Iran War Justification Scenarios

06/02/06 -- --Former CIA analyst and Presidential advisor Ray McGovern, fresh from his heated public confrontation with Donald Rumsfeld, fears that staged terror attacks across Europe and the US are probable in order to justify the Bush administration's plan to launch a military strike against Iran, which he thinks will take place in June or July.

Appearing on The Alex Jones Show, McGovern was asked about the timetable for war in Iran and said that behind the diplomatic smokescreen, the final chess pieces were being moved into position.

"There is already one carrier task force there in the Gulf, two are steaming toward it at the last report I have at least - they will all be there in another week or so."

"The propaganda has been laid, the aircraft carriers are in place, it doesn't take much to fly the bombers out of British and US bases - cruise missiles are at the ready, Israel is egging us on," said McGovern.

www.globalresearch.ca...

Do you think the world will fall for this trick again? I feel we've all become a bit jaded by this 'bomb goes off - let's attack' pavlovian response we've seen before

Personally I think it will take a nuclear device to be detonated by the shadowy powers (probably on the Iran / Iraq border) to 'convince' us all that Iran is a serious threat.

Thoughts?


(post tweaked due to a very helpful mod who has guided me towards the light)

[edit on 15-6-2006 by Strangerous]

I'm not sure they'll even need a justification at this point in time. I get the feeling that if they want to do it they're just going to go ahead and do it whatever the public think. My view is that if they're going to attack they'll just go ahead and do it citing the Iranian nuclear program as their 'justification'.

They might go in with air-strikes to 'disable the Iranian nuclear sites' causing Iran to retaliate. They'll have all the justification they need as soon as Iran attempts to strike back.

Originally posted by Chris McGee
I'm not sure they'll even need a justification at this point in time. I get the feeling that if they want to do it they're just going to go ahead and do it whatever the public think. My view is that if they're going to attack they'll just go ahead and do it citing the Iranian nuclear program as their 'justification'.

They might go in with air-strikes to 'disable the Iranian nuclear sites' causing Iran to retaliate. They'll have all the justification they need as soon as Iran attempts to strike back.

I actually agree with you. I think if anything, all the opposition in the past has made the U.S. government even more inclined to act unilaterally. Its like they've said "They're not gonna support us? Then I won't ask them next time."

posted by Strangerous

06/02/06. Former CIA analyst Ray McGovern, fresh from his public confrontation with [the Oberfuhrer] Rumsfeld, fears that “staged” terror attacks in Europe and the US are probable to justify the Bush administration's plan to launch a military strike against Iran in June or July.
[Edited by Don W]

Well, we’d be at a disadvantage to learn who was responsible for any terrorist attack anywhere. That kind of info is almost entirely within the exclusive province of Governments. I’d like to believe no CIA or FBI agent would engage in any deceitful ops like that. I’m not so confident about our super patriots manning the super secret Black Ops units. SOF. Being hidden from public view makes them less reliable not to break fundamental laws of the land.

I hate secret police and I hate secret military units.

Appearing on The Alex Jones Show, McGovern was asked about the timetable for war in Iran and said that behind the [current] diplomatic smokescreen, the final chess pieces were being moved into position. "There is already one carrier task force there in the Gulf, two are steaming toward it at the last report - they will all be there in another week or so."

"The propaganda has been laid, the aircraft carriers are in place, it doesn't take much to fly the bombers out of British and US bases - cruise missiles are at the ready, Israel is egging us on," said McGovern.

Do you think the world will fall for this trick again? I feel we've become jaded by the Pavlovian response we've seen before. Personally I think it will take a nuclear device to be detonated by the shadowy powers (probably on the Iran / Iraq border) to 'convince' us all that Iran is a serious threat. Thoughts?
[Edited by Don W]

1) Who would detonate a nuclear device on the Iran and Iraq border?
2) For what purpose?
3) Would it be a “demo” bomb, i.e., not kill anyone, or would it be in a populated area?
4) If it is done by a “shadowy power” how could we be sure it was Iran and not some North Koreans who came on the sly over the old Silk Road?

sweatmonicaido posted
The US might go with air-strikes to disable the Iranian nuclear sites causing Iran to retaliate. The US would have justification if Iran attempts to strike back. I think all the opposition in the past has made the U.S. government even more inclined to act unilaterally. It’s like they say, "They're not gonna support us? Then I won't ask them next time." [Edited by Don W]

The simple way for Iran to retaliate against the US is to stop its exporting of the 1.5 million barrels of oil a day. They might also allow the Hezbullah out of Lebanon to plant some bombs in oil tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz. Whether of not the bombs go off will not matter as the price of oil will skyrocket! Iran must stay in a deniable pose, of course.


[edit on 6/15/2006 by donwhite]

Any attack on Iran will have a number of bad effects for America. As has already been said, Iran will just close the Arabian gulf to shipping.

The other effect will be absolute outrage by Iran's powerful friends and trading partners Russia and China. It will also drive the wedge deeper between lunatic America and moderate nations like Australia.

I am trying hard to think of any possible advantages for America in beginning yet another war.

Better to let Iran build it's nukes and join the nuclear club like Pakistan has already done. It is now inevitable that Iran will obtain nuclear capability, probably quite soon, and nothing is going to prevent it.

Well it depends how you think.
After watching Iraq, Im sure Iran knows full well that the hierachy at the top of the ladder are going to be hit by 'decapititaion' strikes.

They wont be sitting around WATCHING the reactors get hit,
the US will try to hit them, then immediately it will start the air campaign.
Chances are, the israeli's will be heavily involved too.

So why would the iranian president wait?
My motto in war or a simple fight,
is as soon as youve gotten the impression that your opponent is thinking of hitting you,
you hit fast and hard. because if they are in the frameset to THINK it, there obviously in the frameset to DO IT.

With this in mind,
Iran knows that when the campaign starts, they wont be able to make good on there israeli removal idea, or the american blood bath idea.

I believe Israel are close to a bomb, if not they are in the final stages of making a crude device.
Actually 2x

Deploy one in Iraq, as close to the greenzone as possible.
and get the other one into Israel.

They wont test there devices, because that will effectivley take away there opportunity to strike. No one will sit by for more than an hour if they TEST a nuke in the desert.

SO test one in Iraq,
the instant you know your device works, you detonate the primary in israel.

Kill Americas,
Kill Israeli's.

Regardless of the aircampaign now, youve started your Great war to return the prophet,
You've defeated America and Israel by sneaking a major attack in on there base
youve shown the world that the great satan can be brought to its knee's.

And hell, if they doo bomb the absolute CRAPOLA out of Iran, he will meet allah, and effectivley start his life with his virgins,
and the great war of civilisations will of started.

quite a scary scenario.

posted by Agit8dChop

After watching Iraq, I’m sure Iran knows the hierarchy at the top of the ladder are going to be hit by 'decapitation' strikes . . the Israeli's will be heavily involved. My motto: as soon as you’ve gotten the impression that your opponent is thinking of hitting you, you hit fast and hard. I believe Iran is close to a bomb, or two . . if not they are in the final stages of making a crude device. Deploy one in Iraq, as close to the green zone as possible and get the other one into Israel.

[Edited by Don W]

[edit on 6/15/2006 by donwhite]

??? what are ya talking about Don?

Im going off how the US tried to hit Iraq in the begining,
remove the leader before the war starts...
wouldnt that be a sound judgement to make in this case?

Iran knows they will be beaten in an aircampaign, especially after watching Iraq,
again, wouldnt it be safe to assume they would rather achieve their goal before there killed,
rather than wait to be killed, and become the muslim nation that ALMOST achieved its started dream?

Maybe we sound alike because, Iran are actually a threat.
They COULD come good on there promises..

Iraq on the other hand was a total farse.
A total LIE
a waste of lives.
a black mark on western civilisation.
I dont know how many other ways to describe it but i was the single most STUPID move a christan western nation could make against another region.
ESPECIALLY A dedicated Muslim nation.

Iran definately wont be another Iraq.

but to be honest, i find your reply pointless.
You dont ADD to the topic, you simply take aim at a poster.
especially with such a BIG quote,
try breaking it down, explaining your pov rather than just your opinion of Me.

Sorry should have made it clearer.

Any war with Iran would need 'selling' for anyone other than US/Israel to be involved.

Even if there is a real danger posed by Iran Bush/Blair have cried 'wolf' too often and they will never be believed again. (US/Israel joint action is unthinkable - the US knows Israel is an unacceptable regime to many and to join them in this would further push America into a more despised marginal position. In both GW's massive efforts have been taken to keep the IDF out of it for this reason)

So they need an excuse / justification.

The precedent is there - Pearl Harbor, Gulf of Tonkin, Grenada etc etc. the US usually goes to war after a manufactured incident is used to whip up support / stifle opposition.

The guy I quoted in the article thinks it'll be a wave of bombings in Europe & the US (and the implication is clear it'll be the US/Mossad behind the bombings rather than the Iranians)

I don't think the World will fall for that again so something more 'spectacular' is required hence me favouring a 'demonstration' nuke - few casualties but Iran's capability and intent are 'proved' in one action.

It could be 'Tonkin' with a supposed attack on USN assets but again they've tried that one before.

I'm sure with the collective experience and smarts of the ATS crowd we can anticipate / get close to the measure that will be used to justify the war

The wacked thing is in this country there are a lot of people who don't need to be fooled or tricked. They are all for it just because its Iran and they care not wether Iran has WMD's or whatever other excuses pop up. If the president says its so , as appointed leader of this country they will back him 100% even if he is wrong in anyone elses eyes or the eyes of the law. The same applies for countries in the region making accusations and threats towards Iran as well. Wether they are wrong or right they will be backed by these same people. The trickery is for the rest that aren't devotees.

You are right pie man.

If some Iranian politician speaks of death and destruction to Israel, Americans are simply aghast at the evil of it all.

But when Bush gets up and threatens pre-emptive nuclear strike for some trumped up lie, Americans say, YEAH !!! Bring it on.

Americans as a nation seem to have become a nation of aggressive psychopaths, that love to watch foreigners die on CNN while they munch their dinner.

Death and violence purely for entertainment value. How sick and perverted is that ?

Warpspeed
If you google it, you will find accusations since 1998 of Iran acquiring WMD's and threats to bomb their facilities. Its now 8 years later and still accusations fly and threats are leveled at them to cross their borders and wipe out their facilities as was done to Iraq in the early 1990's. The funny thing is, that the majority of accusations and threats are coming from a country which themselves acquired WMD's through deception and law breaking. Im pretty sure if my neighbor puts a cannon in his backyard aimed at my house and complains to the town board ,when I go to do likewise, he's gonna get two big middle fingers from me telling him what he can do with his opinion.
It doesn't stop there,as there are also massive lawsuits leveled against Iran for millions of $ in Palestine and America for alleged weapons used by terrorists against foreigners that were supposedly supplied by Iran, funny but I wonder who has to pay for innocent dead civilians in Iraq and palestine when US or Israeli weapons kill ?
As a cheating husband will sometimes make false accusation towards his wife/girlfriend because of guilt , I firmly believe a lot of these accusations are based on projecting their own wrongdoings.

Pie




1 reference link that goes back to 1998

Originally posted by Warpspeed
But when Bush gets up and threatens pre-emptive nuclear strike for some trumped up lie, Americans say, YEAH !!! Bring it on. ... How sick and perverted is that ?

Well, definitely not as a "nation", but some of the people there are like that. War mongering, jingoist, and trigger-happy. It's scary, there are some even on ATS and they can't be reasoned with. I can only think that a violent, immature, and reactive media (of news, entertainment, fiction) is to blame.

Regardless of the aircampaign now, youve started your Great war to return the prophet,

Congratulations! you've swallowed the propaganda hook line and sinker!

And hell, if they doo bomb the absolute CRAPOLA out of Iran, he will meet allah, and effectivley start his life with his virgins,

You are talking about beliefs in the Sunni religion, not the predominantly Shiareligion of Iran. Once again well done for fanning the flames of the sacred propa fire of BS. !

IMO if America goes ahead and attacks Iran, it will will be the beginning of the end for America being the world Leader.
The international repercussions would be severe and to numerous to mention. The U.S.A's repution would be even further tarnished and they would be further ostrisized from the rest of the west. Sane people cannot stand by and let this happen.

How is it propogranda when its coming from the iranian PRESIDENTS mouth?
Doesnt he believe that the war will bring back the mahdi?

And when the US kill him in an Airstrike, he will become a MARTYR.
''Martyrs are guaranteed a fast track to Islamic paradise. Their deaths are depicted in economic terms. If they expend their lives as a living currency, Allah will exchange them for heavenly Islamic gardens. ''

So again on this site people would rather attack the poster than add to the post.

Why dont you sit back and try to understand what im TRYING to say,


We agree on the same outcome.
IF america DO ATTACK it will be a great disaster for world peace.
Especially the USA, they cannot and WILL not be able to win this war, and keep there international credability intact.

The USA governemnt knows this, which is WHY they agreed to join in on the talks between Iran and the EU and asia group.
The USA doesnt want to go in, they are tied up in iraq.
But they jsut cant seem to ADMIT they made a collosal error in going into IRAQ, an error that might cost them by being UNABLE To go into IRAN.

Yes your correct about propoganda,
but just because it is propoganda doesnt mean it is ALL fales misleading information.
Some of it has some guts to it.

Pie Man,

I could not agree with you more !

Steve,

It is sometimes difficult to see ourselves as others see us. But private gun ownership, and the whole macho aggressive violent thing seems to be fairly widespread in the US. AS you say, we have them here on this Forum too, as well as in the Whitehouse.

Kojac,

Who says the US is the world leader ? Because you have nukes maybe, plenty of other nations now have nukes, that is nothing.

Or maybe because the US dollar is the worlds reserve currency ? The US is now the poorest beggar nation on earth, requiring over two billion dollar per day in loans to keep functioning. Buddy can you loan me a dime ?

Or maybe it is the moral superiority of freedom and democracy ? Complete disregard of international law, and the Geneva convention, has stripped America of any pretense of moral worthiness. America is a rogue out of control lawless country.

World leader ? In what exactly.............

I think there are 2 possibility's

Iran react positive on the UN resolution ===> Terrorist attack to justify an Iran strike

Iran react negative on the UN resolution ===> No justification necessary for an Iran strike.

[edit on 16-6-2006 by CC01]

Yes CC! That's the plan

Warpseed

I cannot agree more with all the points you have brought up, and believe me when i say that i am no fan of the current U.S administration. However, justified or not, America has and continues to be the sole super power on this planet. I believe that is already starting to change, and there is much evidence that points to the rise of a multi-polar world. Especially with the rise of the EU, China, India, Brazil and the re-emergance of Russia. However, the U.s still do dominate the planet. Both ecenomically and militarily, and might is right. America's decision to act outside of the UN and persue it's own interests in attacking Iraq just goes to show that America sees itself as the worlds policeman and will not let mere international disapproval stand in it's way.

Is it right? NO. Will it last? NO. Do i like it? NO.

Is it the way things are now? Unfortunatly YES.

Originally posted by Agit8dChop
??? what are ya talking about Don?

Im going off how the US tried to hit Iraq in the begining,
remove the leader before the war starts...
wouldnt that be a sound judgement to make in this case?

Iran knows they will be beaten in an aircampaign, especially after watching Iraq,
again, wouldnt it be safe to assume they would rather achieve their goal before there killed,
rather than wait to be killed, and become the muslim nation that ALMOST achieved its started dream?

Maybe we sound alike because, Iran are actually a threat.
They COULD come good on there promises..

Iraq on the other hand was a total farse.
A total LIE
a waste of lives.
a black mark on western civilisation.
I dont know how many other ways to describe it but i was the single most STUPID move a christan western nation could make against another region.
ESPECIALLY A dedicated Muslim nation.

Iran definately wont be another Iraq.

but to be honest, i find your reply pointless.
You dont ADD to the topic, you simply take aim at a poster.
especially with such a BIG quote,
try breaking it down, explaining your pov rather than just your opinion of Me.

Please tell me why you hate america? I am just kidding. Nonsequiturs get me everytime. No One can answer that question because it's pointed and rhetorical.
No matter what you hate americca

You want to hear something as stupid as Iraq invasion? Creating new Martyrs for the Insurgency by doing a anti P.R. Campaign plastering their picture everywhere in the media. You know the old expression: Any P.R. is good P.R. That's like smacking a Polar Bear in the face w/ a newspaper saying "You are an evil Polar Bear" Stop the Insanity as Susan Powter might day.