The Vagabond,
This is a good post, I think you are onto something and you sound like you haven't quite figured out what is going to happen, but you feel you are
getting close.
I would like to make a few points.
The US is already engaged on the Horn of Africa from Camp Lemonier in Djibouti, where the US Army has about 2,000 troops, and SOF operates from. The
US Navy has used the ScanEagle aboard the
USS Oak
Hill and
USS Trenton to
monitor both Iran and areas around Africa from the Arabian Sea.
Piracy returned last year
as a major issue in the region, and with the Islamic Courts looking the other way, it is likely to continue.
The other African region the US Military is becoming increasingly involved in is the
Gulf of Guinea. Both the
Royal Navy and US Navy have been sending major warships
to the area, and in trouble spots of major value, that typically means SOF. The Gulf of Guinea, which runs along the coast, is believed to hold as
much as
30 billion barrels of reserves.
One thing your post did was got me thinking about the UN angle in Africa. As you mentioned, Africa is the focus of most matters where the UN actually
takes action, and is currently in the progress of helping establish an African Standing Force.
African Standing Force. While the press has largely ignored such events, it is
noteworthy this gives the UN its
first military force it can control.
You see, where I disagree with you is that you believe the US has a strategy for Africa, where I would argue the US hasn't had a strategy for Africa
since, well since 1865 actually. With the exception of the two specific places US troops are operating from, and the
working US military alliance with Egypt which already allows the US major
access to the Suez Canal, the US has virtually no policy in Africa. The lack of a working policy in Africa makes sense to me, because it would explain
why the UN has so much power there.
So, assuming the UN is leading into Africa, the question becomes which countries have the most influence in the UN, and the 3 answers at the top of
the list have to be France, India, and China.
If you believe that Africa is the focus in 2006, then you should be aware that
China has dubbed 2006 the "Year of Africa." That is a
direct quote from Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao.
After all, when it comes to foreign policy, China usually starts with Military Sales, and Africa would be no exception:
Sudan. China has sold the Islamic government in Khartoum weapons and $100 million worth of Shenyang fighter planes, including 12 F-7 jets. Any
military air presence exercised by the government, including the helicopter gunships reportedly used to terrorize civilians in Darfur, comes from
China.
Equatorial Guinea. China has provided military training and Chinese specialists in heavy military equipment to the leaders of the tiny nation,
whose oil reserves approach and may exceed those of Saudi Arabia.
Ethiopia and Eritrea. China sold Ethiopia and its neighbor, Eritrea, an estimated $1 billion worth of weapons before and during their border
war.
Burundi. In 1995, a Chinese ship carrying 152 tons of ammunition and light weapons meant for the army of Burundi was refused permission to dock
in Tanzania.
Tanzania. According to the Overseas Development Institute, China has delivered at least thirteen covert shipments of weapons labeled as
agricultural equipment to Dar-es-Salaam.
Zimbabwe. The government of Robert Mugabe ordered twelve FC-1 fighter jets and 100 military vehicles from China in 2004 in a deal worth $200
million. In May 2000, China reportedly swapped a shipment of small arms for eight tons of Zimbabwean elephant ivory. In addition, the International
Broadcast Bureau says China provided a radio jamming device to Zimbabwe that allows Mugabe's regime to block broadcasts of independent news sources
like Radio Africa from a military base outside Harare.
(links for above information removed due to character limit, but sources provided for research)
China is just one angle. The French angle is also interesting. While the French have a foreign policy that includes
hugging Hamas, they
have also
recently revisited their African Policy. It is
noteworthy that France is on the UN Security Council because of their influence in Africa, but that influence is in decline. France is still trying to
get over their involvement in the Rwanda genocide.
While France may be on the way out, India is a different story. At the World Economic Forum on Africa last month, Africa sent a clear signal.
Africa debates terms for new China and India partnership
Mandisi Mpahlwa, Minister of Trade and Industry of South Africa, stressed that Africa must capitalize on the commodities boom driven by Chinese and
Indian demand to “establish new platforms of economic competitiveness to build new capacities."
India has the most foreign troops of any non African country in Africa, all UN Peacekeepers, and the
Indian Navy has no problem reaching the shores off Africa, easier than China in
fact, at least for now.
