73p/schwassmann-wachmann 3, page 6
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reply posted on 6-5-2006 @ 12:58 AM by Aimless Searcher
As it breaks up more and more, the orbit becomes more erratic in its orbit. The orbit also takes awhile to track, and isn't an instant known thing. As Regenmacher stated above...

So, the pieces sort of scatter, but follow the original flight path (if I can call it that) because it's like a shotgun shell impetus...the smaller pieces will travel in the same direction of the initial shot, although spread out over time.

While I don't shoot often, I understand trajectories somewhat. This is why it's most likely not going to strike us...because of the original trajectory, right?

However, you stated that the orbit becomes more erratic over time and with additional pieces fracturing off. While I've never heard of a trajectory going so far back as to hit the original shooter, that distance is far smaller than what we're talking about here.

What would the factors be, then, to "re-direct" the debris (broken fragments) into our atmosphere? Gravity? Forward movement/momentum? Speed and perihelion (I'm not even sure what that means, but it sounds good...LOL).

And if the closest pass will be fragment B, which is likely around the 11th of May, and it's already the 5th, when do you figure "they" will know something a bit more concrete?

Sorry for all the questions...and I really appreciate your earlier answer. Thanks! I'm just really curious about all this. I'm generally prepared for most possible stuff (I live in eq country), so I'm not panicked about this whatsoever...just simply trying to understand something which apparently doesn't happen all too often.

Thanks again for any response!

Regards-
Aimless


reply posted on 9-5-2006 @ 02:35 PM by Macrento
This might or might not be irrelevant. Not for me to say. NOTE: # 1 was discovered about three years before # 3.

Going over some old notes recently I found a passage I’d forgotten about. It’s from an article titled “Saturn –Riddle of the Rings” that appeared in the Nat’l Geographic magazine (July 1981, p. 28), and it says, “One comet known as Schwassmann-Wachmann 1, whose orbit keeps it between Jupiter and Saturn, periodically explodes for no known reason. Perhaps something sparks a pocket of unstable gas within.” The full name is "29p/Schwassmann-Wachmann 1".

The reason they had for bringing up that matter in an article about Saturn is too involved to go into. It had to do with the idea that the moons of Saturn, while not geologically active, could be chemically active, which implies chemical volcanism, with explosions of gas and dust like that comet’s, rather than our kind, arising from a molten interior and sliding tectonic plates.

Moreover, ten years later, on Feb. 12, 1991, a team of Belgian astronomers noticed on a receding Comet Halley (last approach: 1985-86), which was already between Saturn and Uranus, a huge eruption that increased its luminosity about a thousandfold. By then it was tailless once again, of course, and a mere speck of light. A big cloud burst forth.

At that distance from the Sun comets have a temperature of about minus 200 degrees Cent., which made it hard to come up with an explanation. The two most plausible ones: 1) that it had collided with a meteoroid, and, more likely, 2) that a pocket of carbon monoxide (CO), a compound that can vaporize at very low temperatures, exploded under the surface.

Other sources say it’s carbon dioxide (CO2) ice and methane (CH4) ice that are involved, that the explosions are due to the solar radiation heating and vaporizing these ice deposits, and that consequently very few comets at distances greater than six astronomical units (150 million km. x 6) display this kind of activity.

…so maybe here’s an additional reason for the eventual demise of a comet, apart from its losing a lot of matter every time a star heats it up: fitful bursts.

…and a few questions for the pros: how many comets have been caught showing these bursts, when was this first seen, and can they be strong enough to destroy the comet instantly or a few hours later?
*



reply posted on 10-5-2006 @ 12:13 PM by dbates
Well, it's one day out from passing and I'm amused that NASA still has the BD fragment listed as .04 LD as a minimum and the nominal hasn't changed either. So it's 7 million miles out or 8 thousand miles. Or anywhere in between. Is the trajectory that erratic or do they just not update their site that often?

UPDATE: To add to the fun NEO 2006 JY26 passes through the same area today at 1.1 LD and 2006 HC2 is moving through at 38 LD. I wonder if this could have any effect on the coment fragments. I couldn't help but notice that the nominal and minimal distances on these objects are really close. Obviously they are dumbfounded on what the comet fragments are going to do.


[edit on 10-5-2006 by dbates]
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