Today is May 22nd 2006- 2:15 a.m., page 6

Originally posted by RiotComing
Therefore if nothing happens, the reasoning is completely understandable.

Sounds like the workings of a good hoax, if you ask me. Didn't Titor say that a civil war may not happen in summer of 2005 (among other events) because of the divergence in our timelines? Always give yourself an out, that's the number one rule for making a good hoax. I bet by the end of the year the froggy'll have a book out about the whole thing. It's all just a scam to make money.

but something already has crashed into the ocean bed off the South African coastline. There could be more to come, also bear in mind it can only take a relatively tiny fragment to trigger a mega-tsunami - Julien claims it may only be the size of a truck.

Firstly, see my explanation of what that impact could have been here.

Secondly, a chunk of comet the size of a truck wouldn't make it to the ground. The stresses of atmospheric entry would simply melt it into oblivion. If something were to impact, it would no doubt be about the size of a large pumpkin (and I don't mean those freak competition ones that are the size of trucks

) at best, which would cause damage in the few square feet around it. What I mean is, not much.

Now, check this here out... Using the cleverly created Impact Effects Calculator you can come to some basic conclusions as to what would happen.

I'll show you how I filled out the form.

Distance from impact: 300 miles (should it impact in the ocean, that's fairly close to a coast)
Projectile diameter: 20 ft (that should make it about the size of a truck)
Projectile density: 1000 kg/m^3 (the density of ice, or a comet)
Impact velocity: 51 km/s (the typical impact velocity of a comet)
Impact angle: 45 degrees (the most probable angle of impact)
Target is water at a depth of 2000 feet

Calculating the effects gives these results

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 1.54 x 1014 Joules = 0.37 x 10-1 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 8.7 years

Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 98200 meters = 322000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 50000 meters = 164000 ft
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 44.8 km/s = 27.8 miles/s
The energy of the airburst is 3.53 x 1013 Joules = 0.84 x 10-2 MegaTons.
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Air Blast:
The air blast at this location would not be noticed. (The overpressure is less than 1 Pa)

Oops. Did I just debunk the froggy again? Damn you science and logic! Damn you! Funny thing is, did you notice how often that something like that enters the Earth's atmosphere? On average once every 8.7 years!

Hell, let's do it again. Doubling the size of the object to 40 ft in diameter, and with the maximum velocities. Plus, let's take it a step denser. Let's see what happens now!

Distance from impact: 300 miles (should it impact in the ocean, that's fairly close to a coast)
Projectile diameter: 40 ft
Projectile density: 1500 kg/m^3 (the density of porous rock)
Impact velocity: 72 km/s (the maximum velocity anything could have if it orbits the Sun)
Impact angle: 45 degrees (the most probable angle of impact)
Target is water at a depth of 2000 feet

Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 3.69 x 1015 Joules = 881.35 KiloTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth is 99.8 years

Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 95600 meters = 314000 ft
The projectile bursts into a cloud of fragments at an altitude of 36100 meters = 118000 ft
The residual velocity of the projectile fragments after the burst is 56 km/s = 34.8 miles/s
The energy of the airburst is 1.45 x 1015 Joules = 0.35 x 100 MegaTons.
No crater is formed, although large fragments may strike the surface.

Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.

Air Blast:
The air blast at this location would not be noticed. (The overpressure is less than 1 Pa)

CRAP! I did it again!! Now are you starting to believe the side of reason? I mean, you're here to deny ignorance, right? So why listen to some guy with very little knowledge and hands on experience with astronomy over someone who has years of knowledge and experience?

[edit on 5/22/2006 by cmdrkeenkid]

[edit on 5/22/2006 by cmdrkeenkid]