Terrorism Analysis for mid-2006

The Taliban is on a key offensive this Spring.(cite) Wherein some are reporting that attacks are up 50 to 100 percent.

There were several people arrested in Canada with explosives, apparently in a plot to carry out serious terror attacks.

al-Zarqawi had been training operatives in Iraq to take his organization international, and carry out terror attacks across the globe. (cite).


Is this all part of the plot? Muslims aren't stupid, and just because these organizations are run and operated by zealots doesn't mean that they are incompetent or incapable.

al-Qaida is an international organization. Is this new uptick in al-Qaida related activity part of a plan, for coordinated global attacks and offenses?

In the very old days, wars were found during the spring/summer season, it just wasn't practical to fight in the winter. So that might be what is dictating the Taliban offensive, but, is it unreasonable to think that they are also coordinating other attacks to happen in the context of this offensive?

The Taliban aren't al-Qaida, but the two groups are heavily inter-twinned, with the Taliban leaders having been willing to suffer US invasion rather than to hand over bin Laden. Zarqawi is overblown and has a manufactured US mythos attached to him, BUT he still was a terrorist that operated an al-Qaida sympathetic group. Does this also mean that the Canadian terror suspects recently captured were part of an al-Qaida franchise?

Contrast this to efforts that are problaby unrelated or at least undirected by the al-Qaida structure, such as Hamas firing rockets into Israel, or Iran making moves one way or the other on the Nuke issue. Those are organizations that seem to be independant of al-Qaida. But the Taliban, Al-Qaida in Iraq, and perhaps these Canadian Terrorists, could they all be organs within a plot?

Has the whole plot been stopped? The Canadians were arrested, Zarqawi was at least killed, and the Taliban offensive hasn't had any success in terms of defeating the US Army in the field.

BUT are there more to come? al-Qaida tends to have 'twin' attacks, like the embasies and 911. Is it possible that these were all the 'twin' elements, or are there more traps about to be sprung?

The increased Taliban activty is due the Afgan government attempting to extend its authority to the provinces. Once winter sets in the coalition will have to root out the Taliban if they choose to regroup and recruit new members in hiding.

Heres a related article.

KANDAHAR, Afghanistan (AP) -- Security forces raided a southern Afghan village and killed 15 suspected militants, including a relative of Taliban leader Mullah Omar, while fighting elsewhere left 25 dead, an Afghan army general said Monday.

The violence extends three weeks of the fiercest battles since the Taliban's fall in 2001. U.S. Ambassador Ronald Neumann said the insurgents are proving to be better organized and greater in numbers than expected.

But Neumann predicted that the Taliban would be hit hard when thousands of new British, Canadian and Dutch troops deploy to the volatile south by next month to take over from U.S. troops.

link

The Pakistanis need to do harder to secure their borders. Even if it angers the pro Bin Laden people in Pakistan. Otherwise, the Taliban pretty much can do this for many years, along with Al Qaeda.

Interesting point xpert11. I have to wonder though, in other articles its been noted that the US is transfering many positions over to Nato troopers, and that that is spurring the taliban to strike. Might also account for an appearance of coordination.

Nygdan the hand over to NATO troops raises an interesting question.
Will the Taliban change there tactics due to the fact that NATO countries might not rely on massive amounts of firepower ?
The Taliban have to go on offensive no matter what flag the coalition troops fly. If the Afgan government takes controll of the provinces the whole picture changes.

I suspect that the offensive is a delaying tactic that is ment to give time to Al Qaeda and Taliban agents time to infiltrate the Afgan government. The real danger will come from the inside the Afgan government rather then the battles that take place in the provinces.

I sure hope that the coalition has good counter counter intelligence measures in place.

[edit on 13-6-2006 by xpert11]