Greenland Ice Melt: See if this don't scare you!, page 4
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reply posted on 27-6-2006 @ 12:16 AM by AceWombat04
By far the most prevalent argument against the purported reality of global warming as caused by human activity is that of natural climate change cycles whereby surface temperatures move up and down in predictable patterns.

However, this recent report on a survey of an extremely broad range of studies conducted by a panel convened by the National Research Council, threatens to take some wind out of that assertion's sails.


WASHINGTON - Weighing in on the highest profile debate about global warming, the nation's premier science policy body on Thursday voiced a "high level of confidence" that Earth is the hottest it has been in at least 400 years, and possibly even the last 2,000 years.

A panel convened by the National Research Council reached that conclusion in a broad review of scientific studies, reporting that the evidence indicates “recent warmth is unprecedented for at least the last 400 years.”

...

The report was requested last November by the chairman of the House Science Committee, Rep. Sherwood Boehlert, R-N.Y., to survey what science says about climate change over the last 2,000 years.

...

Between 1 A.D. and 1850, volcanic eruptions and solar fluctuations were the main causes of changes in greenhouse gas levels. But those temperature changes “were much less pronounced than the warming due to greenhouse gas” levels since the mid-19th century, the report said.

Link:
www.msnbc.msn.com...


Note that this report was requested by a Republican, demonstrating how this is (and should be) a non-partisan issue.

My position, however, is that regardless of whether human activity, natural trends, or some combination of the two are responsible for global warming, we are still going to be faced with challenges resulting from global warming that must be dealt with either way, and while we debate the causes and policies surrounding those challenges, they are multiplying and being exacerbated. If sea levels rise substantially, I seriously doubt we'll be as concerned with what caused it as we are with how to cope. What’s more important: whether we’re the cause, or how we’re going to deal with this? I say the latter is of greater importance, yet is being almost entirely ignored.

[edit on 27-6-2006 by AceWombat04]


reply posted on 27-6-2006 @ 02:07 AM by Indy
It may have been brought up already but in case it hasn't let me bring it up now. When it comes to our climate there is a reaction for every action. The greater the action the greater the reaction. Notice how in the winter when you have a long warm streak and it gets snapped by bitter cold? Or after months of dry weather you are slammed with flooding? Nature works to balance itself out.

So what about the ice melting? We've covered in endless threads here the impact of the fresh water runoff in the Atlantic and how it influences the ocean currents. Do people think that all this ice is going to melt without a severe reaction from our climate? Do people think that all this water is going to get dumped in and our ocean currents will continue to run as they do today?

Imagine a long board balanced with your foot on one end and on the other end a can of corn. As you slowly push your foot down the board tips and the can of corn starts to roll towards you. The further you push the board down the faster the can moves. This is what is happening with the ocean currents. The faster the fresh water melts off in to the Atlantic the faster D day slides closer to now. Maybe D day is Jan 1, 2015. If the ice keeps melting faster and faster you might see D day moved to Jan 1, 2012 or Jan 1, 2010. Perhaps it is too late and D day is Jan 1, 2007.

I have seen endless global warming support stories that try and diminish the effects of a failing ocean current. I have seen reports say that in order for the current to have a large enough impact on the climate it would have to shut down in a hurry. Provided that is true you would have to worry that the current rate of melt would accommodate a rapid shutdown. When you go back to the Little Ice Age you will see what a huge impact a disruption in the ocean currents can have. The medieval warm period was every bit as warm as today if not warmer and the climate managed to shift into the Little Ice Age.

Could it be worse? Absolutely. If the planet has warmed extensively and for a few years after the current fails the ice continues to melt it would not be a shock to me to see a scenario unfold like the Younger Dryas. If the flow of water is so heavy and the warmth so dramatic that the earth cannot regulate itself fast enough to shut off the melt for a few years the oceans may be overwhelmed. Such a scenario may result in an abrupt and complete shutdown of the currents. The climate will have a huge imbalance to correct and it will do so in a hurry. The results will be devastating.

When the dust finally settles the problems that have plagued the earth for thousands of years will be wiped clean. Those who have been strong enough to survive will have to live a new life that is void of many of the technologies we have today. It is going to happen. It may be happening now. But whether it happens today, 10 years from now, or 100 years from now there is nothing we can do to stop it. All we can do is prepare.


reply posted on 27-6-2006 @ 04:57 AM by Relentless
Originally posted by Space

No, is does not scare me...not even a little.


Perhaps you might want to check out this thread about the weakening of the gulf stream:

www.abovetopsecret.com...

Particularly make note of the information about the Atlantic conveyor. All this fresh water being dumped into the ocean here has significant impact on it. Even if it doesn't result in a sudden chunk dropping off and raising the level of the oceans, it has some serious consequences to the climate.

I'm with Loam on this one, unless I want to sit back, put blinders on and just watch, it scares me. Not that I'm the type to let fear rule my life, but I do think it's important to be aware of what's going on with things that are probably going to have an affect on future so it doesn't catch me by surprise.


reply posted on 27-6-2006 @ 10:30 AM by Sight2reality
Originally posted by brykc14
Originally posted by WithoutEqual
I find it laughable, that everyones so sure what the cause is for the climate changing, yet, they can't explain what caused other climate changes in the earths history.

Can anyone even give me an average temp for every year for the past 1000 years so I can take a look myself? Give me proof, not flashy videos, or gores crap, or psudoscience, but actual NUMBERS over the course of many years, that's what it'll take to convince me.


Here ya go, heres the proof. The temp chart goes back to 1850...As you can see we are getting much warmer.


www.abovetopsecret.com...



[edit on 25-6-2006 by brykc14]


I am sorry I have to chime in here, but how freeking accurate do you really think the records of GLOBAL temperaturs were in 1850? How about 1900? How about even 1950? There are countries that dont have the technology today to accurately report it. If you look at global temperature charts, there is one country that basically has a very steady temperature. Look closely. Find it. Then think about what that might mean.

It is ridiculous to cite records that you, as well as anyone with any brains what-so-ever could poke holes in.

I'm sorry, but it had to be said.



reply posted on 27-6-2006 @ 11:02 AM by tomra
Originally posted by Sight2reality
Originally posted by brykc14
Originally posted by WithoutEqual
I find it laughable, that everyones so sure what the cause is for the climate changing, yet, they can't explain what caused other climate changes in the earths history.

Can anyone even give me an average temp for every year for the past 1000 years so I can take a look myself? Give me proof, not flashy videos, or gores crap, or psudoscience, but actual NUMBERS over the course of many years, that's what it'll take to convince me.


Here ya go, heres the proof. The temp chart goes back to 1850...As you can see we are getting much warmer.


www.abovetopsecret.com...



[edit on 25-6-2006 by brykc14]


I am sorry I have to chime in here, but how freeking accurate do you really think the records of GLOBAL temperaturs were in 1850? How about 1900? How about even 1950? There are countries that dont have the technology today to accurately report it. If you look at global temperature charts, there is one country that basically has a very steady temperature. Look closely. Find it. Then think about what that might mean.

It is ridiculous to cite records that you, as well as anyone with any brains what-so-ever could poke holes in.

I'm sorry, but it had to be said.


I assume you don´t really need it freaking accurate as it is the trends over a span of time which gives us a clue about which way the graph is pointing. Obvisously measurements are more accurate in these modern times but i would be very surprised if increased quality in measurment equipment equals results showing increased temparatures graphs?!?

What country are you talking about?


reply posted on 27-6-2006 @ 04:06 PM by Muaddib
Originally posted by DYepes
I see I have figure out the problem. Underwater facilities "costing" too much to build, prime real estate to own in the future.We will lose money from our shipping, money money money blah blah blah. When your biggest objections for investing in new age facilities, helping curb pollution for the sake of our own health and the environment, not necesarily global warming is because it costs too much or there is no profit return I think it may be time to abandon Capatalism, or at least revise and come up with a new dirve for humanity.


I see now that you agree with the dumbass of Chavez. Trying to make the world believe that Capitalism is the problem and only Communism/true socialism will solve the problem.... So tell us DYepes, what does true socialism/Communism have anything to do with the entire solar system going throught a global climate change?... You think that if the world becomes Communist the whole Universe will stop the entire solar system from going throught the global climate change it is going through?....


Originally posted by DYepes
What good is all that money if you lose half of a civilization which will render physical money useless? Socialist/Communist nations like China and their allies who will not hesitate to see the light will be the ones who survive any future global climatic apocaypse. They will not be in denial of the subject because it costs too much or worrying about the profit. They will have future colonies researched, tested, and developed through trial and error while Capitalists laugh about the waste of money and the drain on their revenues. Once the flooding takes their land or it is ripped part by earth tremors it will be them that we run to seekig shelter, information and aid for our own lack of preparedness.

Thankfully we are all at least storing our seeds for the future of our crops.


Capitalism is not only about "money".....anyways, i am pretty sure this discussion has nothing to do about economic systems/political systems, but I can see how some.....members might try to use this as an excuse to spread their propaganda... Right now Venezuela has the worse environmental laws than almost any other country on Earth... Go to Venezuela and ask Chavez to take you to an oil rig owned and operated by Venezuelan companies, then come back here and tell us how true socialism is going to save the world....

Do a search about "how many cars does China expect to have in the future", or "illegal logging"...in fact let me help you...

China consumes nearly 280 million cubic meters of timber a year, but domestic supply currently provides only 142 million cubic meters. As production shrinks, China is turning to imports and illegal logging to make up for the shortfall. The International Tropical Timber Organization forecasts that within the next few years China will become the world's largest log importer, edging out the United States and eclipsing Japan, whose massive imports have already destroyed many of the rainforests of the Philippines and much of Borneo.

www.earth-policy.org...

Of course you will now claim that this is only happening now that China is embracing Capitalism, so that their Communist doctrine can survive.... but that is not the truth.

Conflict Timbers and China
Myanmar's forests are being ravaged by logging fueled by voracious
demand in China. Illegal logging of the World's last ancient
forests continues to fuel war, and social and environmental
collapse. Ill-gotten "conflict timbers" end up in a variety of
markets. China, however, with its huge appetite for timber and
deadly history of over-cutting its own forests is responsible for
much of Asia's conflict ridden illegal logging. China's widely
proclaimed concern for the environment apparently ends at its own
borders, as it imports timbers and other raw materials with little
if any concern for its origin or methods of extraction.

forests.org...

DYepes...leave your "true socialist propaganda" for people that are not more educated...and people that do not have access to finding the truth about what is the cause for global climate change...



reply posted on 27-6-2006 @ 04:10 PM by arius
The theory goes like this:
As the earth cools water in the form of snow is deposited slowly at the poles and the level of the ocean recedes. Over time this ice forms hundreds or thousands of feet of snow. If we assume an ice depth of 15000 feet and divide it by the average snowfall of 3" per year then we have the following equations detailing how long it has taken this amount of ice to accumulate:

15000 ft * 12"/ft = 180000"
180000" / 3" / year = 60000 years

If we assume that the earth is millions of years old the the question arises, " Why hasn't the level of ice risen so high that further accumulation is impossible due to the fact that the ice level has risen to the edge of the atmoshere at which precipitation takes place.

1 mile = 5280 feet
therefore 15000 feet = 2.84 miles
clouds can form as high as 4 1/2 miles

if we assume 4 1/2 miles to be the maximum elevation at which new ice could collect then the total amount of time for this to form would be:

23760 ft * 1/.25 ft / year = 95040 years
however we must also take into account that the weight of the ice will force the continent downward. Currently antartica is depressed 1500 feet due to the weight of this ice

1500'/15000' = x/23760' -> 2376'

we can therefore assume roughly that the total depression of the antartic continent would be roughly 2376' at the maximum level of elevation.

so roughly it would take 95040 years of snow accumulation for the antartic ice sheet to reach its full potential. this should mean that

1)the earth experiences alternating periods of thaw and freeze else this would have already reached its full potential

2)water levels might actually go down or remain the same if the ice melts due to the fact that an entire continent 1500 feet thick has been pushed below sea level.

3)i was bored and the numbers i have crunched although making mathematical sense do not apply to the question at hand

4)we should listen to the scientists who actually take samples and make mathematical models versus the pseudoscientific nonsense neo-cons spout to keep everyone from getting concerned. its much more fun to bomb third world countries than to do the heavy lifting of solving mankinds greatest problems
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