I would have to say that china does have the capability. The real factor preventing this IS the U.S. presence.
China does NOT want a military confrontation with America....yet. They are fully aware of our defense agreement with Taiwan and they don't like it
For now they are just waiting for us to get too tied up elsewhere coughnorth koreacough to have the rescources to defend the island.
while I am far from the expert in these parts on military matters (thankfully others here are), I think the Chinese will bid their time for the most
Recently China has also shown great interest in improving its navy and stike capability. You are correct that logisitics are against the Chinese in
this endeavour. But it would be easy to emasculate Taiwan from China's perspective aka the Cuban Missile Crisis. Problem is how long could Taiwan
hold out and what would the US do in response.
In the past stories on this topic have tended to make China (like Russia), appear to be defending itself from the agressor but in reality we know who
the agressor really is.
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