posted on Aug, 7 2006 @ 10:09 AM
This isn't intended as a red meat type of post, but a political strategy post. I'm not baiting any one group or the other, just talking numbers and
I put even money on Hillary becoming the next president for several, incredibly realistic reasons. The most obvious being the rough and tenuous
position the would be Republican candidate will find himself in. Depending upon who survives the southern primaries, Hillary either strolls into the
White House, or really has to hunker down for a long winter.
For a republican to win, they have to be Conservative enough to win in South Carolina, but Moderate enough to win in New Hampshire.
While the numbers suggest Guliani and John McCain as the clear front runners on the Republican ticket - both beating Hillary, if the election were
held today with a thousand voters - they both have some logistical flaws in their approach. Condi Rice is being touted by the Hawks and Neo-Cons, but
she has an even more chaotic road ahead of her. Jeb Bush is being courted by the Evangelicals, but he has a harder road than anyone.
In fact, the only Republican with smoth sailing through the back office politics is Newt Gingrich.
Rudy Giuliani is a liberal Republican, so he either loses the Southern Primaries, or he wins, but the Evangelical/Pro-Life, Anti-Gay Rights
voter turnout will decrease dramatically. Plus, Giuliani is an admitted adulterer, so the soccer moms will be turned off. And, he has some pretty
embaressing secrets to hide, given his close relationship with Bernie Karik. (Not saying that as gossip, just the inference that everyone has secrets
to hide, and his could be explosive. As an Obtober surprise, it would be devestating)
Mainstream Republican voters love him, but Values Voters simply won't be impassioned to stand in line and vote for a guy who doesn't represent their
views - not matter how much they don't like Hillary.
MY PREDICTION Regardless of how messy the electoral map becomes during the General, I just don't see him surviving the Southern Primaries
intact. He has to compete with McCain for the same moderate Republican votes, while hard right candidates breeze through. Look for him to pull a
Howard Dean, and fizzle out by South Carolina.
John McCain has the quintissential as the political maverick, and his military career gives a much need credability on foriegn policy matters,
but his insistance on playing the meverick card too often has infuriated the two core demographics of the Republican party: Southern white men, and
Evangelicals. Both of whom view his past behavior during the Bush years as a personal betrayal.
McCain's Detainee Amendment was viewed as soft liberalism during a war, not to mention his inclusion in the gang of 14, which prevented more
conservative judges to be appointed. While being very conservative himself, he has to fight his moderate media portrayel if he has any shot at winning
He's has some pretty bitter fueds with both Bush AND Karl Rove, but it seems as though they've patched things up, in order to create an heir
apparent. And, while he publicly patched up his fued with Jerry Falwell, behind closed doors, I can't imagine Falwell - and his many Religious Right
supporters - are none to happy to see him succeed.
But, the one thing that will most certainly doom John McCain is his near constant battles with the Republican machine. The influential, backstage
power brokers and influential donors who influence policy making decisions. As the Chairmain of the Senate Subcommittee Indian Affairs, he's
personally responsible for crushing Jack Abramof, and thereby destroying the political careers of Tom Delay, Ralph Reed, and Bob Ney...plus of a whole
cadre of powerful, well connected senators and congressmen.
If the Democrats retake the House and Senate, it will be because John McCain exposed corruption at the the highest levels of government, and turned
out his fellow Republicans, handing them otheir pink slips on a silver platter.
Now, make no mistake Ladies and Gentlemen, the HIGH NOON - Gary Cooper routine makes for great media, but it wins an untenable amount of animosity
from the very people he needs to win. And, these are the people that know where the bodies are buried.
The read on McCain is that he's politically savy, but has a hair trigger which quickly escalates into a full blown temper tantrum when things don't
go his way.
Do not be surprised if an embaressing and damaging tape of a McCain temper tantrum is somehow filtered to the Media from Newt's people. If so, he's
MY PREDICTION: If the Bush political machine backs McCain, he might be able to overcome his shortcomings with idealogues. If Giuliani drops out
before South Carolina, McCain has a chance. But, if Giuliani stays in, they compete for the same moderate votes, thereby splitting them and hurting
However, If McCain somehow wins South Carolina, he carries the Republican Primaries, and has a 50/50 shot at becoming the next president. If he places
anything other than first or second in South Carolina, it's over before it begins