on my part, but I hope that the meteorologist's and hurricane specialist are wrong for the people's sake, for some of them are still there and still rebuilding with the mindset of this happening all over again.
BTW, this is a very good thread, hope you get a lot of replies for the "Better" case scenario's ofthis year's Hurricane season,Thank's for letting me vent.

Allred,

no problem, your venting brought up a good point. we arent out of the woods yet. im not saying that there wont be ANY bad storms, what me and sential were getting at was that the weather channels sensationalize these things..and that we dont think their predictions will hold up.


for example, tonight there was a storm supposed to be hitting rockford illinois where i live. so at around 11am there was a storm watch on the TV. that is prefectly reasonable. however, by lunch time there were 4 banners on my TV. one with the little picture of the state in the corner, on top of that there were two color coded messages stating heat advidory and storm watch, and then a huge blue strip at the bottom of the screen scrolling with text saying that there was a storm watch in effect for specific areas until 10 pm. and on top of that.... ALL FREAKING DAY the local news channels kept breaking into my tv shows saying that there was a storm watch in effect. i mean come on it is JUST A WATCH! and it was until 10pm!!! it used to be that you would have one little thing on the screen saying that there is a storm watch and then when it became a warning you would get the scroll and the occassional interuption in your tv programs. and the sad thing is im only 20 so if i can remember when it wasnt this bad, that means its been progressing pretty rapidly.

this has been getting so bad that the chicago news papers and the rockford register star ran stories about how ridiculous these things are and that they are getting people scared for no reason, and people are also in turn not paying attention to the warnings and when bad things really do happen people dont take the proper precautions.

well tonight the storm came at around 9:00pm here in rockford IL and it wasnt that bad at all, some hard rain and some cool lighting but i have seen way worse. and it was over in like 30 minutes.

now i am totally in love with meteorology. in fact my dream of being a history professor works out perfectly because you have summers off ;p so the last thing i want to do is knock on people who have made the choice to study the weather for a living.

but in all seriousness, and allred this is why i think your post was important, look at all the people in katrina and all the other hurricanes throughout the year that never evacuate, and end up getting stranded or dying. i can't tell you how many times last year i heard people say in interviews that they were staying at home because they didnt fully buy into what the weather channel was saying about the severity of the hurricanes.

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but more on topic, why do you guys think it has been so quiet so far? and why do think they sensationalize these things? just more air time?


Thanks again for your posts, and im glad you guys like the topic

Digitalgrl

I live in Florida, and they actually said the waters around us are 2 degrees lower, which is HUGE, and will affect hurricane formation. Hopefully it stays that way

Fortunately, despite predictions, conditions don't seem to be so condusive for storm formation at the moment as they were this time last year. Plenty of time for that to change.

On average, the 2nd named storm of the season doesn't form until around the end of July ...

A. do you think that this whole hurricane thing was unduely sensationalized?
No

B. do you think that the season will live up to the predictions that were given?
13-16 named storms...yeah.

C. do you think that america will be hit hard at all by any of the hurricanes as bad as we were last season?
It only takes one to cause massive destruction, I hope the answer is No, but I really can't say.

D. or do you think that the predictions actually mislead us as to how bad it really is going to get, and we should expect something even worse than what we saw last year?
No, the predictions given by the scientists are just that, predictions...based on patterns, cycles and weather patterns being experienced. I don't think we being mislead or lead, just given the most likely scenarios of what to expect.

imo, don't count out the 2006 hurricane season until it is over, which is in November. Actitivity will definitely increase August thru October.



[edit on 7-18-2006 by worldwatcher]

thanks for posting worldwatcher

i dont fully agree with you though. i think it is sensationalized, for reasons i mentioned in a couple of my posts above. however just to clarify, i dont think the scientists are, i think it is the news broadcasters. and so when you say you dont think the scientists are i do agree with you on that point. i do disagree that there will be as many storms hitting the united states within the period of time we have left as they suggested earlier.

thanks for your input.

kind regards
Digitalgrl

I read here that the peak time for Atlantic hurricanes is in August. I would like to say that the peak time starts in mid August and lasts through late October with the top peak apparently in September. The link below has a chart showing the peak.

hurricanes.noaa.gov...

Looking at the chart, it looks like there usually is very little activity until we get close to August.

I do agree that the news media seems to occasionally overstate the danger of hurricanes. However when they get it wrong the other way, people have died.

Hmmm.............

1. If I were God, and tired of all these people saying they know when the weather's going to change months before it happens, I would still the seas and make this the quietest-yet-hottest year on record.

2. Do any of you realise how many humans are praying for no storms this year? If there is any power in prayer....

3. Hush! You'll Jinx us. There's just some things you don't talk about.

orionthehunter,

yep i agree with you, i did mention that in my post about when the peak season is. i think the real problem here is that when the scientists make these predictions, the news media interprets it in any way they choose to, and the spin it big time. so everyone has been bracing themselves for all these huge hurricanes and so far nothing.

again, let me re-emphasise that im not saying i dont think anything will happen, im just say with all the hype we heard in the spring about this, its been pretty quiet so far. and i also just want to say so people dont misunderstand...im not hoping for anything either


thanks for posting

Digitalgrl

earthobservatory.nasa.gov...

Hah...big land falling hurricanes coming your way!!!!!

...maybe

ummm i read it and it actually talked about certian areas being unusually week. it didnt name any specific storms heading our way. can you tell me what you are refering to in the article?


Digitalgrl