posted on Apr, 5 2006 @ 09:06 AM
(Whatever is mentioned here has nothing to do with any ‘insider’ info or so called Pentagon sources. The thoughts are entirely mine)
Probable options and strike plans of the US are:
Option 1 Limited conventional strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities and related command, control and communications assets in order to
prevent it from achieving nuclear weapons production status, and degrading it’s potential nuclear capability, thereby setting the program back by10
to 15 years.
Option 2 Effect regime change and install a democratic pro-west government in Tehran.
Option 2 is not a viable course of action because:
1. US Forces are far too stretched at present to launch a protracted war of attrition in Iran. A three-to-one combat ratio at the areas of decision
isn’t feasible at this juncture.
2. Therefore the need to mobilize additional combat resources from NATO and other ‘Allies’. This may not be possible without UN approval, which
is extremely doubtful.
3. May then require thinning out of US Forces from Japan and South Korea, which may result in strategic imbalance in the region.
4. US Congress may not approve this option because of unforeseen variables and the enormous human and monitory costs involved, keeping the Iraq
debacle in mind.
5. An all out offensive involving ground forces will require massive logistic support and adequate staging areas in Iraq and other neighboring
countries, which will probably be a non-starter due to the current geopolitical situation.
Therefore, Option 1 is the likely course of action.
A probable outline plan for a limited offensive involving preponderance of air power is:
Phase 1. Pre-emptive air strikes on Iran's airfields and SAM missile sites to render their air force/missiles inoperable and gain complete air
This in conjunction with destruction of surface-to-surface missiles sites and their command, control and communication centers to prevent riposte
Phase 2. Destroy Iranian nuclear capability from the air, aided by limited covert special ops.
Phase 3. To contain Islamist backlash, politically, diplomatically and militarily. (Over a period of time).
(The ‘nitty gritties’ of this offensive including air, land and naval assets of the US and Israel will run into several pages and therefore not
being elucidated here.)
Being a lightning pre-emptive strike, the first two phases will probably end not later than D plus 10 hours.
Phase 3 will be protracted and will not end any time soon!
In all probability, D Day would come before the weather gets too hot and dusty. Sandstorms are an impediment. But that’s cutting it a bit fine. The
ware withal is probably not in place yet.
So, Oct to Feb would be a good time.
> Islamist backlash including terror strikes on US economic assets around the world and the US mainland.
> Blocking the Straits of Hormuz for Western shipping resulting in cutting of oil supplies.
> Price of oil shoots up to over $100 a barrel effecting world economy in the long term.
> Shia backlash against US forces in Iraq graduating into a full-scale civil war.
> US / NATO re-enforcements rushed to Iraq to contain the situation, further escalating the cycle of violence.
It would be interesting to get some more likely plans from you all. Then lets see who hits the bulls eye!
[edit on 5-4-2006 by mikesingh]