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NOAA hiding truth about hurricanes, scientists say

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posted on Mar, 29 2006 @ 09:28 AM
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Interesting study here:-

Changes in Tropical Cyclone Number, Duration, and Intensity in a Warming Environment - reported in Science last September. It concludes:-


We deliberately limited this study to the satellite era because of the known biases before this period (28), which means that a comprehensive analysis of longer-period oscillations and trends has not been attempted. There is evidence of a minimum of intense cyclones occurring in the 1970s (11), which could indicate that our observed trend toward more intense cyclones is a reflection of a long-period oscillation. However, the sustained increase over a period of 30 years in the proportion of category 4 and 5 hurricanes indicates that the related oscillation would have to be on a period substantially longer than that observed in previous studies.

We conclude that global data indicate a 30-year trend toward more frequent and intense hurricanes, corroborated by the results of the recent regional assessment (29). This trend is not inconsistent with recent climate model simulations that a doubling of CO2 may increase the frequency of the most intense cyclones (18, 30), although attribution of the 30-year trends to global warming would require a longer global data record and, especially, a deeper understanding of the role of hurricanes in the general circulation of the atmosphere and ocean, even in the present climate state.


As for Atlantic hurricanes - we are at the peak of the AMO and there hasn't been an El Nino for the past couple of years to increase wind shear and thus help reduce the chances of hurricane formations. So all the bnatural cycles have conspired to produce more intense hurricane seasons irrespective of any global warming.


(Edit: because I can never remember the right tags for 'external source' quotes


[edit on 29-3-2006 by Essan]




posted on Mar, 29 2006 @ 01:49 PM
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There's simply not enough historical data to show anything about hurricane cycles. What if there hundred or thousand or 10,000 year cycles? We'd know absolutely nothing about them.

As far as global warming being a cause for more and higher-intensity hurricanes, isn't it true that the same pattern isn't being shown in all tropical cyclone basins as would be expected if this was global warming?



posted on Mar, 29 2006 @ 06:26 PM
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Originally posted by djohnsto77
As far as global warming being a cause for more and higher-intensity hurricanes, isn't it true that the same pattern isn't being shown in all tropical cyclone basins as would be expected if this was global warming?


Predicting the future

The core fundamental is: If thermal energy is increased, then so will storm, meso and synoptic scale systems increase i.e. atmospheric thermodynamics.

Higher SST's increase "cyclogenensis potential". Fluctuations in ENSO, MJO, salinity, sheer, cape, lift, moisture, etc. also factor in and means it's not a homogeneous one ocean fits all earth. Comparing one sea basin's tropical development based on a couple observed variables is way to simplistic, and we wouldn't need to input hundreds of parameters into super computers and spend 1000's of man-hours to forecast weather. i.e. Supercomputer climate model whips up a storm.

Australia's Queensland Hit by Strongest Cyclone in 30 Years
Cyclone points to global warming
Feeling the Heat: The World Wakes Up

The best answer might be in using chaos theory for weather forecasting:


Earth Scientists Use Fractals To Measure And Predict Natural Disasters
Predicting the size, location, and timing of natural hazards is virtually impossible, but now, earth scientists are able to forecast hurricanes, floods, earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, wildfires, and landslides using fractals. A fractal is a mathematical formula of a pattern that repeats over a wide range of size and time scales. These patterns are hidden within more complex systems. A good example of a fractal is the branching system of a river. Small tributaries join to form larger and larger "branches" in the system, but each small piece of the system closely resembles the branching pattern as a whole.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.

The potential for more and greater storms exists and observed data indicates there is an increase in extreme and severe weather phenomena. If in doubt, fall back to the core fundamental until physical laws change.



Weather forecasting is simliar to speculative investing, no model has yet to accurately predict stock or market fluctutations. The trend is your friend, so bet it or forget it. It shall always be that some will win and some will lose.


Tropical Cyclone Heat Potential


Global Warming Not Featured in New Hurricane Study

This week's Science paper by Hoyos, Agudelo, Webster and Curry again uses data on global hurricane intensity since 1970. They report that the global increase in category 4 and 5 hurricanes is linked to SST but not any of the other factors.

The authors base their case on the observation that SSTs are increasing in all ocean basins over the period of record, but the other key hurricane-development variables they examined do not show consistent relationships across the same basins. For example, in the six ocean basins they examined, the authors found a significant increase in atmospheric moisture levels in the East Pacific only, and vertical wind shear (the change in wind height) only weakened significantly in the North Atlantic (more on this observation later).


Figure 1. The trend in a measure of atmospheric stability (the more positive the index, the more stable the atmosphere). A more unstable atmosphere is better for hurricane intensification. The downward trend evident in five of the six tropical cyclone basins indicates that almost uniformly, conditions are getting better for producing more strong storms. Universally, climate models run with increasing carbon dioxide level predict the exact opposite behavior (source: Hoyos et al., 2006, Supplementary Material)

A major hurricane is a very unique event — a lot of disparate factors must become organized in just the right way to allow a major storm to develop. While high SSTs are one critical ingredient, they alone are insufficient to generate a whopper storm. SSTs have been increasing since 1970, as have major hurricanes, but the connection is not nearly as simple as some authors are suggesting. And careful scrutiny of ALL of the available data shows the connection to global warming is less than tenuous.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.





posted on Apr, 4 2006 @ 06:27 PM
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Doctor Hurricane's, William M. "Bill" Gray, PhD., report is out and he concludes global warming is not responsible for the increases in hurricane volatility and volume.


Is Global Warming Responsible for the Large Upswing in 2004-2005 US Hurricane Landfalls?

There is no physical basis for assuming that global hurricane intensity or frequency is necessarily related to global mean surface temperature changes of less than ± 0.5oC. As the ocean surface warms, so too does global upper air temperatures to maintain conditionally unstable lapse-rates and global rainfall rates at their required values. Seasonal and monthly variations of sea surface temperature (SST) within individual storm basins show only very low correlations with monthly, seasonal, and yearly variations of hurricane activity. Other factors such as tropospheric vertical wind shear, surface pressure, low level vorticity, mid-level moisture, etc. play more dominant roles in explaining hurricane variability than do surface temperatures. Although there has been a general global warming over the last 30 years and particularly over the last 10 years, the SST increases in the individual tropical cyclone basins have been smaller than the overall global warming (about half) and, according to the observations, have not brought about any significant increases in global major tropical cyclones except for the Atlantic which as has been discussed, has multi-decadal oscillations driven primarily by changes in Atlantic salinity. No credible observational evidence is available or likely will be available in the next few decades which will be able to directly associate global surface temperature change to changes in global hurricane frequency and intensity.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Doc Gray's accuracy last year was about as good as a chimp throwing darts. Makes me wonder if he's losing it or sold out to the anti-global warming fossil fuel cabal.

Dr. Gray's April 2005 prediction:
13 named storms
7 hurricanes
3 major hurrcanes

2005 Atlantic Hurrcane Season:
23 named storms
13 hurricanes
7 major hurrcanes

Dr. Gray accuracy:
56% named storms
53% hurricanes
42% major hurricanes

______________________

Gray stepped up his numbers in comparison to last April, even though he said the season will be less severe than last year. What's he really saying to the industry?

Dr. Gray's 2006 prediction:
17 named storms
9 hurricanes
5 major hurrcanes

The intangibles: Solar activity is on the rebound with the largest sunpot of the year appearing this week. www.spaceweather.com...



Regenmacher's 2006 Atlantic Hurricane Season prediction:
19 named storms
11 hurricanes
7 major hurricanes

*I'm being conservative and on the low side with my numbers.

NOAA REPORTS TORNADO SEASON STARTS BUSY



[edit on 23-4-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Apr, 11 2006 @ 11:23 AM
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Interesting article appeared in the Plam Beach paper today on the topic of global warming and hurricane activity.

www.palmbeachpost.com...



posted on Apr, 11 2006 @ 07:08 PM
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I was hoping this thread was going to talk about the electric nature of hurricanes and tornadoes and whatnot...



posted on Apr, 25 2006 @ 04:46 PM
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More scientists conlude that global warming is effecting tropical storm development.


Experts: Global warming behind 2005 hurricanes -CNN
MONTEREY, California (Reuters) -- The record Atlantic hurricane season last year can be attributed to global warming, several top experts, including a leading U.S. government storm researcher, said on Monday.

"The hurricanes we are seeing are indeed a direct result of climate change and it's no longer something we'll see in the future, it's happening now," said Greg Holland, a division director at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colorado.

Holland told a packed hall at the American Meteorological Society's 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology that the wind and warmer water conditions that fuel storms that form in the Caribbean are "increasingly due to greenhouse gases. There seems to be no other conclusion you can logically draw."

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


A rare cyclonic storm just formed in the Bay of Bengal too, which may point to an early start for the Northern Hemisphere's tropical season.

[edit on 25-4-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on Apr, 25 2006 @ 06:05 PM
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In addition to the budget cuts, I wonder if the evidence was suppressed by the Bush administration.

Nobody's commented on it, but as a scientist, I'm very aware of a lot of projects that got the axe (including some of the Human Genome project) because the Bush admin didn't like what they were saying. Do you guys remember the 2004 report by scientists (and confirming shrieks from the academic community) that the Bush admin was forcing rewrites and changing data when they didn't like it?
www.space.com...

Even the Pentagon warned of this!
www.commondreams.org...

The Democrats waved a smoking gun named "Exxon-Mobil" over this back in 2002:
democrats.reform.house.gov...



posted on Apr, 25 2006 @ 06:10 PM
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The Caribbean is warming nicely as areas are already over 80 degrees. At this rate it looks as if the 2006 season will be another for the record books.



posted on Apr, 25 2006 @ 07:01 PM
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I found the recent file from 27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology that was discussed in the CNN article above, if anyone wants to peruse it:

Tropical cyclone climatology in a global warming climate as simulated in a 20km–mesh global atmospheric model

More here:
27th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology (Expanded View)



posted on Apr, 25 2006 @ 07:27 PM
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Am I reading it correct that there would be fewer storms in the tropics but the ones that formed would be stronger?



posted on May, 3 2006 @ 11:11 AM
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This may shed some more light on the upcoming season, Indy.


AREA WHERE HURRICANES DEVELOP IS WARMER, SAY NOAA SCIENTISTS -NOAA

May 1, 2006 — The region of the tropical Atlantic where many hurricanes originate has warmed by several tenths of a degree Celsius over the 20th century, and new climate model simulations suggest that human activity, such as increasing greenhouse gas emissions into the atmosphere, may contribute significantly to this warming. This new finding is one of several conclusions reported in a study by scientists at the NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in Princeton, N.J., published today in the Journal of Climate.

"This very long-term increase in temperature may seem small but is comparable in magnitude to shorter time-scale, multi-decadal changes that many scientists now believe contribute strongly to an increase in hurricane activity in the Atlantic," said Thomas Knutson, lead author of the paper and a senior research meteorologist at GFDL. "The challenge is to understand the relative roles of anthropogenic and natural factors in producing these temperature changes—and this study is a step in that direction—and then to determine whether and how these long-term changes in temperature could be affecting Atlantic hurricane activity."

The results suggest that the century-scale warming tendency in the Main Development Region may have been caused largely by anthropogenic forcing, including increases in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Other sources of anthropogenic forcing include aerosols and land-use changes. Examples of natural effects are volcanic emissions, long-term variability of solar radiation, and internal variability, such as the internal processes within the climate system.

Please visit the link provided for the complete story.


Would say the trend is still for more volume and more intensity due to anthropogenic forcing (human caused weather anomalies).

I'm sure the debate shall continue on all this too....


[edit on 3-5-2006 by Regenmacher]



posted on May, 31 2006 @ 08:27 PM
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'GLOBAL WARMING' PROTESTERS CALL FOR RESIGNATION OF HURRICANE CENTER DIRECTOR

SILVER SPRING, MD – Hundreds of concerned citizens and leaders from across the nation will join Hurricane Katrina survivors Wednesday to call for the resignation of the .s of the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) at the NOAA Headquarters just outside of Washington, D.C. During an 11 a.m. demonstration, advocates will demand that NOAA stop covering up the growing scientific link between severe hurricanes and global warming while insisting on real solutions to the problem of global warming.

The protest comes at the start of the 2006 Hurricane season, which officials at the NHC predict will be “a hectic, above-normal tropical storm season.” Speeches begin at 11 a.m. EDT and protestors will carry dramatic props and photographs of Hurricane Katrina. A 37-hour demonstration will follow, lasting until midnight on June 1st, with picketing during the day and a candlelight vigil by night.

After a record four major hurricanes hit Florida in 2004, the 2005 hurricane season was even more devastating. Of the six most powerful hurricanes ever to hit America in the past 150 years, three occurred within 52 days in 2005. Yet, despite a flurry of peer-reviewed scientific studies linking planetary warming to storms like Katrina, leaders at NOAA and the NHC continue to claim that the recent hurricane devastation is part of a "natural cycle."

More...



Like this is a surprise....



posted on May, 31 2006 @ 08:46 PM
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Wow, in reading the first page of this thread, I thought there were at least a few points that I could still get across, but there is no need for that anymore, my knowledge has been surpassed by far on this. I appreciate this scientific debate more than you all could know, and I can't wait to take this out to my friends and even be able to deny ignorance outside of this website. I'm just thanking you all, there is really nothing I can add to the thread more than that at this point. You may help deny "ignunce" a little bit more in New Orleans. Thanks guys, it's a lot to soak in, but it's great!




posted on May, 31 2006 @ 08:55 PM
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Interesting...at first I thought, "Oh god, loam's bought into the media hub bub." But...looking further...the points made are valid, I and in the charts posted, there is a very visible climb. loam, I like you bought into this too, but I think my eyes are going to be shifting as well.

This was a great find, I'm definately wondering now!



posted on May, 31 2006 @ 09:03 PM
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Climatologists and meteorologists are split on whether global warming is a going to cause more storms and more intense hurricanes, the yaysayers say it already has. Twenty years from now Florida will be mostly underwater or much the same without a lot more people(we have enough already!) and we might be able to form a valid hypothesis about the THEORY of global warming. When we have a few quiet hurricane season again maybe the global cooling will make .lines again.

The fact is more people live in hurricane prone areas than ever before. Even a moderate storm will still be a problem and we have yet to see what a true monster of a hurricane can do to a populated area. The last category 5 to make landfall was Camille in '69. Katrina was a 3 at landfall and was NOT a direct hit to New Orleans.

I agree that the NHC tends to overestimate storms now. Andrew never should have been upgraded to a cat 5 TEN years after it made landfall. I would like to see the NHC issue a range of probable wind speeds and gusts versus what they have now and greater emphasis on the minimum central pressure and the pressure gradient. One thing is for certain, if the NHC wanted big numbers they would have classified the little swirl that made landfall south of Houston today.



posted on May, 31 2006 @ 09:07 PM
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Well, I missed a couple of posts on here...djohnsto has some very good points too, that this cycle they're claiming could be longer, but at the same time, if they were to assume it was a cycle, they'd have to have some form of records, now whether thats been posted around, I'm not sure. So in that department I'd say "yeah, it's still could be this, but this could also be true."

Another thing that might be worth pointing out is that, while yes, our tornado seasons did start with a bang here in the midwest, they weren't that far out of the ordinary. We just happened to have them earlier, which in fact is a cycle, that can be looked up. So I don't think it's right to say that tornadoes are effected.

I can't say for sure which end of the spectrum I believe, but I can say that I'm in a debate about this myself. I'll probably forget all about it though since I really don't care about hurricanes enough.




posted on May, 31 2006 @ 09:38 PM
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Originally posted by Shugo
Well, I missed a couple of posts on here...djohnsto has some very good points too, that this cycle they're claiming could be longer, but at the same time, if they were to assume it was a cycle, they'd have to have some form of records, now whether thats been posted around, I'm not sure. So in that department I'd say "yeah, it's still could be this, but this could also be true."


Very good point. If we are indeed to assume that this could possibly be a part of a much longer cycle, say 10,000 years, then we would need a point of reference to determine that. I doubt we have any 10,000 year old trees left on the coastal areas effected by these storms, so you couldn't check rings to show when stress from hurricanes occurred (which you could also check along with cycles that are of a much shorter duration to balance out telling how the tree responds, if in fact it does.)

I do feel that global warming, whether man-made, man-helped, or natural is playing a part in this, and that there needs to be some serious attention put on here. If we could figure out when storms are most likely to occur in the effected regions to show when we should be here, when we should not (imagine a 100+ year advance notice of a storm. . . whoa ho ho!) I know that this year, I have quite a fear of what may/may not happen. I don't intend to leave for anything Cat 2 or below, but that's another thread on its own. It's a mess here, which is why I am following this thread so closely.

Wouldn't there be geological records to somehow show with erosion of the shoreline over extended periods that there was indeed a cycle that was much longer? It seems as though there would be something, but then again, we are learning new information from geology almost on a daily basis. Just thought I would throw that into the pot.



and shugo, great avatar. something about it is just striking.



posted on May, 31 2006 @ 10:02 PM
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I can safely say that I do believe and always have that global warming is contributing if not the cause of intense hurricanes. So that matter remains with me.

I'll have to read more posts on here, and see what some of the experts with hurricanes and typhoons have to say about it, since this department in weather I'm not too 100% on.


-
Nite...thanks
fiance made the pic, I just made it into an avatar, tis my own personal character.



posted on Jun, 1 2006 @ 12:38 AM
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More fuel for the fire:




2 Studies Link Global Warming to Greater Power of Hurricanes

Climate researchers at Purdue University and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology separately reported new evidence yesterday supporting the idea that global warming is causing stronger hurricanes.

That claim is the subject of a long-running scientific dispute. And while the new research supports one side, neither the authors nor other climate experts say it is conclusive.

In one new paper, to appear in a coming issue of Geophysical Research Letters, Matthew Huber of the Purdue department of earth and atmospheric sciences and Ryan L. Sriver, a graduate student there, calculate the total damage that could be caused by storms worldwide, using data normally applied to reconciling weather forecast models with observed weather events.

More...



See also, Sea-Surface Warming Linked to Worse Tropical Storms Activity


Scientists to Bush: global warming boosting strong hurricanes

[edit on 1-6-2006 by loam]



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