Nobody's saying manpower is deterministic in wars today.
And I'm not trying to turn this into US vs. China thread. I'm aying that today China has the ability to invade taiwan, while simultaneously allowing
safe passage to well equipped troops from the mainland across the straits.
The key is the ability provide safe passage to these troops and mechanised units crossing the straits. How does one do that?
Prevent any surface fleet/carrier getting close enough by fielding PLANAF SU30MKKs/SU27s/Jh-7s/Jh-8s with long range AshCMs. Provide suffiecient air
cover to these a/c(which have enough BVR capability with the likes of the SD10 and the R-77)with the upgraded J-7s that get raw radar data feed from
their more advanced companions(don't know if they can but its common sense so presuming they do
Thus enabling a enabling a tight CAP at a standoff distance of 200km - 300km.
These a/c can be rotated 24/7 by replacements and air - refueling, again out of the range of enemy fire.
Then PLAN has a huge sub fleet and if used efficiently could provide sufficient littoral operations in the straits. The more advanced kilos and
surface ships would give a layered defense against USN ASW and USN SSNs.
At the same time the PLAAF/PLA would be assigned the task of preventing the US from opening new fronts that would force the chinese to withdraw from
The only sureshot way for the US would be to commit the entire PACCOM to the cause and try to wear the chinese out, i.e. not let them get sufficient
forces on the island in the first place. If that were to fail(and I've provided enough evidence of a PLAN/PLANAF layered defence capable of doing
that ) there would be only one option:
Engage the chinese in land combat on the island(thus causing immense collateral damage) while targeting supply routes from the mainland with stealth
and stand-off long range LACMs. That would be viewwd as an escalation, and would force the chinese into sending subs out to try and maime a carrier
or two.Also its would IMO force them take out a more 'offensive' stance rather than a defensive one. I.e. that layered defensive becoming a more of
a offense-defense system with the PLAAF getting more involved in defensive ops and the PLANAF taking on an offensive role.
It would be a long drawn out affair with the winner being the one able to hold out longer and force the opposition into a rethink of its objectives.
Nukes over taiwan are
not an option for either side.
I'm a little uninformed about PLAN/PLANAF ASW capabilities and that could be the key to this all.Will get back on that.
Here the thread I as talking about:
Can China Invade Taiwan
It goes everywhere(Like TCrowne observes right at the end) but it is most certainly one of ATS's most prized possessions. Its an ATSopedia on the
EDIT: That heavily fortfied beachhead is a no brainer for the chinese missile forces.
600+(last I counted) missiles just solely for the pupose of neutralising Taiwanese defences.
"One CSG stopping the chinese"... ???!