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Key quote "Scientific modelling suggests that it may only take 2-3 weeks from the virus first entering the UK to its being widespread," - Cabinet Office paper
Story in full THE death toll from a bird flu pandemic in Britain could be more than 700,000, according to a confidential government report seen by The Scotsman.
Originally posted by watch_the_rocks
Mmm, yes, well, thinking it could travel human-to-human is the main point. If it can, they're all screwed. 700, 000 easy. That virus is some bad stuff.
But if it cannot, and can only be passed on through airbourne life to make major jumps from place to place, then the number will be a lot less, around the order of 20, 000 people [guestimate].
Virologists know (H5N1) infection occurs through contact with blood, feces and other body fluids, and WHO officials recently reiterated the flu virus is also airborne, posing even a greater threat than AIDS.
Cheng said there may be other cases in which people became infected through human-to-human transmission, but there isn't enough evidence to prove it. There may also be many less severely ill people going unnoticed.
Birds spread the disease through droppings and other secretions, which often contaminate shared feed and water. Domesticated birds show a sudden decline in egg production a few days after they contract the illness; other symptoms include nasal discharge, ...severe internal bleeding, organ damage, and sudden death.
(H5N1), spread through bird feces, saliva and infected water... "You have to test the birds and test the water," Fair said. "If you find it in a lake, influenzas can hang around for a month. Some studies have shown it staying over 200 days." ...The longer the disease remains in the water, the more likely it is to find other host species, Fair said.
A German scientist said Tuesday the entry of faeces from infected poultry into the food chain via fish was a likely cause of the global spread of bird flu - and not migrating wild birds.
'We are moving away from the assumption that migrating birds are the cause,' said Josef H. Reichholf, a zoology professor at Munich's Technical University, in a comment published by the newspaper Die Welt.
'We will have to live with bird flu in the future,' said Reichholf, adding: 'Perhaps we already have been for years and just didn't know it because ...dead birds ...were not tested.'
H5N1 9A ...severely attacks fish with particular virulence. The fish bones turn soft...
July, 2004: We report the first case of avian influenza in a patient with fever and diarrhea but no respiratory symptoms. Avian influenza should be included in the differential diagnosis for patients with predominantly gastrointestinal symptoms, particularly if they have a history of exposure to poultry.