My opinion on why there is no United Ireland.

Well, I believe that Tony Blair is right not to wipe his hands clean of Northern Ireland simply due to the fact that their would be a huge war here, which the loyalists would retailate and shoot down every Catholic they see, remember its only the IRA who have surrendered.

So I believe that Tony should keep these talks going and maybe we shall see a fifferent Northern Ireland, what do you think?

Originally posted by speight89
Well, I believe that Tony Blair is right not to wipe his hands clean of Northern Ireland simply due to the fact that their would be a huge war here, which the loyalists would retailate and shoot down every Catholic they see, remember its only the IRA who have surrendered.

So I believe that Tony should keep these talks going and maybe we shall see a fifferent Northern Ireland, what do you think?

Excellent thread, (lets hope it doesnt get trashed)

I see what you mean, of course, there would be chaos if Ulster was left alone. To focus on the loyalists is abit baised and if i recall the IRA still have weapons and funding themselves (so much for surrounder?) But lets not get involved on Loyalist Vs Republicans here, it would ruin an excellent thread you have started.

You are right though and i even think the same as you, it would be chaos if there was a split. But it is true, that if there was going to be a United Ireland, the loyalist community would make a very,very,very fuss about joining up.

...speight89, why can't we have peace?

[edit on 22-2-2006 by infinite]

Firstly I have to say that I see no "surrender" here.

IMO the IRA have not surrendered anymore than Paisley's frequent claims that the British have surrendered are true.
(Paisley regularly claims the British have surrendered but recently described the disbanding of the so-called 'home' RIR as 'the final surrender'.)

There has been a negotiated and agreed process of 'demilitarisation', not a surrender by anyone.
It took years to make happen, decades even.

To make claims about a surrender is, at best, IMO simply to trivialise what happened and at worst to use language deliberately designed to antagonise......something we can well do without here especially in view of the fact that it is still on-going.
Loyalists have been openly discussing disbandment.

LOYALIST decommissioning could happen within six to eight weeks, according to a senior UDA source. The organisation and its political wing, the Ulster Political Research Group (UPRG), have been in contact with the British government in the past weeks and are hoping for a positive outcome.

“There have been eight meetings with the British government representatives since January 10,” said the source. “Everything is on the table and the pace of contact is increasing.” The UDA has also met General John de Chastelain’s decommissioning body within the past fortnight.

Sources say the organisation’s ruling inner council is seeking to cut all links with crime in return for “confidence building” investments by the government in loyalist areas. “Things are going smoothly; the inner council is isolating drug dealers and doing away with criminality,” said a source in the group.

www.timesonline.co.uk..." target="_blank" class="postlink" rel="nofollow"> www.timesonline.co.uk...

Loyalists in talks on standing down
But imminent guns handover is ruled out

By David Gordon

30 January 2006
Cautiously optimistic signals were being given today on the prospects for loyalist paramilitary organisations announcing an end to their activities.

But speculation over an imminent move on decommissioning by the UDA was being strongly discounted by informed sources.

Internal discussions are known to be under way within both the UDA and UVF on their futures, in the light of moves by the IRA.

Dialogue has also being taking place between senior UDA representatives and both the British Government and General John de Chastelain's decommissioning body.

A source close to the Loyalist Commission, an umbrella group that involves both the UDA and UVF, today said progress is being made.

"Both sides are moving in the right direction - the UDA is probably moving faster than the UVF at present," he revealed.

www.belfasttelegraph.co.uk...

Each side has made serious and very significant moves to demilitarise; the republican movement has gotten the IRA to decommission and is now committed to pursuing progress through political means alone and the British government has approved power sharing, is engaged in removing most military installations, changed the Police and is engaging with nationalist and republicans and the Irish republic on a proper and serious basis.

Republicans will always have funds, they have support from all around the globe prepared to donate towards their 'cause'.......and so long as they pursue political means, so what?

As for the claims about some IRA arms being retained?
Like I said on another thread, de Chastelain said he witnessed and catalogued significant and substantial amounts of weapons be put beyond use, note too that none of these new claims actually make any comment about anything beyond a small quantity of arms being retained.

The IRA is not equipped for another 'war' and (as repeated Police and intelligence reports make clear) is not interested in starting another 'war'......and the same applies to the Loyalists.
There is some criminal activity but to describe either 'side' as in any condition to fight community V community is IMO very very wide of the mark.

Were 'Britain to leave' I do not believe the traditional 'sky falling in' predictions are correct.
I grew up here being told there would be a 'bloodbath' if Britain left.
Frankly I don't believe it.
IMO we had one with Britain still here.
I seriously doubt any possible future being worse than the experience we have just had......and having come from that I don't see anyone (sane) seriously wanting to repeat the experience (or it worse), the consequences of what we had are bad enough.

Obviously there would be some trouble/disruption but I think it would only be for a short time until those doing it woke up to the fact that the Irish republic couldn't be bombed into making the UK take NI back and that nor would the UK be receptive to being attacked to make her take NI back.
When it's over it'll be over.

When the time comes (I think a UI is very definitely a question of when and not if) and the border poll finally has Britain set the date the change will occur I cannot see how loyalist violence would either be tolerated or even have any point anyway.

IMO this is all about normalising British-Irish relations.

We in Britain and Ireland have such a huge amount of connection and familial relations that the idea of a vast sectarian murder-spree and civil war of the kind the doomsayers have predicted for years being allowed to happen just doesn't seem to me to be possible.
In fact, in part thanks to NI's isolation during 'the 30yrs of the troubles', British familial relationships with Irish people from the Irish republic far out-number the familial relationships with those who see themselves as British from NI.
(Approx 5 million people living in the UK describe themselves as of Irish descent in the last census verses the 8-900 000 NI British).

We already saw last autumn what 'Loyalism' was capable of.
Self-destructiveness within their 'own communities' and very little else besides.
Even Drumcree wound down to an unnoticed protest when they became too much of an inconvenience for the majority (especially within those they claimed as their 'own community').

That IMO is part of the recognition that each side has had to come to accept.
Neither can 'defeat' the other militarily and neither has quite as much 'power' as they once imagined they had.

If the Loyalists were to attempt to attack the nationalist and republican communities in the way some think I could only imagine a combined British and Irish response targeted at the Loyalists (just as much effort by police and intel forces is aimed at them now).
They would be contained and able to do nothing.......except watch the changes happen anyway and then be faced with accepting those changes or not.


[edit on 23-2-2006 by sminkeypinkey]

To focus on the loyalists is abit baised

You must remember that it is the loyalists who want Northern Ireland to stay in the U.K and the Republicans want a United Ireland so it is a bit obvious that they will trash the place basically in anger and frustration.

...speight89, why can't we have peace?

I believe that the trouble is mostly caused by people who have too much time on their hands, particurally the youths. Although the sectarian attacks are gradiually increaseing, there is an increase in racist and homophobic attacks. So my opinion on the Northern Ireland issues are that it will always be a troubled country and the only way that it will be resolved are through the education system, and even that will take far too long to be set up and the cross community relations to be fully restored, if even 50% restored to what it should be.

Originally posted by speight89
I believe that the trouble is mostly caused by people who have too much time on their hands, particurally the youths. Although the sectarian attacks are gradiually increaseing, there is an increase in racist and homophobic attacks. So my opinion on the Northern Ireland issues are that it will always be a troubled country and the only way that it will be resolved are through the education system, and even that will take far too long to be set up and the cross community relations to be fully restored, if even 50% restored to what it should be.

I agree
An increase in North and South relation may help to ease the system, but i strongly feel that education is a key to solving problems. I have not been over home for about 7 years, so i don't know about the sectarian attacks.

You only have to look back to the summer and the chaos that happened when they re-routed a March.

Originally posted by infinite
You only have to look back to the summer and the chaos that happened when they re-routed a March.

- I'll agree that that was, once again, a far from 'normal' situation (by the standards of just about everywhere in Europe outside of NI).

But, by the standards of NI it was actually very localised and pretty much short-term events.

Things have been far far worse. The first 3 Drumcree protests for instance.
The place was (in most of the unionist parts) pretty much closed down.
Road blocks 'manned' by young thugs and people being turned back and sent home (or even attacked if they questioned or objected to being ordered about like that).

I well remember the 'ghost town effect' all the way from Aldergrove airport through Belfast and onward coming back from England on the Sunday morning just after the Quinn children were killed. Literally almost no-one on the streets or roads at all on a sunny Sunday afternoon for over 40miles.
Communal fear writ large.
Unreal.

We can at least say we are past that madness.

Much as some tried the 'interface' attacks did not provoke the other and fairly quickly petered out as the more sane members of the respective communities (many ex-paramilitaries) cooperated with the Police and got some sort of calm established.

The bulk of what went on was confined to self-harming destruction within the loyalist community.
Obviously not a good thing and symptomatic of great dysfunction but for all that hardly the foundation of a civil war either.

[edit on 23-2-2006 by sminkeypinkey]

The blockcade effect, i do recall. My mother was born and raised in Ulster, she recalls and just told me stories of when the UDA use to block off roads in Ballycraigy

Well, it seems all the troubles occur around marches and the time they go around. I am planning to go over home this year for 12th July parade, i have been to numerous parades when i was child...i dont rememeber any trouble, but i was about 8 at the time (1994)

For your own safety stay away from the Republican areas where the parade's will pass, there will be guaranteed trouble! The Republicans and Loyalists, are not fond of the "other kind" entering their areas.

Originally posted by speight89
For your own safety stay away from the Republican areas where the parade's will pass, there will be guaranteed trouble! The Republicans and Loyalists, are not fond of the "other kind" entering their areas.

im more Irish than English, three quarters. And my family, plus me, come from a loyalist area.

to behonest, i have never had problems, i loose the accent very quickly. And my mother is from Ulster anyways.

Even when i did speak, no one cared i had an English accent. Only problems i had was in the Republic Of Ireland, visiting a town that was on the border...i got very harsh looks.

[edit on 23-2-2006 by infinite]