Just how bad can bird flu get?

With only isolated dicoveries of bird flu in countries around the world, it leaves me to ask the question, just how bad can it get?

We hear talk of an potential epidemic, but surely in todays day and age, science would not let that happen...

....what do you think? Is it just scare mongering? Or does this influenza virus really have the potential to devastate the human race?

I'm not sure what kind of research you have done, but I've been following H5N1 development since Dec. 2002

H5N1 is a very robust virus that unlike other emerging pathogens that have died out, continues to seed itself throughout the world. By becomming endemic in various countries, it broadens the chances that it will recombine (not slowly "mutate" or "reassort") with other viruses that have an affinity for human cell receptors. Once that happens, effiecient H2H transmission will devastate the globe.

Right now H5N1 has four (4) distinct variants circulating, with an averge case fatality rate of 53%.

Now do the math...25% of the human population will become infected which equals 1.625 BILLION (world pop.=6.5billion)
Then 53% will die which equals....860 million world wide.

Thats based on worst case senario using H5N1's current virulence.

Compare that to the 1918 pandemic which had an approximate 3.5-5.0 case fatality rate.

Yeah, H5N1 has the potential to devastate our world as we know it.

[edit on 24-2-2006 by gman55 for spelling]

[edit on 24-2-2006 by gman55]

Bird flu is another tool used by govs to spread fear more people get hit by buses than die of bird flu.It will not mutate to a human to human strain but I'm no doctor.

Yeah but it shouldnt get to bad, i heard that for that to happen someone who already had a cold or some other ilness had to catch it for it to have a chance to mutate nd one country seems to have got rid of it

Dual infections would be required for H5N1 to aquire the needed polymorphism. It need not get these needed sequences from humans alone.

Here is the list of isolates that have appropriate nucleotide sequence to recombine with H5N1 to make the S227N polymorphism in HA that allows for efficient H2H transmission:

AY575869 A/Hong Kong/212/03 2003 H5N1
AB212054 A/Hong Kong/213/03 2003 H5N1
ISDN38262 A/Hong Kong/213/2003 2003 H5N1
AY575870 A/Hong Kong/213/2003 2003 H5N1
AY738456 A/ostrich/Eshkol/1436/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104453 A/turkey/Avigdor/1209/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104454 A/turkey/Avigdor/1215/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104458 A/turkey/Brosh/1276/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104455 A/turkey/Kfar Warburg/1224/03 2003 H9N2
DQ104464 A/chicken/Kfar Monash/636/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104450 A/turkey/Avichail/1075/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104473 A/turkey/Beit HaLevi/1009/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104451 A/turkey/Ein Tzurim/1172/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104462 A/turkey/Givat Haim/622/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104471 A/turkey/Givat Haim/868/02 2002 H9N2
AY548507 A/turkey/Givat Haim/965/02 2002 H9N2
AY738452 A/turkey/Givat Haim/965/02 2002 H9
DQ104459 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/615/02 2002 H9
AY548510 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/615/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104460 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/616/02 2002 H9
AY548511 A/turkey/Kfar Vitkin/616/02 2002 H9N2
AY548512 A/turkey/Mishmar Hasharon/619/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104461 A/turkey/Mishmar Hasharon/619/02 2002 H9
DQ104449 A/turkey/Naharia/1013/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104452 A/turkey/Sapir/1199/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104463 A/turkey/Yedidia/625/02 2002 H9
AY548513 A/turkey/Yedidia/625/02 2002 H9N2
DQ104448 A/turkey/Yedidia/911/02 2002 H9N2
AY548514 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/786/01 2001 H9N2
AY738454 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/786/01 2001 H9
DQ104465 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/809/01 2001 H9
AY548515 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/809/01 2001 H9N2
AY548500 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/811/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104467 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/811/01 2001 H9
AY548501 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/812/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104468 A/chicken/Tel Adashim/812/01 2001 H9
DQ104469 A/goose/Tel Adashim/829/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104470 A/goose/Tel Adashim/830/01 2001 H9N2
AY548499 A/turkey/Givat Haim/810/01 2001 H9N2
DQ104466 A/turkey/Givat Haim/810/01 2001 H9
DQ104472 A/chicken/Maale HaHamisha/90658/00 2000 H9N2
AY738451 A/turkey/Neve Ilan/90710/00 2000 H9
AY548502 A/turkey/Neve Ilan/90710/00 2000 H9N2
AF218108 A/Peking Duck/Malaysia/F20/1/98 1998 H9N2
AF218105 A/Peking Duck/Singapore/F91-5/9/97 1997 H9N2
AY206675 A/quail/Hong Kong/A28945/88 1988 H9N2

Notice that most of these are found in the avian population. The wider spread H5N1 gets, the better the chances are for "recombination" to occure.

Play it safe and read the other threads for preparing yourself.

Couldn't hurt!


[edit on 24-2-2006 by gman55]

monday I was sick pukeing fever of 103 and me and my wife went to a nin
concert and I was thinking if I had the bird flu how fast it could travel.
thair was people from allover the state of mi thair.

I just thought it was kind of scary to think about.

Your right to be scared. The event you described could be the one in which H5N1 gets its start. Imagine a concert in say..Italy were hundreds of thousands attend and it would only take one person like yourself to infect 10-50 people who would then infect 100-5000 and so forth....that one person would be the index case or the "Typhoid Mary" of the 21st century.

Read the posts dealing with "preparing for the pandemic". It could save your life and those others that depend on you.

I can be as bad as a fifty percent death rate.

Think if half the earth population was gone in a week.

It all depends on perspective. Where will most of the 860millions deaths eminate from? Will the most effected areas be in advanced nations?

Good point Intel...chances are that because of health care being better in the western nations, the third world would probably suffer the most. Unfortunately, this will impact everyone in a post pandemic world also.

Just think, when all is said and done and we have buried or burned the dead, what happens to the world? We have all the infastructure remaining on farms, factories and such, but how many will be left to run them? Who's going to farm the fields or run the press machines or deliver the goods to stores?

Theres a lot to ponder in a post pandemic world....

It doesnt care, it will be the whole world if it mutates.

Whatever the death rate it's likely to be a 3 month duration disease. That's 3 months without drivers, shopworkers, etc etc. while they recover, if they do.

A couple of years ago we had a fuel crisis in the UK due to people blockading fuel depots. With no strategic food reserve stores retained after the end on the cold war and supermarkets now operating on 'just in time' London had at one point 2 days of food stocks.

It's time to lay in supplies!

The fatality rate may be high, but the real problem will be chronic illness in survivors.

The world's nations already are overwhelmed by the costs of supporting people with chronic disease. This will break the camel's back. And there's more to come.


.

Clinically, there has NEVER been a viral entity that COULD convert to human to human transmission (i.e. had the genetic apparatus minus 1,2 or 3 gene sequences, that were readily available in other viruses, e.g. coryza, the common cold), THAT DID'NT. Think about that. H5N1 only needs a 1 or 2 gene sequence, that is possessed by many of its brothers (e.g. the cold virus) and it can readily "borrow" those; that's what viruses do, they borrow DNA and cellular components from others in order to obtain characteristic that enhance their survival. Forget all of the egghead discussions about probabilities, etc. most of that is from PhDs that suck off the government tit and have a vested interest in herding the sheep.
Take big doses of Vitamin C (e.g. 10+K mg per day in divided doses, as more than 4Kmg in a two hr period will get spilled by the kidneys); several studies that are not popularized in the BigPharma press have shown efficacy specifically with H5N1; tamiflu is also efficacious but the elites will have all of that hoarded as they do now. Its coming!!!
MD in TN

My understanding is that after the Great Black Plague that killed half of Europe, the renisaunce came to be. Crops and foods that were not viable because of demand were grown for the first time such as apples and other fruits. Becuase there were less people for the everday tasks many were forced to invent new time saving machines. I am in no way saying that a modern day global killer flew is a good idea. However the long term outcome could usher in a new age for modern man. On the other hand it could cause just the opposite with all the advanced tech laying around.

True, but i caution everybody to take a look at the differences between then and now, there was no media scare, no emergency plans, no global transportation network (which could speed things up mightily), and last but not least, their agriculture did not rely on fertilizer from fossil fuels and since 90% or more were farmers anyway, survivors of the plague could basically go ahead as usual.

If all things remain consistant with the 1918 pandemic, you can expect 2-3 waves of H5N1 to circulate around the globe with each "wave" taking 2-3 months to cycle...thus If I were you, I would prepare for AT LEAST 6 months of provisions and to be safe I would stock pile for 12 months.

Right on Doc!
The S227N polymorphism will become part of the HA in H5N1 sooner or later.....

BTW Elderberry wine or it's extract inhibits viral reproduction...so drink up! Unfortunately I only have the extract