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Al Qaida worries about losing the initiative.

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posted on May, 9 2006 @ 09:52 AM

BAGHDAD, Iraq - Al-Qaida in Iraq is concerned about disorganization within its cells in the Baghdad area, with one extremist describing them as simply a "daily annoyance" to the Iraqi government, according to documents released Monday by the U.S. military.

What I tell ya, they can do this and that, but they can't achieve what they wanted.

In one document as released by the U.S., an unidentified al-Qaida member writes that the influence and power of Iraq's Shiite majority cannot be taken lightly, especially in Baghdad, "particularly when the power of the ministries of Interior and Defense is given to them, compared to the power of the mujahedeen" in the city.

The document says that the Baghdad cells are capable of only "hit and run" operations, leading the public to conclude that "the Shiites are stronger in Baghdad and nearer to controlling it, while the mujahedeen ... are not considered more than a daily annoyance to the Shiite government."

Release of the documents appears part of a U.S. campaign to deflate the image of al-Qaida in Iraq and its leader, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. The documents were released four days after the U.S. military aired what it said were clips cut from a previously released al-Qaida in Iraq video which showed a bumbling al-Zarqawi fumbling with an unfamiliar, American-made machine gun.

The version of the tape posted on the Web showed al-Zarqawi as a confident, skilled warrior.

Focusing on Baghdad, as explained by the strategy document, would force the U.S. military to shift resources there and allow militants to regroup in their traditional bases, including Anbar province, which includes the cities of Fallujah and Ramadi. It also reiterates al-Zarqawi's long-stated goal of targeting the country's majority Shiites.

But the strategy document complains that "the strength of the brothers in Baghdad" is based mostly on car bombs and "groups of assassins lacking any organized military capabilities."

The writer complains that the Americans and the Iraqi government forces "were able to absorb our painful blows," raise new recruits and "take control of Baghdad as well as other areas, one after the other."

"This is why every year is worse than the previous year, as far as the mujahedeen's control and influence over Baghdad," the document said.

It also charged that the major Sunni groups — the Iraqi Islamic Party and the clerical Association of Muslim Scholars — have "anesthetized" the Sunni population. It warned that "we will have a problem" if the government succeeds in raising all-Sunni army units.

Insurgents have recently targeted recruits from the first all-Sunni unit, killing at least seven of them in two separate attacks last week.

"Either we let them go beyond the limits, or fight them and risk inciting the Sunnis against us through the channels of the party and the association," the document says.

It looks like the terrorists and insurgents may shift tactics since they been shifting tactics since the war, since they are flexible, forcing the U.S. to shift resources to protect Baghdad while easing the pressure on the insurgents home base in Anbar province is the most logical choice since the offense is the best defense. They have suffered heavy casualties fighting the Marines in the Anbar province, especially losing their favorite city Fallujah as a symbol of their resistance. Now Ramadi is the primary base I would say since I have seen the statistics of number of attacks in and around that city. Its better to attack Ramadi like we attacked Fallujah.

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