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Occam's razor & Coincidence theorists

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posted on Jun, 18 2006 @ 02:31 AM
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Originally posted by bsbray11
Tuccy, what common conclusion do all of those coincidences point to?

Most of them seem pretty damned unrelated to me. Your professor let you go by 10:30, and then you go to a restaurant owned by someone you know? Alright, so what?


Conclusion is that to achieve this order of things seven coincidencies (at least) were needed just on that day. What's the probability? Nothing of this was planned.




posted on Jun, 18 2006 @ 02:58 AM
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Great thread.

This is easy, you design it so that Occams Razor is the official version. They could do this even if the official version is correct, the reason so that people will get so lost trying to solve impossible dynamics that causes everyone to disagree and argue, preventing people from focusing on all that truly matters: prior knowledge and them allowing it to happen or even making it easier. If everyones focused on the BS then everyone will never rise up under one voice to handle it. People still don't know for sure what happened to JFK, and 911 is 10x worse. If anyone has managed to figure out whats really the true case, they can believe they know, but in truth cant be absolutely sure. You just make it into a case of trying to prove/disprove the existance of God Himself. In truth, we can have our beliefs, but we're all subject to agnosis whether we accept it or not.

[edit on 18-6-2006 by IgnoranceIsntBlisss]



posted on Jun, 18 2006 @ 03:30 AM
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Originally posted by tuccy
Conclusion is that to achieve this order of things seven coincidencies (at least) were needed just on that day. What's the probability? Nothing of this was planned.


But you still don't see the difference between your examples, which are unrelated to each other, and "coincidences" given on this thread, which are related, by the events of Sept. 11?

Three governmental drills/terrorism exercises/wargames going on, on the same morning, and all mirroring the very events that would take place minutes later on that morning, have more in common than simply occuring on the same day! The events themselves are very significant, and link themselves not only to each other, but to the attacks on the WTC and Pentagon.

What you've offered as examples only share a common link by the fact that you did them on the same day in a specific order. One would have to be very dense to accept your analogy here as a valid one.



posted on Jun, 19 2006 @ 02:13 AM
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And what would be the reason for setting up the drill on the same day as the attack? What for? May I again point out to you that most likely Japanese govt was conspirating with FDR because on Doolittle's raid there was an air drill in Tokio so that the air defense remained mostly silent because they thought the B-25's are just part of drill? You see, such coincidences HAVE already happened.



posted on Jun, 20 2006 @ 09:48 PM
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Originally posted by tuccy
And what would be the reason for setting up the drill on the same day as the attack? What for?

War game drills were to distract the military -- create a decoy and an explanation as to why they didn't have time to intercept, "There was too much confusion".

The FEMA drill was to get FEMA personel near the area beforehand to unknowingly help manage the damage of their attack.



posted on Jun, 21 2006 @ 05:43 PM
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Originally posted by bsbray11
Three governmental drills/terrorism exercises/wargames going on, on the same morning, and all mirroring the very events that would take place minutes later on that morning, have more in common than simply occuring on the same day!


How many govermental drills/terrorism exercises/ wargames took place the whole year of 2001? Were the wargames public knowledge for those who wanted to find out?. Vigilant Guardian takes place every year and I'm pretty sure it sucks resources from around the U.S. to implement the exercises.



posted on Jun, 21 2006 @ 08:59 PM
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Originally posted by pavil
How many govermental drills/terrorism exercises/ wargames took place the whole year of 2001?


It's my understanding that NORAD does large-scale wargames like this once a year over the span of two or three days. For FEMA, I don't know, and I'm pretty sure the NRO thing was a pretty unique event.

But you're not just looking at the fact that these exercises all occurred on the morning of 9/11. You're looking at things like FEMA being in Manhattan, of all places, the day before 9/11, allegedly for Tripod II.

And unless Rudolph Giuliani, for whatever reason, stood before the 9/11 Commission and blabbered off complete nonsense about a non-existence FEMA exercise, which I seriously doubt, then FEMA also lied about being there the day before 9/11. Why?

Remember, a FEMA spokesperson (Tom Kenney) suggested that he was in NY with FEMA on Monday, the 10th, but this was later denied with a remark that the man was just tired and confused. This would technically be true because Kenney himself apparently wasn't there, but the critical suggestion was that FEMA had been in NYC, and the rebuttal of Kenney directly implied, if it didn't state outright, that FEMA itself had not been in NYC. But like I said, Giuliani gave quite an in-depth bit of information that even explained why FEMA was there early, to the 9/11 Commission (which was also ommitted from the report, and so was the transcript from the Commission's website). So there's more than a coincidence for you, but disinformation from FEMA about being in Manhattan on 9/10. (*)


Were the wargames public knowledge for those who wanted to find out?.


Rumsfeld was questioned on five wargames in a press conference once (*), and allowed the number, so we can assume that there were at least five. Names for about as many are already in public domain from various sources, but we only know specifics for one: Vigiliant Guardian. As for all the others, all that was reported was that they definitely caused confusion, and may have involved inserting false blips on radar screens.

So, no: aside from Vigilant Guardian, they weren't really public knowledge at all. We still don't know crap about what most of them entailed.



posted on Jun, 22 2006 @ 12:25 PM
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Originally posted by Wizy
And one thing that is evidenced throughout history about consipracies, is that at least one Part of the "conspiracy" falls apart (becomes known). Its been 5 yeras since the happenings on 9/11. IF there had been a conpspiracy, someone would have SAID something by now


Not necessarily - it has been over 40 years since JFK was assassinated, and the truth behind that has never been revealed


Originally posted by IgnoranceIsntBlisss
This is easy, you design it so that Occams Razor is the official version. They could do this even if the official version is correct, the reason so that people will get so lost trying to solve impossible dynamics that causes everyone to disagree and argue, preventing people from focusing on all that truly matters: prior knowledge and them allowing it to happen or even making it easier


Well said
it doesn't matter if the towers collapsed with our without explosives or what hit the Pentagon - at the end of the day, proving (or disproving) Prior Knowledge is much more important IMHO



posted on Jun, 25 2006 @ 08:07 PM
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Originally posted by pavil
How many govermental drills/terrorism exercises/ wargames took place the whole year of 2001? Were the wargames public knowledge for those who wanted to find out?. Vigilant Guardian takes place every year and I'm pretty sure it sucks resources from around the U.S. to implement the exercises.

So it's all just one big coincidence?



posted on Jun, 25 2006 @ 11:04 PM
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From Webster

coincidence

1 : the act or condition of coinciding :
2 : the occurrence of events that happen at the same time by accident but seem to have some connection; also : any of these occurrences m-w.com...


Yes, in hindsight there are coincidences. If it were such a vast conspiracy of coincidences as some contend, why didn't anyone notice them ahead of time? I'm surprised no one has said the 2000 election was part of the coincidence/conspiracy. From reading the coincidences, how long of a time frame did this conspiracy have? 1962, 1980's, 1995, 1997? Please tell me. Multiple Presidental administrations and yet not one major leaker ahead of time. That is a conspiracy in of itself.

People like to state that some of the exercises going on by the military around Sept. 11 took away resources from only the North East. Does anyone have a full list of Air force and Nat. Guard units diverted nationwide to those same exercises? I do not, but will venture to say that most parts of the U.S. had substantial military assets taking part in said exercises away from their homebases. Other exercises in the past have probably moved similar resources around as well.



posted on Jul, 14 2006 @ 07:03 PM
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if these coincidences were laden upon almost ANY other event, EVERYONE would "blow the whistle." but because it is of such EXTREME magnitude and is directly related to the land they love, we, for the most part, WISH we could deny it.

[edit on 14-7-2006 by daisaison_x]



posted on Jul, 14 2006 @ 07:44 PM
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Yes, in hindsight there are coincidences. If it were such a vast conspiracy of coincidences as some contend, why didn't anyone notice them ahead of time? I'm surprised no one has said the 2000 election was part of the coincidence/conspiracy. From reading the coincidences, how long of a time frame did this conspiracy have? 1962, 1980's, 1995, 1997? Please tell me. Multiple Presidental administrations and yet not one major leaker ahead of time. That is a conspiracy in of itself.

People like to state that some of the exercises going on by the military around Sept. 11 took away resources from only the North East. Does anyone have a full list of Air force and Nat. Guard units diverted nationwide to those same exercises? I do not, but will venture to say that most parts of the U.S. had substantial military assets taking part in said exercises away from their homebases. Other exercises in the past have probably moved similar resources around as well.



so basically you are trying to say that not only the entire northeast was vulnerable but many other important areas of the country? that is ABSURD. if i was playing starcraft, i would never leave any viable defense area distracted. nontheless, on the same day some catastrophic event occured.
at the rate of distractions the US military has concerning your "coincedence" debunking objective, we would have been wiped out by now... especially considering your idea that it was more than the northeast/mid-atlantic area you describe.

[edit on 14-7-2006 by daisaison_x]



posted on Jul, 14 2006 @ 07:46 PM
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I'm surprised no one has said the 2000 election was part of the coincidence/conspiracy.


this topic has had many appearances on a great enough level. don't expect it to appear in every topic.



posted on Jul, 14 2006 @ 07:50 PM
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Originally posted by Wizy
And one thing that is evidenced throughout history about consipracies, is that at least one Part of the "conspiracy" falls apart (becomes known). Its been 5 yeras since the happenings on 9/11. IF there had been a conpspiracy, someone would have SAID something by now


maybe someonce has, and you're not listening.



posted on Jul, 14 2006 @ 09:35 PM
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Originally posted by daisaison_x
so basically you are trying to say that not only the entire northeast was vulnerable but many other important areas of the country? that is ABSURD. if i was playing starcraft, i would never leave any viable defense area distracted. nontheless, on the same day some catastrophic event occured.


You do realize that where the major exercise was taking place, the North West the Russians were conducting a similar sized exercise in near the Bering Sea. To use your analogy of Starcraft.... if you saw your opponent massing forces in a location near you, wouldn't you respond by having forces there as well? Is that another Coinicidence for you?

I will ask someone else who know where to look to see exactly what units were involved in those exercises. In peacetime, I contend that many units from around the U.S. participate in those kind of exercises. Maybe some of our military or ex-military members could confirm or deny this. Remember on Sept. 11, 2001 we were at peace, it wasn't a computer game where you are expecting to attack and be attacked. Nobody was anticipating hostilities that day any more that they did on Sept 10, 2001.



posted on Jul, 15 2006 @ 01:32 PM
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Daisaion... The Starcraft analogy is a bad one as you can have there nearly unlimited pool of units if I remember correctly (or you can almost instanteously build new as the battle takes away the old ones).
But when speaking of games, download Steel Panthers WW2 from Shrapnel Games, try to be defending with your limited number of troops everywhere - and you'll be defeated everywhere.
The point of the armed forces isn't to defend everything, that's not possible (as Hitler and Japanese learned the hard way). Their job is to concentrate on most likely and most serious threats.
Prior to 0911 NORAD thought that hijack of airplane inside the USA or on outbound flight is unlikely - that's why they've concentrated to the Air Defense Identification Zones over the oceans and on inbound traffic - primary mission during CW was, of course, Bear hunting.
Now let's count... How many men does the US Army, Air Force and Navy have? How many cities to protect? Is it possible to have base at every city?
Look at Israel. Much smaller country with relatively much larger army and still it can't protect everything, still there are weak points...



posted on Jul, 15 2006 @ 10:40 PM
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Originally posted by diggs

Originally posted by HowardRoark
Then what was the point of saying "cave dwellars," if not to denigrate the hijacker's abilities?


You mean the hijackers who never flew 757/767's in real life before, said their flight skills sucked by all of their instructors, weren't allowed to rent Cessnas a month before the attack, drank, smoke, watched porn, hired prostitutes? Those hijackers? So nice to see you're so caring for them.


I noticed you pointed out they like to: drink, smoke, watch porn, go to strip clubs....basically you say they like to party.....as if someone with these kinds of traits will usually be too incompetant to do some kind of special skilled task.

Look at the elite Navy SEAL team six, they love to do the same things. Richard marcinko and his boys were known hardcore partiers, but they were far from incompetant, they were elite and specialists at what they did. These guys did what they did batter than people who DONT drink/smoke/party etc. Many Special ops guys are known to be hard partiers. if the 911 conspiracy were true, the spec ops guys who plant the demolitions would undoubtedly have the same partying traits. lol

partying tells you nothing about ones abilities or competance. IRRELEVANT!!!!



[edit on 15-7-2006 by bob2000]



posted on Jul, 15 2006 @ 10:50 PM
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Originally posted by pavil
I will ask someone else who know where to look to see exactly what units were involved in those exercises. In peacetime, I contend that many units from around the U.S. participate in those kind of exercises. Maybe some of our military or ex-military members could confirm or deny this. Remember on Sept. 11, 2001 we were at peace, it wasn't a computer game where you are expecting to attack and be attacked. Nobody was anticipating hostilities that day any more that they did on Sept 10, 2001.


I don't know what units were involved, but there are always units travelling around the US to participate in exercises. In January of every year we got units from the mainland to Hawaii for a big exercise involving the Hawaii Air National Guard. Everything from B-1s to B-52s, to F-16s. It's common to have units participating around the country in exercises.



posted on Aug, 15 2006 @ 04:31 PM
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great thread... superb application of occam's Razor, I learned a lot. just joined here after being pilloried on another thread for talking about 'conspiracy theories' (yet to think of a name I am more comfortable with, but CT's has too many associations for me) and so it's nice to see other conspiracy supporter's actually winning an argument... with style and panache, may I add



posted on Aug, 15 2006 @ 06:03 PM
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Try applying Occam's razor to each CT, you'll find that it always supports what you call the OCT, and what I can reality. I/T/B = in on it/threatened/bought off

1. Demolition of WTC1&2:
CT: Explosives/thermite/thermate was planted without anyone noticing and all relevant experts are I/T/B on it same for the cleanup/rescue crew who would have found all the detonators/unique damage from the CD
Reality: The plane impact and fires were enough to bring it down

Winner: Reality, CT has extra people and resources involved

2. No plane/different plane at the pentagon:
CT: Remote controlled plane/missile passengers are in on it or plane is landed and passengers killed, plane switched for another. Everyone that helped clean up is I/T/B
Reality: It was flight 77 and it hit the pentagon

Winner: Reality

Need I go on?

[edit on 15-8-2006 by Mr_pointy]



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