Seven Indonesian Bird Flu Cases Linked to Patients (Human to Human)

www.bloomberg.com...

"All seven people infected with bird flu in a cluster of Indonesian cases can be linked to other patients, according to disease trackers investigating possible human-to-human transmission of the H5N1 virus."

Dear God help us all if this thing takes off. Fortunately the report says it was possibly contracted through close contact, not casual contact. Scarey none the less.

[edit on 23-5-2006 by mecheng]

[edit on 23-5-2006 by mecheng]

[edit on 23-5-2006 by mecheng]

[edit on 23-5-2006 by mecheng]

I do agree it is pretty scary. Let's wait and see what develops in the next few days. In the mean time it would not hurt to update emergency supplies. Try to be prepared for whatever comes down the line. Good luck to us all.

Officials 'Stumped' by Indonesian Bird Flu

"Six of the seven people in an extended family in northern Sumatra who caught the disease have died, the most recent on Monday. WHO is investigating whether the H5N1 strain of bird flu was spread among family members, though it said Wednesday there was no evidence the virus had mutated to a form that will spread more easily between humans, possibly sparking a pandemic."

www.breitbart.com...

At least this is "somewhat" good new in that they haven't confirmed yet that has mutated to human to human. Not yet anyway... We'll have to keep a close eye on this one.

I was just thinking, do you think they aren't "confirming" yet just to keep us from panicing?

[edit on 24-5-2006 by mecheng]

I was just thinking, do you think they aren't "confirming" yet just to keep us from panicing?

Personally, I think that this is very grave news. I believe that they aren't confirming, because they really do want to be sure. Think about it, the first time the news is broken that Human to Human transmission is confirmed, there will absolutely be a repercussion. Slowly at first, as most of the population will blow it off. Then as more and more people begin to stock up, and the stores become more and more bare, it will quickly become a mass panic. In this instance, I believe that they do think it is able to jump from human to human, but they will wait for another couple of people in the area to contract the disease before "confirming".

I agree this potentially could be grave news. I think the WHO who has been under scrutiny in the past for with holding data and not making it public is treading very carefully with this.

What's disconcerting is the fact that they cannot find the source. The family had no contact nor lived in proxicimity to birds, chickens and the like. This cluster case is the longest.

Although the likelyhood of it traveling outside of the area is probably remote.

Any word on post mortem analysis of these victims.

If that confirms the virus has gone inter-human we´re right back at the discussion point where some dark NWO wants 80% of the world population gone to control the remaining 20%. Or just to create "Lebensraum" for the next Millenium.

7 down, 5,294,969,582 (80%) to go...

However, the number of transmission is still cloudy because WHO has failed to release the disease onset dates for the six family members between the first and last case. The incubation time for H5N1 is 2-4 days, which suggests the chain was H2H2H2H or H2H2H2H2H, which is also supported by contact history in the WHO update. Both of these chains are long, but may not be the longest.

Recombinomics Commentary May 24, 2006

www.recombinomics.com... This is a good site. I recommend book marking it.

"Officials Backtrack Bird Flu Cluster"

www.breitbart.com...

"The first person infected in a cluster of bird flu cases in a family in Indonesia may have come into contact with sick or dead chickens before possibly passing the virus on to relatives, a World Health Organization official said Thursday."

Interesting read. Particularly with regard to susceptibility between family members... blood relatives, not spouses.

Also they think this might be the first time there has been a three person chain infection (one infects another who infects another). In the past it sounds like any human-to-human transmission was only a two person chain.

[edit on 25-5-2006 by mecheng]

[edit on 25-5-2006 by mecheng]

source
The Sumatra cases are being traced back to Ginting's 37-year- old sister, Puji, who worked selling limes at the Tiga Panah market about 5 kilometers (3 miles) from her home in Kubu Sembelang.

She developed symptoms on April 27 and died of respiratory disease on May 4, according to the WHO. No specimens were obtained before her burial, and the cause of her death can't be confirmed, the agency said in a May 18 statement.

*************

Dozens of poultry farmers and sellers from Ginting's district slaughtered chickens and drank the blood in Medan on May 22 in a demonstration of their frustration at being branded by authorities as having been infected with avian flu. Footage of the protests was broadcast on Trans TV television.

Apparently tests for H5N1 in birds in the village of Kubu Sembelang have all come back negative!
It will be very interessting to see the further results of the ongoing studies.

Malaysia on the other hand will destroy any chicken, duck or any other fowl coming from Indonesia.

No need for laboratory testing. We don’t want to take the risk.

Surveillance has stepped up along the costline and on the border to Thailand.

www.recombinomics.com... This is a good site. I recommend book marking it.

Yes. Henery's site usually has the latest and best information as well as extremely good analysis of the released sequences. I wish, as does the good Doctor, that the WHO and others would release sequence data to the world as soon as it becomes available.

Strange that I have not seen him post on sites that he usually visits.

Originally posted by Vaak
[Apparently tests for H5N1 in birds in the village of Kubu Sembelang have all come back negative!
It will be very interessting to see the further results of the ongoing studies.

I'll say it would be interesting! If it wasn't H5N1 that killed these people then what was it? It took out a pretty good sized group of the family. What else has a mortality rate this high and IS transmitable between humans? Might be worse than H5N1 if it's something we haven't got a clue about.

The reports about this case are somewhat confusing. I imagine it must be very difficult to track these cases down especially in these little, for lack of a better word, third world villages (the villagers think it's black magic not avian flu).

But it sounds like there was potentially a three person chain of infections... first time ever which is what makes this so scary. Others in the family were infected as well, but the three people were a father, Dowes Ginting, his sister, Puji, and his son.

Inspectors feel Puji may have been infected from the market she works in. However they could not find the source bird or animal that may have infected her. They also feel Dowes' son contracted it from Puji and then passed it on to Dowes. Out of the three, it sounds like Dowes was the only one confirmed to have avian flu and he evaded investigators for three days beforehand.

To confuse things more, none of the birds in the village tested were carrying the virus.

Another interesting twist is that it sounds like only blood relatives contracted the disease, not spouses. Interesting...

[edit on 26-5-2006 by mecheng]

[edit on 26-5-2006 by mecheng]

So was it bird flu or not? WHO now has directed the makers of Tamiflu to start stockpiling based on this cluster it seems.

my.earthlink.net.../4477cec0_3ca6_1552620060527990024976

Six of the seven members of an extended Indonesian family who caught bird flu have died, the most recent on Monday. An eighth family member who died was buried before tests could be done, but she was considered to be among those infected with bird flu.

The WHO has stressed the virus has not mutated into a version easily passed between people or shown any sign of spreading outside the family - all blood relatives who had very close contact with each other.

First it was, then it wasn't, now it is but it's not a version easily passed since it hasn't spread outside the family? It really doesn't sound like we're getting the straight story here.

Yep apparently Roche the makers of Tamiflu have been put on Alert www.medicalnewstoday.com...

Yes, that's right, Roche has been told to have a stockpile ready to send to indonesia on a moments notice. They have also been told to begin boosting the global supply aswell. Also, more tests have come back confirming it is H5N1. However it has not mutated yet, which is good.

It also appears that the outbreak only spread to blood relatives. Could this mean that some people are genetically succeptable to bird flu? If this is the case then it possible that the bird flu is geneticlly engineered?

Source: www.ctv.ca...

[edit on 28-5-2006 by DSO]

So, has anything been confirmed yet? Does anyone have new info?

Another little girl from Indonesia died today from the bird flu.

Last year, most of the people who got infected, were from Vietnam but this year, so far, there hasn't been any cases. Now it seems like Indonesia is going to be hit the most w/ the bird flu this year.

You know, this is really odd & I can't find it in the online version, but I swear I read an article yesterday in the Daytona News Journal that said someone is dying from Avian Flu every 2 - 3 days in Indonesia, and that the deaths have exceeded the rate in Vietnam now.

Could it be this high?

Relentless, I found this story on MSN. It maybe the story you are talking about.

Bird flu explodes among humans in Indonesia
Hard-hit nation reports new death every 2 1/2 days in May

Updated: 4:55 p.m. CT May 31, 2006
JAKARTA, Indonesia - Indonesia averaged one human bird flu death every 2 1/2 days in May, putting it on pace to soon surpass Vietnam as the world's hardest-hit country.

The latest death, announced Wednesday, was a 15-year-old boy whose preliminary tests were positive for the H5N1 virus. It comes as international health officials express growing frustration that they must fight Indonesia's bureaucracy as well as the disease.

The rest of the story;
Link www.msnbc.msn.com...

That's it Neo - Big Thanks!

Now, isn't this death rate shocking anyone? Especially considering how quiet this forum is, it had seemed to me that the avian flu was quieting down. But one human death every 2.5 days in Indonesia seems like cause for concern. I know there are a lot of extenuating circumstances (remote areas, large domestic chicken exposure) compared to more developed nations, but I really was under the impression this was being contained in Indonesia and this report strikes me as otherwise. It strikes me as it has "taken hold".

So what is going on? With a death rate of this level it seems by now there should be a lot more information being released, especially regarding confirmation that this is still not human to human transmission if that is true.

I'm not at all well informed regarding viral etiology or epidemiology, and even less so regarding genetics. I was just wondering if anyone who knows more than the average layperson could confirm whether, after having adapted to an initial human host, it's typical or not for an influenza virus (or any virus) to have a high affinity for genetically similar/related hosts as opposed to those who are unrelated.

I’m just curious as to whether this is to be expected, or if there might be a genetic predisposition of some kind unique to this family, or others like it.

Thanks.