EXCELLENT work Vagabond.

"But, do you really think this administration might fake a tape from bin Laden just to start a war?" she queried naively.

I mean I can see them taking out the towers, but faking a tape?!

Why fake it? Bin Laden has always had a price for the USA before, hasn't he?
The CIA has a LONG history of copiously tying up the loose ends. It's amazing that ANYBODY survived the Kennedy thing. You've gotta kill the president, the fall guy, the fall guy's assassin, the brother- it seems like everytime somebody kills somebody else for the CIA, that person in turn gets taken care of-

Yet we let Bin Laden outlive his usefulness? Not sure I buy it.

[edit on 4-1-2007 by The Vagabond]

I don't think anybody cares. It's just Africa.

Sure this was was predicted simply by following the assumption that the US would kill people for economic and strategic gain, thus demonstrating that this has PNAC written all over it, but people die in Africa all the time and it's not on TV, so I don't think I should expect too many responses.

It's only wrong for the Bush administration to sneak around the world using military force under false pretenses in parts of the world that TV news networks care about.

Well I'm responding and providing news updates, but you're ignoring me!!????

So at least one person cares!

I appologize my friend. I did not mean to be ignoring you, I was basically lamenting outloud for both of our sakes.

Since we are both here, although history suggests that we'll have relatively little company, we might as well probe things a bit more.

The most immediate question is what exactly are they going to do with Somalia to keep it from turning into.... well, Somalia again.

It seems to me that the United States has resolved to play a background role in this one, almost certainly for internal political reasons, which leaves basically Ethiopia and hopefully the AU... unless India steps up to the plate.

I think that will be a major test of my theory. If India backs our play here the whole scenario I've been proposing seems far less fringe, but if they don't, it looks more like we're trying to gain leverage over them that they would rather we didn't have.

So I guess the thing to do is see what's been going on in India and the AU that might be of relevance. Get back to you soon.

No worries - wondered if I was on 'ignore'.

It is an interesting situation. I think previously African resources were either marginal (oil), obtainable elsewhere (timber) or could be obtained by trade on the open market.


As the appetite for these resources has grown China has moved to exploit its relationship with African countries ("we don't care how you rule your country, we'll support you with our UN SC veto, as long as you give us your resources"). This has clearly rattled the US and to some extent the EU.

I can imagine the EU find Africa difficult with our various colonial histories never far away and it seems to me Africa has been passed to the US as the a sphere of influence for the western powers.

I think it's a two-fold exercise; 1 secure resources, 2 limit China's expansion by diverting their resources.

When I first heard the oil statement linked above I predicted privately a rise in 'terrorism' and 3rd party wars in the region as it seems to me this is now US SOP in grabbing influence / resources. That seems to be coming true.

I heard that one of Bolton's final acts was to push through the removal of the UN arms embargo on Somalia before he left office. That suggests to me the US has Somalia firmly in its sights and will increasingly meddle in their affairs for its own ends.

Given the recent US experience in Somalia I'm sure they've realised that as direct US intervention is doomed and therefore I can only see it being via 3rd parties - Ethiopia does seem to be fulfilling this role but I don't know how closely aligned they are to the US. I think the US has moved from 'improving' Africa to an approach much closer to that of China - the US signed an oil deal with one of the Guineas (West Quinea??) that completely ignores that regime's bloody, torturing dictatorship - I'm sure there are many more such arrangements in the offing.

I think over the next few years we'll all become increasingly familiar with Africa, its politics and the inevitable tragedies to come.

Cheers

S

Equitorial Guinnea, if I'm not mistaken, is the one we've been all over, definately as an attempt to cut in on China, which is always happy to look the other way (toward the skeletons in its own closet perhaps).

I also believe that this might go slightly farther than just blunting China's edge though. I think the US may actually be ready to start "nation building" (read puppet building) again. Not only is that where the money is, it's where the power is, and we're talking power you can't buy- the power to manipulate the long term world labor supply on a whim in whatever way screws China the worst.


Oh and incidentally, I just found out that we have pulled the USS Eisenhower out of the Persian Gulf, even though it's supposedly the only carrier in the region right now. Apparently we've had it there for a few days, since it seems like at least one of her destroyers has been there since the New Year. This may prove to be a bit bigger than one airstrike.

Originally posted by xpert11
Meddling in Africa is a waste of time

No it isn't.

First of all I'd like to compliment Vaga as this is a terrific thread!
China is becoming predominantly dependent on the resources-rich African continent while America is gradually losing power. While we Westerners are trying ''to bring democracy to the Middle East'' and dealing with the ''war on terrorism'', China steadily continues to build up a massive war machine and plunder the African continent. In exchange for labor and resources, Africans are given cheap Chinese cars, televisions and so on.

Any direct US approach would inevitably result in unfavorable conditions for the US (Dollar speculation, oil prices etc.). By clandestinely cutting off the resource supplies from the African continent to China, China will become more dependent on the Western world again. China is a growing threat; it won't last forever till they take over the position as the world's number one superpower. Meanwhile the US will try to prevent this. A strategy that might take decades.