Tornado's=Intense Start to Hurricane Seasion

www.livescience.com...

There have been 445 tornado's as of April 7 recorded for this years seasion. This is in sharp contrast to the 96 reported by April 3 of last year.
This seems the result of the mild and dry winter resulting in warm water tempretures in the gulf.
Since hurricane intensity depends on water tempreture, and these tempretures seem to be warmer than usual this year, wouldn't this have the possible effect of more intense hurricane development over these warmer than ususal water tempretures?

I hope that this doesn't mean that we will be facing another year of "category five" hurricanes in the Caribbean. That would certainly put a damper on my plans. My wife and I are booked for a seven-day cruise in the Caribbean beginning October 15th (I have to add that I must have the best in-laws in the world. My wife's folks are treating us to this dream vacation). I shudder to think about how much gravol one would have to take to counteract the rough seas that a cruise liner would face from a major hurricane. Would three gravol tablets help deal with the nausea that a "Poseidon Adventure" scenario cause?

[edit on 4/9/2006 by benevolent tyrant]

We did not have any deaths, but MUCH destruction in and around Atlanta, and they all came about 4:00 to 5:00 AM.Thank G-d for good weathermen.
Some of the people said that the winds, not the tornadoes sounded like the screams of hell.
We do not have any business concerned damage in this area before.
Any of you who do not pray or meditate, please do your communications to the Universe, as we are IN for an unprecedented year.
We are starting into a 'cannot be reversed' years of destruction.

Originally posted by amisn1957
Since hurricane intensity depends on water tempreture, and these tempretures , wouldn't this have the possible effect of more intense hurricane development over these warmer than ususal water tempretures?

I would like to know how you came to the conclusion that this year's active tornado season equates to an intense start to the coming hurricane season?

Seem to be warmer than usual this year? Would indicate you did not compare SST's from this year to last. So what information are you basing your decision on?






[edit on 9-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

I based this conclusion on the statement in a release by NOAA that due to the mild winter in the southern and central U.S. the gulf waters remained warmer than usual.
This release may be found here:

www.noaanews.noaa.gov...

Now granted one does know whether to believe everything, or for that matter anything, the government may choose to tell us. I tried to find some historical information on SST, but it seems to be rather elusive. Thus this statement from NOAA is the basis for this theory.
Now if one could find some historical SST data on the gulf to show that tempretures are not warmer than previous years, then one would have to wonder why NOAA chose to make this statement to explain recent events.

benevolent tyrant
Dont worry, I went on a cruise in the carribean, and we got 2 extra days at sea because of it.. more of a good thing the captain will take great lengths to avoid rough seas.

For those interested in Regenmacher's chart showing tornado activity it is interesting to note that the first weather radar went online in 1949. A few years later you see a jump in tornados. The early 1990's saw the deployment of the next generation weather radar systems. Again another jump in tornados. I think this is a good example of how technology and reporting can give an appearance of change. As radar coverage increased and the technology increased so did the number of reported tornados.

Hurricans form off the coast of west africa, not the gulf of mexico. Is the water there unseasonably warm?

Though note, a hurrican that does form could travel to the US and gain strength in the carribean and gulf. So if its normal off the coast of africa, then there might be a normal number of hurricanes, but some of them might be stronger than usual because of the gulf.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Hurricans form off the coast of west africa, not the gulf of mexico. Is the water there unseasonably warm?

Unless I am reading your statement wrong it would be incorrect. They can and do form in the Gulf of Mexico. They can and do form in the Caribbean and in the western Atlantic. Later in the season (like mid August) they start forming off the coast of Africa. You could say on average that storm development goes from west to east as the season progresses through the end of September. Then it moves from east back to west as the hurricane season moves to an end.

What actually causes a tornado?

I found this explanation rather interesting...

"Tornadoes are caused when a cloud of the right size precipitates rapidly releasing heat, which causes it to rise, and creates a vacuum under it. Air rushing under it creates the vortex.

It is known that a sudden drop in air pressure precedes tornadoes. The pressure drop is caused by a cloud near the ground rising rapidly creating a partial vacuum below it. The vacuum seems to be quite noticeable, as persons who were near tornadoes often mention it.

Precipitation releases as much heat as evaporation absorbs. But precipitation tends to be much faster than evaporation. So a very large amount of heat is released when a cloud precipitates.

Heat of course causes air to rise. When a cloud near the ground rises, it creates a partial vacuum under it."

Source: nov55.com...

Ah, well, I stand corrected then, I thought it was just off of africa. Thanks.

[edit on 10-4-2006 by Nygdan]

Originally posted by acura_el2000
benevolent tyrant
Don't worry, I went on a cruise in the Caribbean, and we got 2 extra days at sea because of it.. more of a good thing

the captain will take great lengths to avoid rough seas.

Thanks acura.....I'm looking forward to this cruise with my wife and I'd hate to be in the middle of a hurricane. I've read up a little on the cruises and how they do go to great lengths to avoid rough waters and bad weather. I really hadn't realized how much latitude a captain of one of these liners actually has in determining their course. They really can do a lot. Much like pilots who can fly over storms or bad weather, the ships -- using rather sophisticated weather charts -- can go around storms and still maintain their schedules.

Until my very basic research into the matter, I had actually thought that the cruise liners maintained a set course and schedule as if they were some sort of giant transit bus. I envisioned a 'Ralph Kramden at the wheel of a big old bus hustling to make the next stop on time. Man I couldn't be further from the truth.

And, you're right, typically if the cruise liner does have to deal with heavy weather, passengers are often compensated with extra days or 'deep discounts' or upgrades on their next cruise. So, as far as I can tell, it's a pretty good situation. Even if I do hit a storm, I'll just hunker down in the ship's casino, sip a few 'pops' and play a few hands of Texas Hold 'em.

Originally posted by Nygdan
Ah, well, I stand corrected then, I thought it was just off of africa.

Maybe the word is Tropical waves, which form off the coast of Africa and those waves can develop into tropical storms or hurricanes.

Originally posted by Indy
As radar coverage increased and the technology increased so did the number of reported tornados.

Include this factor also:

Was tornado forecasting once banned in the U.S.? Yes. Before 1950, at various stages of development of the Weather Bureau, the use of the word "tornado" in forecasts was at times strongly discouraged and at other times forbidden, because of a fear that predicting tornadoes may cause panic.

__________________________


Sea surface temperature comparison chart made from data at AOML/NOAA
Current 12 week animation of SST's in the Atlantic/Gulf

As for tornado volume directly indicating a strong start to the hurricane season, I haven't seen the data that would support that hypothesis. 2005 was below average tornadic activity, while we had a recorded breaking tropical season, which would indicate that hypothesis is false.

Monthly Tornado Statistics with comparison chart -SPC

Tornado Watch Performance at SPC
Basic objective verification, 1985-1997.


Global Warming and recent hurricane activity -UCAR

Largest outbreak of tornadoes

The Super Outbreak, in which 148 tornadoes affected 13 states and one Canadian province on April 3 - 4, 1974. The outbreak was also an unprecedented producer of large, long-track, and intense tornadoes; 6 F5s and 24 F4s, far and away a record. This outbreak alone produced more significant tornadoes than any other one week period on record.

1974 Hurricane/Tropical Data for Atlantic
11 named storms, 4 of which were hurricanes.


2004 Hurricane/Tropical Data for Atlantic
17 named storms, 8 of which were hurricanes.





•Repeat of '05 hurricane season not likely
•Repeat of '05 storm season unlikely, says forecaster

Impacts Of ENSO On United States Tornadic Activity -COAPS

ENSO to date:


Synopsis: La Niña conditions are expected to continue during the next 1-3 months.

Conclusion: Tornadic activity is but one climate variable and a high number of tornadoes is not in direct correlation or would indicate an intense start to this year's hurricane season. Atlantic hurricane activity is reduced during El Niño and increased during La Niña, so look at ENSO factors as a precursor for the upcoming tropical season. We are currently approaching a nuetral ENSO phase.

Another factor to ponder, since all weather starts at the sun:
Solar Minimum has Arrived

Out of the box weather thought:

Equation:
Sunspots => Solar Flares => Magnetic Field Shift => Shifting Ocean and Jet Stream Currents => Extreme Weather and Human Disruption.

[edit on 10-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

Good post Regenmacher. I don't see any link between tornado activity and hurricane activity with the exception of ones produced at the time of a landfalling storm.

Originally posted by Indy
I don't see any link between tornado activity and hurricane activity with the exception of ones produced at the time of a landfalling storm.

Yeah, more hurricanes could produce more tornados, but I haven't seen the reverse to be true.

Tornado activity vents surface heat/exothermic energy into the upper atmosphere and that could decrease future cyclogenesis potential, which would be the exact opposite of the intial hypothesis.


[edit on 10-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

I'm curious what you think about the theory (one of them perhaps) of how a tornado forms. I've seen demonstrations where they show air moving at two different directions at two different levels of the atmosphere which causes a rotating column of air. Then you need a lifting mechanism to get the column to tilt which creates the tornado. To me it just sounds too fancy. I would think the columns of air would be far too unstable to move like that and if you had enough lift to tilt the columns then you'd have enough lift to break up the circulation. I imagine the formation being much like it is with a hurricane and that you need the air going two different directions in order to evacuate the rising air in the center of the circulation. The better the outflow the better the tornadic development. Without the evacuation of the rising air the system will basically clog up and the storm (tornado) will die out. What are your thoughts on this?

Originally posted by Indy
What are your thoughts on this?

Are you saying a tornado's vortex starts vertically? What about temperature advection and differentials? Guess I am sort of lost on the comparison with a hurricane, since a tornado doesn't need an easterly wave, the ICTZ or be over water. A tornado can also rotate clockwise and usually is started by an RFD.



[edit on 11-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

Yes I'm saying it is a verticle column of rotating air. I think it is easier to see in a large single cell as the definition of the storm doesn't get lost in a line. Look at the storms and you will see large areas rotating. You don't see storms rotating in a 45 degree angle which would be what you'd expect with the idea that a tornado is started by a horizontal column of rotating air that was in the process of tilting. There is just no evidence to support that theory. Columns of rotating air are too fragile. You see it in hurricanes when even the slightest bit of sheer can disrupt the circulation. So its unlikely that something could turn a horizontal column verticle without there being evidence of this taking place (storms rotating at a significant angle). What you do see however is fully rotating storms. And much like with a hurricane you get air at the surface pulled in to the circulation. One of the big differences is that the circulation of a tornado is much tighter than that of a hurricane which allows for the storm to wrap up tighter. And like a hurricane you need a way to evacuate the rising air. This is there the wind change aloft comes in. You need that change to take the rising air away from the storm. If the wind aloft is going the same direction as the wind below things get backed up like in a drain.

I have seen alot of video and alot of pics but I've never seen this process of turning a horizontal column of air verticle. However I have seen entire storms rotating and a tornado forming out of this rotating storm.

Then again it is possible that tornados form both ways and that is why you get the different style of storms.

Perhaps this kind of tornado...
www.silverliningtours.com...

forms from the type of scenario I describe. And this kind...

mypage.bluewin.ch...
...the more classic rope forms the other way. Those are two completely different style of tornados. But my thing is that there is no video evidence that supports the tilting of a column of air while there is evidence to support entire storms rotating.

Sorry it took so long. I wanted to check into tornadogenesis better and see some visuals. My experience is limited, cause we don't get many twisters down here in the Sonoran desert.

I would agree with the idea that the initial vortex doesn't have to be a horizontal column of air that gets bent upward from a rising updraft or pinched into a U-shape from a downdraft. The newest hypothesis is a rear flank drowndraft (RFD) from a hook echo shoots down moist hot air and this force squeezes/shoots up the surface air and that upward rising air streams form multiple vortices. (Fast rising air tends to corkscrew, like how a dust devil forms.) These invisible vortices then eventually join togther to form the condensation funnel aka the tornado.


Vortex forms after RFD pushes down.


Classic hook echo on doppler

Here's some more information and shows a computer model siumulation of a tornado.

Hunt for the Supertwister
A close collaboration between NCSA visualization experts and atmospheric researchers sheds new light on the formation of the most powerful, dangerous tornadoes

Wicker developed a model called NCOMMAS (NSSL Collaborative Model for Multiscale Atmospheric Simulation) to computationally simulate thunderstorms and their associated tornadoes. NCOMMAS is based upon an earlier model developed by Wilhelmson.

Thanks for bringing it up.

Here's a new avatar for ya.























[edit on 12-4-2006 by Regenmacher]

Hey thanks for the avatar. I love it

The hypothesis on the RFD in a mesocyclone does make sense. If it were purely based on the rotation of the cell you'd likely have the tornado forming in the middle of the storm. The fact the vortex forms to the rear of the storm would suggest that the RFD has something to do with the development in this type of storm.