Who “Turned” Zarqawi?

There are two scenarios that come to mind. First, that the American intelligence operation produced the needed info where Zarqawi would be and when. But it is also possible that people who know Zarqawi and his associates “gave him up” to the Americans.

Here is an oddity: The air strike that killed Zarqawi took place at 6:15 PM Baghdad time on Wednesday, June 7. His death was broadcast worldwide that night at 11:37 PM. At 12:17 AM, Thursday, 40 minutes later, Iraqi Prime Minister al-Maliki announced the last three positions in the new Cabinet had been filled. A Sunni had been appointed to the critical post, defense minister. Why was such an important appointment announced in the middle of the night, minutes after Zarqawi’s death went public, rather than at a press conference in the morning? Was this just coincidence? Or serendipity?"

There is another point. Shortly after announcing Zarqawi’s death, U.S. forces said they conducted raids on 17 other locations in and around Baghdad. They claimed the raids were based on intelligence gathered at the home where al-Zarqawi was killed, which had been blown up by two 500-pound bombs. Between 6:15 PM and early Thursday morning, the U.S. claims they sifted the rubble and found so many intact and readable documents they were able to carry out 17 raids around the City of Baghdad, a city of 3 million people without delay.

That is possible. But it is hard to imagine finding the material, analyzing it and tasking 17 separate raiding parties in the time involved. It could be the case, but a more easily believable scenario is that the same source that provided the intelligence on the location of al-Zarqawi's safe-house also provided intelligence on the 17 other locations.

The juxtaposition of the new Sunni appointee to the Cabinet and the “giving” up of Zarqawi’s safe house location, followed by a roundup at 17 locations around Baghdad may have been the Sunni signal to PM al-Maliki they were ready to deal.

The Sunni payment must now be reciprocated by a Shiite payment: a resolution on the status of the Shiite militias, which have been killing Sunnis in reprisal for jihadist attacks and torture suffered under Baathist rule, among other reasons. The Shia can move the political process forward by bringing their militias under control. If this is not the deal, then by Shia inaction, Iraq will return to the status quo. Clamping down on the Shiite militias will be a difficult process that will cause gut wrenching tensions in the Shiite community. That looks to be the price for a unitary Iraq in which Shiite power dominates but is limited by Sunni and Kurdish interests.

The plan PM al-Maliki had laid out prior to Zarqawi’s death was that the Shia militias would be integrated into the Iraqi army. The response from the Sunni head of Iraqi intelligence, which came shortly after al-Zarqawi's death, was that this was not an acceptable solution. If the militias were simply integrated into the Iraqi army as whole units, they would be able to continue carrying out their political function in uniform. The solution was to disarm the militias and turn them into unarmed civil servants.

Iraq under Saddam Hussein saw Iran play an important role in preserving some of the interests and power of the Iraqi Shia. The relationship between the Iraq and Iran communities isn't as simple as one might think. There are real and deep theological differences between An Najaf (Iraq) and Qom (Iran), the two centers of the Iraqi and Iranian Shia. There is also the unforgettable differences between Arabs and Persians. Just as the delivering up of al-Zarqawi represented a critical step in showing the Shia that there did not have to be permanent civil war with the Sunnis, getting control of the militias would be the Shiite way of demonstrating that the Sunnis don't have to fear the Shia permanently.

The Iraqi Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is not a careless man. He took a position crucial to the Coalition Forces success to date. In March, 2003, he issued a “fatwa” that good Shia should not interfere in the U. S. invasion of Iraq. Not all fatwas are bad.

Pres Geo W's visit to Baghdad this week celebrated one moment in this long and deadly process, and it was an important one. The next step in the drama will be difficult and painful, but the logic now is on the side of a long-term settlement and a long-term decline in the war. Let us hope so.



[edit on 6/14/2006 by donwhite]

Originally posted by donwhite

There are two scenarios that come to mind. First, that the American intelligence operation produced the needed info where Zarqawi would be and when. But it is also possible that people who know Zarqawi and his associates “gave him up” to the Americans.

ummmm they did, thats how they got him....one of his associates turned him in for a reward.....and protection living in the US was the usual deal....which I think is stupid...but whatever

posted by XphilesPhan

posted by donwhite

There are two scenarios. First, that the American intelligence operation produced the needed info where Zarqawi would be and when. But it is also possible that people who know Zarqawi and his associates “gave him up” to the Americans.
[Edited by Don W]

ummmm they did, that’s how they got him . . one of his associates turned him in for a reward . . and protection living in the US was the usual deal . . which I think is stupid . . but whatever . .

I thought I heard 2 nights ago on the tv news that the reward for OBL is $50 million. Formerly I thought it was $25 million. Gold fell to under $600, down to about $560 I think, so do you know how much gold $25 million is? 45,000 troy ounces. A troy ounce is .85 of a avoirdupois ounce. 2,375 pounds or a bit more than 1 ton. Hard to carry around. You’d think OBL would have been betrayed by now. I’m sure anyone could negotiate a much higher price on the QT.



[edit on 6/14/2006 by donwhite]

DW. Your last paragraph is the most important. Let us indeed hope that this begins to mark at the very least the end of the beginning of this horrible slog. On the face of it, it was coincidental, but maybe not so fast...

A political arrangment between the Sunni's and Shiite's is very possible, maybe even likely. Both sides have got to be getting tired of the incessent bloodshed, and internecine (sp?) violence. The main instigators of this violence aren't even Iraqi's, they are foreign nationals, on both sides. Could they have sold Zarqawi down the river in order to begin a political dialouge? The more I think on it the more likely it begins to seem.

I am no intelligence agent...Seagull, just plain Seagull. I understand from things that I've heard on the radio and TV, that a good portion of his (Zarqawi) electronic notepad survived intact along with files and suchlike. I wouldn't think it would be too hard to clean it up and make use of it. But like I said, I am not even close to resembling knowledgeable in this area.

One thing I think I can predict with absoulute certainty. Interesting times lie ahead over the next few weeks.

From that has come out after the fact, it seems that the op to get Zarqawi was in the works for quite some time. To be honest, it was nice to see a little old-fashioned Machavellian maneuver going in in the White House, for a change. There are some things about "old school" espionage that you just can;t beat.

I get the impression that the Iraqi parliament was using Al Zarqawi as an excuse to avoid certain chores. I have no doubt that Bush's visit to Baghdad was very eventful, behind closed door. the new leadership knows that it will not stay in power if the U.S. does not want it to. All we'd have to do is pull back just enough support from the alleged "green zone" to allow insurgent assassins to reach their targets. The new generation of privateers and carpet-baggers now in charge knows this, which gives 'em a lot of incentive to play nice when their arms have been properly twisted.

The data captured after the fact should not be a shock. Like I said, I am a fan of old school. If that stuff hadn't been there, I would like to think that some old spook had the good sense to put it where it could be "found."