Prior to the USS Cole incident, the US Navy used to be very forthcoming about ship deployments. After 9/11, the US Navy was very secretive about
deployments. Interestingly enough, over the past couple years the Navy has begun talking about deployments again, and last summer, oh about the time
that Iran starting talking tough, the US Navy started talking about their Navy deployments in detail. For the most part, few have commented on the
trend, but as a researcher, I have noticed.
People keep seeing signs, and think the US is about to attack Iran. I think they are reading the signs wrong. There are two attacks coming, first is
Al Qaeda against the US, and the second is potentially an Israeli against Iran.
Did you catch this?
Oman has agreed to give landing rights and parking facilities to Israeli warplanes
What about this?
Israeli special forces are working in Iran to locate the precise sites at which Iran continues to enrich uranium, a British newspaper reported
And not to be outdone, this came out last week.
The level of "chatter" by al Qaeda operatives is currently as high or higher than in the months prior to 9-11, and the question in many parts of the
U.S. and European intelligence communities is not if al Qaeda will strike again, but when. Much of the thinking centers on the near-term. This is also
reflected in current corporate security alerts being circulated among elite business establishments.
Want to check it yourself? No problem, most amateurs don't know who, what, where, or how to monitor Al Qaeda online, so pick your poison depending
Everyone who keeps saying 'soon' is right. Israel has 3 opportunities they may or may not choose to take this year, with the first coming in June,
the second comes in July, and the third in August. The thing is, Israel may not warn the US when they are going to strike, but they will do it when
they know the US is ready for it.
The USS Enterprise Strike Group is set to deploy in April to assume responsibility of the Persian Gulf region. They will maintain presence until
relieved by the USS Eisenhower, scheduled to deploy in late summer/early fall. The US Navy operates a carrier in the Gulf near Bahrain, and has since
2003 when the USAF removed all combat aircraft from Saudi Arabia. It is by far the most dangerous place for a carrier to operate in the world due to
shallow waters and limited maneuverability.
In June, the USS Kitty Hawk, USS Reagan, and USS Lincoln will be holding a 3 carrier exercise in the Pacific. It is the last exercise that will be
held for the Reagan on its maiden 6 month tour.
In July, at least two carriers will participate in "Pacific Rim" this year, most likely the Lincoln, but probably not the USS Reagan or USS Kitty
Hawk. "Pacific Rim" is a large multi-national naval maneuvers held near the Hawaiian Islands every two years. Ships from Australia, Chile, Japan,
South Korea, Peru and perhaps other nations will take part.
But in August... The US Navy is holding a very large carrier operation in the Pacific. It will include 3 West Coast carriers and an East Coast
Carrier, which will mark the first time an East Coast carrier has operated in the Pacific since Vietnam. I think it is interesting to note that in
August, the US will have 5 West Coast Carriers; the USS Kitty Hawk, USS Nimitz, USS Lincoln, USS Stennis, and USS Reagan available, with 3 scheduled
to be at sea, AND 4 East Coast carriers; the USS Enterprise, USS George Washington, USS Eisenhower, and USS Roosevelt all available at the same time
with 2 at sea, with the Kennedy being shut down, the Truman getting its 10 month dry dock, and the Vinson getting its 3 year overhaul, can anyone
remember the last time the US Navy would have 9 carriers certified for operations at the same time? The answer is, it has not happened since before
the Korean War.
The idea is, Israel attacks using air strikes utilizing facilities in Oman to support refueling for the strikes. The expectation is, as soon as Israel
attacks, they don't follow up, and let the rest take its coarse. The expectation is that Iran would lash out by attempting to shut down the Gulf, and
go after the ships in the Gulf. Israel then refocuses on Syria, if a backlash comes, it will come from that direction. No one will argue Israel's
right to defend itself from Syria, so Israel will get a free shot if Syria makes the wrong move.
The key is the flashback. The Naval ships in the Gulf this summer are going to be disproportional favoring allies, not US. There are 3 Task Forces
assigned to the 5th fleet of operations.
Combined Task Force 58 is in the northern Persian Gulf protecting Iraqi oil terminals, and will be led by the British followed by Singapore into the
summer, both countries using an LPD as a flagship. The US CG that supports the ESG in the region is almost always there for force protection,
additional assets this summer will come from the UK and Australia.
Combined Task Force 152 patrols the central and southern Persian Gulf. This Task Force is usually built upon components of the 5th fleet assets based
in Bahrain, the Carrier Strike Group in the area of operations (this summer it will be the USS Enterprise), and usually the '___' that is apart of the
ESG assigned to the Gulf Region. CTF 152 is a US only task force.
Combined Task Force 150 patrols the Gulf of Oman, North Arabian Sea, parts of the Indian Ocean, the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea. The US has been the
largest contributor of this task force since last summer until about 2 weeks ago, when the French Carrier Charles De Gaulle, from French Task Force
473 arrived for a 3 month tour. The US assets this summer will only be elements of the ESG in the region, and 2 other warships deployed towards
The French Task Force 473 3 month tour, of all things, puts the Charles De Gaulle IN the Persian Gulf in June, around the same time as the first US
exercise in the Pacific, in an exercise with the Saudi Navy. Interestingly enough, the Charles De Gaulle is escorted by 3 French warships, and 1 UK
Over the summer, the Netherlands, France, UK, Germany, Spain, Pakistan, and Greece will be contributing the majority of Naval assets to Combined Task
Force 150 between early June until late August.
This means, if Israel attacks in June, and Iran lashes out in the Gulf, the biggest most obvious target in the Gulf will be the French Carrier Charles
If Israel attacks in July or August, and Iran lashes out in the Gulf, the biggest most obvious target in the Gulf will be the USS Enterprise.
During any period this summer if Israel attacks and Iran lashes out to the Arabian Sea, the targets will almost certainly be European or Pakistani.
Keep in mind, that at the current 'take it slow' pace of the United Nations Security Council, it is unlikely any vote will take place until June,
which ironically enough, is the month that Denmark (you can't make this up) will be the president of the Security Council.
And people think the cartoon controversy doesn't mean anything...
You see, Israel's plan works perfectly if they do 1 strike and Iran lashes out in the Gulf. Think about the possibilities. If Iran attacks the
Charles De Gaulle or USS Enterprise without doing any damage, Iran becomes an enormous embarrassment to the entire Middle East, then gets the crap
kicked out of them for trying.
BUT, what if Iran attacks the Charles De Gaulle or the USS Enterprise and does significant damage? What will France's reaction be if the Charles De
Gaulle becomes an underwater grave in the Persian Gulf? What about Europe, or NATO? What will the reaction in the United States be if the USS
Enterprise is sunk? If Iran does what Japan never could do, sink the USS Enterprise, can anyone imagine the outrage? Not only will the star trek
lovers be demanding blood, but environmentalist are going to fit to be tied considering a nuclear powered ship just sank in the Persian Gulf. I've
been to peace rally's, some people actually wear trek gear to those rallies as daily attire, how many are going to protest for peace when the
Enterprise sinks? Never mind the potential for 5,000+ deaths.
If it doesn't happen this summer, it won't happen this year. There is an old saying; “Armatures talk strategy, while Professionals talk
logistics.” That applies to why the US won't start a war with Iran in 2006.
There are several very valid logistical military reasons why the US won't strike, and they are regarding military equipment availability, including
software updates to Patriot Batteries for allies in the Gulf region, the availability of unmanned mine hunting UUVs, and the completion of Virginia
class SSNs and Ohio class SSGNs currently completing work in the yards.
After all, with the Ohio SSGNs in 2007, the US can launch as many cruise missiles as they used the entire OIF from underwater stealth platforms Iran
can't even detect, allowing the surface fleet to overload Standards for defense instead of carrying Tomahawks for strike. Since the closest port to
reload surface fleet VLS is either in Europe, Australia, or Guam, it makes a huge difference to the US fighting a war from the sea in the Gulf.