Originally posted by Aimless Searcher
Can someone clarify for me why the drastic differences are there? Use simple words, please...![]()
As it breaks up more and more, the orbit becomes more erratic in its orbit. The orbit also takes awhile to track, and isn't an instant known thing. As Regenmacher stated above...
The longshot and least likely distance is 0.00010 AU.
Odds: N-sigma of 3 means a 99.7% chance the true miss distance will be greater than the minimum miss distance.
The most likely is the Nominal Miss Distance at 33.7 LD/0.0867 AU. Give them some more time to get a fix on 3-BD and that wide variance will narrow.
Originally posted by firebat
Anyways, do we have until the 25th?
Well, the fragments that are going by on the 25th will be farther away. The 3-BD fragment is coming the closest, and that's on the 11th.




).