Wolf,

A comet that has a gas eruption could change it's course, but the change would be so slight that it would take years to detect the deviation. A gas disruption at this point will not cause any of those fragments to veer into the earth.

However, what is happening is that more fragments are being found further away from where the orbit of the original comet was. These fragments are much smaller than the parts that are closest to the original orbit. There is a decent possibility of an incredible meteor shower from this comet this May or June, but because the earth will be so far from the original orbit of the comet, the fragments are likely to be almost entirely too small to penetrate the earth's atmosphere.

Keep in mind that most anything smaller than a car has very little chance of striking the earth, especially. It would have to enter the earth's atmosphere near to perpendicular to the ground. Now fireballs and upper atmosphere explosions from entering projectiles are something to watch for. Also, it would be a great month to observe the Moon. The moon has no atmosphere to burn up metoers with, so we could witness some great impacts there.

Apart from the astronomical aspects of this which are great fun to witness, the possibility that this comet could mark the beginning of the end is something that should be considered. Only time will tell. I am of the mind that this is not that comet, but that there will be another similar to this one that will.

The first of the comet fragments is 28 million miles today and closing at a rate of about 900,000 miles per day.

Originally posted by davenman
The first of the comet fragments is 28 million miles today and closing at a rate of about 900,000 miles per day.

So it's moved away? Because it was orginally projected to come 6 million miles away... Did you mean 2.8 million, maybe? Still though, that's nothing to worry about as far as impacts go.

I mean that today the first of the fragments are currently 28 million miles from Earth. Tomorrow the fragments will be about 900,000 miles closer.

In 3-4 weeks, one or two should be visible to the naked eye. In 6 weeks, the possibility of meteor showers from the comet debris comes into play. There is a possibilty that some of our satellites could get knocked out by meteors, especially the satellite SOHO. From May 21-25 there may be debris between the Earth and Sun that would make SOHO images quite interesting if it survives it.

Most of this is just prediction on my part, so you probably won't read anything about this anywhere else...at least not for a couple of weeks

Snafu,

DearWife has done some amount of homework on this issue. It would appear that this block of ice did not fall from any aircraft. This means that one should examine other possibilities. I, for one, would not rule out a comet fragment. I would rule out a fragment from this comet 73P that is the focus of this discussion.

Speaking of such, 2 of the fragments of 73P, parts B & C, should become visible to binoculars in about 10 days or so when the moon doesn't come up until after midnight.

The fragments are moving up the east side of the constellation Bootes. I saw the fragments the other night through a 12" telescope the other night and now I'm looking forward to seeing them through binoculars.

Macrento- Its not odd. People dont pay attention to this. They should. I have posted that story repeatedly and everyone thinks its a lie.

At least you and i are paying attention!

Snafu,

Have you read the entire pdf file? As for me, i got it directly from Coast to Coast. You may think its silly, but i dont.
I think its worth looking at given the fact that all kinds of strange things are happening in our atmosphere, hurricanes inland, dust storms and the like.

So, dont dismiss us as nuts, please.

Of welcoming noobs like me today than having a meteor destroy us all in may! lol. i'll keep track, but not very concerned. Now wouldn't it be a great stunt for ratings if it came here, and Bush unveiled some new weapon to destroy the meteor?

Originally posted by dgtempe
Snafu,

Have you read the entire pdf file? As for me, i got it directly from Coast to Coast. You may think its silly, but i dont.
I think its worth looking at given the fact that all kinds of strange things are happening in our atmosphere, hurricanes inland, dust storms and the like.

So, dont dismiss us as nuts, please.

dg, i never said you were nuts nor did i infer in any way that your belief in the possibility of this comet hitting us was wrong. i have obsolutely no idea what this comet is going to do besides what i read on the net. which is exactly my point....this guy is using a job field that has absolutely nothing to do with astronomy to headline his beliefs. as far as i'm concerned, that kind of sensationalism takes away any credibility he might have had.

and by the by, yes i read the entire thing. unlike some people here i dont comment without taking the time to read all the information provided (with the exception of certain 18 page long threads in which case i specifically state that i havent had time to read the whole thing).

I'm aware of all the conventional objections aimed at Julien, like what snafu says about his not being qualified for the task of calculating orbits, as the BadAstronomy website suggests (www.badastronomy.com)...


"(...) [he] says he has tracked (using "NASA simulations" which means he went on the web and poked around with orbital simulators) a fragment of a comet (...)"

..but that's only part of the story: he claims to have access to ET sources that gave him the May 25 date for the collision. You either believe in the ET presence here on Earth, and maybe in other levels of reality, or you don't, but even if you do, you can choose not to trust Julien, either because you think he's an impostor, or psychotic, or because you suspect that his ET acquaintances are of the malevolent sort and are feeding him with disinformation. If you believe the latter, then you can choose to believe that he's a collaborator, or that he's unaware of the fact that he's being used as a disseminator of false information. In the former case etc. etc. etc.

To be discontinued